Tropical Depression INGRID: Threat Area : Northern Leewards

[HurricaneQueen]

Please know that I will be thinking about all of you in the Eastern Caribbean. We just left SXM after our annual two week stay. I consider that our second home and after experiencing Luis in 1995, am very aware of weather issues in that gorgeous part of the world.

Stay safe,
Lynn

Lynn,thank you for those words.Hopefully this does go away from the islands and goes fishing without afecting anyone.But because of the uncertainties of the track of this system all the members of this storm2k board who live in the islands in the Eastern Caribbean,From Puerto Rico eastward then down to Trinidad and Tobago should watch this closely have to follow closely what TD 8 maybe TS Ingrid soon is doing.

Luis,

I consider myself a part time Antillian (wish it were full time) and have the same reaction as all Caribbean residents when I hear that it won't affect land, ignoring the fact that the islands are in the direct path. So, please know that anytime any of you are threatened, you are in my thoughts and prayers. Tropical weather is certainly a love/hate relationship!!!

Please stay safe!
Lynn

P.S. I spent the night two weeks ago on your lovely island in San Juan when our plane had mechanical difficulties. We've been there before but I'd love to get back and also to Culebra to visit MJ.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER EIGHT...CURRENTLY
NEAR 46 WEST...IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS...AND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
DEPRESSION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS IT IS FORECAST TO NEAR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

From the San Juan NWS discussion.

[cycloneye]

I am mantaining this thread until the last advisory comes it that happens,and if is still alive, until the system clears the latitud of the Northern Leewards.

[cycloneye]

Even though the track from NHC of Tropical Storm Ingrid is well NE of the Northern Leewards,this thread will be here until Ingrid clears the 18.6n latitud,the most north position of the northern Leewards.

[CrazyC83]

Even though the track from NHC of Tropical Storm Ingrid is well NE of the Northern Leewards,this thread will be here until Ingrid clears the 18.6n latitud,the most north position of the northern Leewards.

Good idea, after all some islands are still in the cone.

[bvigal]

Good morning, neighbors! A special "Hello" and "thank-you!" to always-vigilant, and very hard-working Luis!

I agree, we can't stop watching this until it is much further north. There is always a level of uncertainty, and the latitude is still too low to ignore.

However, my mood this morning is good. Over the last 3 days, NHC's performance on intensity forecasting has been dead on. I'd have to say the track itself is less a certainty, but only beyond 3 days, I have pretty high confidence in the 3-day official track.

So, even if it did curve and come here, I feel fairly confident we would only be dealing with at TD, or at best, a weak TS, not a monster. When there is a storm out there with even the remote possiblity of hitting us as a major, that's what keeps me awake all night, refreshing the floater!

[Gustywind]

Good morning, neighbors! A special "Hello" and "thank-you!" to always-vigilant, and very hard-working Luis!

I agree, we can't stop watching this until it is much further north. There is always a level of uncertainty, and the latitude is still too low to ignore.

However, my mood this morning is good. Over the last 3 days, NHC's performance on intensity forecasting has been dead on. I'd have to say the track itself is less a certainty, but only beyond 3 days, I have pretty high confidence in the 3-day official track.

So, even if it did curve and come here, I feel fairly confident we would only be dealing with at TD, or at best, a weak TS, not a monster. When there is a storm out there with even the remote possiblity of hitting us as a major, that's what keeps me awake all night, refreshing the floater!

Hi bv gal how are you , me i'm fine tkanks!
Absolutely we shoul have to wait and see what pan's out with miss Ingrid, seems a little versatile with my eyes untrained eyes, so if it's not a monster but ...the cone of incertitudes is always wide....i'm monitoring ingrid in case of i dont' let my guard down with the complex synopsis there's plenty of time to watch it ....see you you....

[cycloneye]

All the islands are now out of the cone of probability.However,the thread will remain open until the center passes the 18.6n latitud,the most north latitud of the northern Leewards.

[cycloneye]

Even though the threat from now Tropical Depression Ingrid has diminished,until the low level center passes the 18.6n latitud,this thread will remain here.It was at 11 AM EDT at:

16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST

[cycloneye]

Is not over for us in the northern islands as it continues to move mainly west at 275 degrees.As long is below the latitud of the northern islands,we must continue to watch how TD Ingrid is moving.

[bvigal]

Luis is correct in stating we must continue to watch this. I just did some charting. If the track continues west, some of us may be in the "cone" of error. From the 5pm advisory track, distances in nautical miles from forecast point:
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.8N 58.0W -- Antigua 225, Basse-Terre, Guadeloupe 241
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 59.5W -- Antigua 176, Guadeloupe 222, St. Martin and St. Kitts 211
Nearest point on entire track to ANY island, at 19.2N 59.85W is 148nm from Barbuda(Antigua)
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 60.5W -- St. Martin 188, Antigua 190
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 62.0W -- Anegada, BVI 237

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4...
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 23.5N 63.0W -- Anegada 297, Charlotte Amalie 330, San Juan 351

Of course, a depression or weak storm, like I said before, is not as nerve-wracking as watching a hurricane approaching the neighborhood, with tropical storm force winds that extend miles out from the center!

[cycloneye]

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST OR ABOUT
405 MILES...650 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.


Still below many of the islands in the northern Leewards.Lets see if on sunday,finnally it surpasses the 18.6n latitud to then say goodbye from the islands.

[cycloneye]

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...BUT A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


Continues to be slow to reach the 18.6n latitud goal to end the threat to us.

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2007

...INGRID MAINTAINING 35 MPH WINDS...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT
260 MILES...415 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...BUT A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Antigua and Barbuda observations

NNE winds there but anything strong yet.

[Gustywind]

Antigua and Barbuda observations

NNE winds there but anything strong yet.

Absolutely in Guadeloupe too:
Guadeloupe observations:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html

[Gustywind]

Winds from NW (320°) at 10kt in Guadeloupe Raizet

[cycloneye]

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
500 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2007

...DISORGANIZED INGRID MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES...340 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE
TO THE LEFT OF OUR FORECAST TRACK. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE CYCLONE AROUND 0000
UTC AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 170254
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2007

...INGRID WEAKENS JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.


No shelters have to be put. But as msbee said,some of the islands are in deficit of rainfall,so it wont be bad if what is left of Ingrid pours some showers but nothing more than that.