TD Humberto:Advisories=Last advisory written by HPC

[Chacor]

897
WTNT24 KNHC 121444
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2007

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF
CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 95.2W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 95.2W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.6N 95.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.8N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.4N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.7N 91.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 95.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

146
WTNT34 KNHC 121445
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF
CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE DEPRESSION WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...95.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

542
WTNT44 KNHC 121447
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

RADAR...SATELLITE...AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR IMAGERY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI AND
HOUSTON SHOW A LOOSE BANDING STRUCTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANTS...WHILE THE NORTHWEST WINDS FROM NOAA BUOY
42019 INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LIKELY HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY... TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED. WITH 38 KT WINDS REPORTED FROM SHIP V7DI7...THE SYSTEM
MIGHT ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THOSE WINDS
ARE JUDGED AS UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT FOR NOW...WITH A BETTER READ ON
THE INTENSITY EXPECTED WHEN A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES IN
THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A
LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING
FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5. THE DEPRESSION IS ROUNDING
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO IN THE SHORT
TERM...ALTHOUGH WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE AFTER
DAY 2 IS LESS CLEAR. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS DETACH THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WESTERLIES AND LINGER IT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHERE IT
COULD REPRESENT A PROLONGED RAINFALL THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 28.1N 95.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 28.6N 95.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 29.8N 95.0W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0000Z 31.4N 94.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.7N 91.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where is out map Brent?

[southerngale]

[Andrew92]

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Public Advisory
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 121736
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
100 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS
TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 145
MILES...235 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO SHOULD BE
CROSSING THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RETURNED TO BASE FOR MECHANICAL
REASONS...BUT A SECOND AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HUMBERTO
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...95.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




Humberto is born.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2007

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 94.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 94.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 95.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.4N 94.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.3N 92.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 94.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
400 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF HUMBERTO SHOULD BE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF
HUMBERTO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...28.6 N...94.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION OF HUMBERTO HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE CORE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DO NOT YET REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...BUT SFMR DATA...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SHIP
REPORTS...SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT. THERE WERE A FEW
HIGHER SFMR WIND REPORTS IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT...BUT TWO DROPSONDES IN THAT BAND DID NOT CONFIRM THOSE
HIGHER WIND ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A LIGHT-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. THE
PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE OVER WATER...AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT HUMBERTO WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME OVER WATER TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/5. THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND HUMBERTO MAY HAVE ROUNDED THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
INDUCE A FURTHER TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO COULD
DETACH FROM THE WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS AND LINGER NEAR THE GULF
COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 28.6N 94.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.4N 94.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 93.9W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.3N 92.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
700 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...RAIN BANDS OF HUMBERTO SPREADING OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO SHOULD BE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF
HUMBERTO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...28.8 N...94.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT TEXAS
WESTWARD IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 94.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 94.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.1N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.6N 92.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.5N 91.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 94.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS ITS CENTER APPROACHES THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SARGENT TEXAS
WESTWARD IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES... 40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD BE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA EARLY ON THURSDAY.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND WINDS COULD BE
APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A SMALL AREA CLOSE TO WHERE THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF
HUMBERTO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...29.0 N...94.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

HOUSTON WSR-88D VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS
INTENSIFIED. SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 65 TO 70 KT WINDS AROUND THE
3000 FT LEVEL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE
CENTER. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 55 KT
WHICH WILL BE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. RADAR REFLECTIVITY
DATA INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL EARLY ON
THURSDAY...AND WINDS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A
SMALL AREA NEAR HUMBERTO'S CENTER WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

BASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05 IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HUMBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER
48 HOURS. BASED MAINLY ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 29.0N 94.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 30.1N 93.9W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0000Z 31.6N 92.7W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1200Z 32.5N 91.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1215 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COVER SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF CENTER...

AT 1215 AM CDT...0515Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR HUMBERTO MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1215 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...30
KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS...AND ABOUT 15 MILES...20 KM...SOUTH
OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80
MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HUMBERTO IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 992
MB...29.29 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF
HUMBERTO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 1215 AM CDT POSITION...29.4 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA



229
WTNT24 KNHC 130532
TCMAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
0515 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

AT 1215 AM CDT...0515Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR HUMBERTO MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 94.4W AT 13/0515Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 94.4W AT 13/0515Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.1N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.6N 92.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.5N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 94.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

[Coredesat]

WTNT44 KNHC 130856
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
500 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST
OF HIGH ISLAND AROUND 0700 UTC THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION...AND ON THE
FINAL LEG OUT A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL...850 MB...WIND OF 98 KT WAS
REPORTED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...OR AROUND 75 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB. SINCE LANDFALL...
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE
EYE FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST BAND OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND HUMBERTO WILL NOW BEGIN ITS
WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7. HUMBERTO IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP HUMBERTO OR ITS REMNANTS LINGERING AROUND THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF COAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS REASONING AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS
SCENARIO COULD POSE A SERIOUS RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...AND THE REMAINING HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNGRADED OR LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.9N 94.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.9N 93.5W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0600Z 32.2N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1800Z 32.7N 90.2W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0600Z 32.3N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131148
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
700 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

...HURRICANE HUMBERTO ENTERING SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

THESE COASTAL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST OR ALONG THE TEXAS-
LOUISIANA BORDER ABOUT 25 MILES... 35 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. HUMBERTO IS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HUMBERTO IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30
KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE SUBSIDING TODAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...30.3 N...93.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...ALL COASTAL HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 93.2W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 93.2W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 93.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.6N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.6N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.0N 87.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 93.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

...HUMBERTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...ALL COASTAL HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL
OCCURRING INLAND NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO. FOR STORM
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND HUMBERTO SHOULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA TO
VERMILLION BAY TODAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...30.6 N...93.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES FARTHER INLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST...AND SO THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED.
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE...ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. THIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH COLLECTIVELY HAVE HAD A
LEFT BIAS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THE CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 30.6N 93.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 31.6N 91.7W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/1200Z 32.6N 89.8W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 92.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 92.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.3N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.9N 88.6W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.9N 86.4W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 92.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN