TD ex-WIPHA (WPAC) - LANDFALL

[Chacor]

NRL: 135 kts, 922 mb.

[Chacor]

Latest JTWC fix:

894
TPPN10 PGTW 180026

A. SUPER TYPHOON 13W (WIPHA)

B. 17/2330Z

C. 24.4N/0

D. 123.6E/2

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (17/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 20NM WMG EYE WITH A WHITE SURROUNDING
RING YIELDS A EYE OF 6.0. ADDED EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 1.0.
DT EQUALS 7.0. DBO DT. PT AGREES. UNREP MET EQUALS 6.0.

VIAULT

[WindRunner]

928 hPa from earlier tells me that the JMA should have raised the intensity further, which they didn't - still 930 hPa at 00z.

Yeah, that made me mad. The one time we actually had data to prove the JMA too weak they ignore it. Sad thing is that the 928 was almost back into the eyewall, and they measured 929 while on one of the edges of the eyewall . . . I definately think a pressure drop would have been appropriate, even if they didn't up the winds.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say closer to 920 mililbars right now. With winds of maybe 140 knots.

[Chacor]

JTWC's going for a direct hit (44 nautical miles) on Taipei right now as a 135 kt super typhoon. Taipei should already be experiencing some of this weather.

RCTP 180230Z 34024G35KT 2200 SHRA SCT005 BKN009 OVC015 26/24 Q0990 WS RWY06 TEMPO 3200 SHRA

[CrazyC83]

I'd say its real pressure is around 914mb...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The trough has caught it, the system is now moving northwestward. In should turn northward or north-northwestward in the next 12 hours. I think.

[wxmann_91]

Looks like some dry air has intruded into Wipha's core. (from downsloping off Taiwan's mountains) Or ERC. Anyhow it looks a lot less impressive now than it did 6 hr ago.

[Chacor]

559
WTPQ21 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0712 WIPHA (0712)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 25.7N 122.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 260NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 29.7N 119.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 200600UTC 37.0N 121.9E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Also spare a thought for the 5 million+ citizens of Wenzhou, China and several million more in the surrounding area who are going to feel the full force of Wipha tonight

[Coredesat]

Not an ERC, as the eyewall has opened up:



Wipha definitely appears to be weakening.

[apocalypt-flyer]

How very dry air Katrina esque. Still, storm surge should be about 15 feet at least. That'll be a WET night for those poor guys in China and Taiwan

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah, the dry air from inside china is being pulled into the cirulation. It would have to move very fast for that not to happen...

[WindRunner]

As of 1139z, just over an hour ago . . .



Definately not good for intensity, but very very good for the folks on the Chinese mainland.

[Chacor]

Weakened pretty quickly.

Down to 85 kts, up to 950 hPa.

WTJP22 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0712 WIPHA (0712) 950 HPA
AT 26.2N 121.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 28.3N 119.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 31.6N 119.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 39.4N 125.1E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

The Women's World Cup in China has been affected:

http://cn.fifa.com/womenworldcup/organi ... 99083.html

由于台风韦帕可能造成的肆虐,在和中国组委会和中国当地相关部门进行磋商后,国际足联决定对FIFA2007年中国女足世界杯的赛程进行如下调整:

第21场比赛，挪威队对加纳队的比赛将于9月20日17：00在杭州进行（原定于19日在上海进行）

第24场比赛，巴西队对丹麦队的比赛将于9月20日20：00在杭州进行（原定于19日在杭州进行）

Due to Typhoon Wipha's possible impact, in consultation with the Chinese organising committee and Chinese local authorities, FIFA has decided that the FIFA 2007 Women's World Cup schedule requires adjustments:

Match 21, between Norway and Ghana, will be held at 17:00 on September 20 in Hangzhou (originally scheduled for the 19th in Shanghai)

Match 24, between Brazil and Denmark, will be held at 20:00 on September 20 in Hangzhou (originally scheduled for the 19th in Hangzhou).

[marysueprc]

Greetings from Shanghai. I apologize if this is an inappropriate posting but I am hoping someone can point me to some up-to-date information regarding the storm and what I can expect. My Mandarin skills are pretty much at the level of a 2-year old so I can't really figure out what is going on based on the official announcements (and the satellite tv stopped working

Should I expect to freak out later tonight or instead plan to drift off to sleep listening to the soothing sound of rain?

Regards,

Mary Sue

p.s. just ignore me if I have strayed outside the board's posting parameters.

[dizzyfish]

Hopefully you can find information that will help you here. https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

Maybe someone who is more proficient in this area will see your question and can help you more.

[miamicanes177]

Thank goodness for the extreme rapid weakening just prior to landfall. With the exception of Felix and Dean which thankfully hit sparsely populated areas, humans have experienced amazing luck with the rapid decay of major hurricanes in the last hours before landfall.

[Chacor]

Greetings from Shanghai. I apologize if this is an inappropriate posting but I am hoping someone can point me to some up-to-date information regarding the storm and what I can expect. My Mandarin skills are pretty much at the level of a 2-year old so I can't really figure out what is going on based on the official announcements (and the satellite tv stopped working

Should I expect to freak out later tonight or instead plan to drift off to sleep listening to the soothing sound of rain?

Regards,

Mary Sue

p.s. just ignore me if I have strayed outside the board's posting parameters.

Right now, the track of the typhoon is uncertain. Shanghai's meteorologists claim they will get the passage of the eye, but this seems unlikely based on the latest tracks from both the Japan Met Agency and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

The JTWC's latest track has most of the core of the storm missing Shanghai, in fact, with Shanghai barely in the tropical storm wind radius (40 mph). Shanghai will probably get not as high winds as the Chinese mets say they will, but the real problem will be rain and flooding.

You should be prepared to evacuate if ordered or if necessary, otherwise just stay put and wait for the storm to pass.

[MiamiensisWx]

Welcome, Mary Sue!

Personally, I would not write this system off because it rapidly weakened before landfall. If you have knowledge of China's geography, you would not make that statement. Wipha will be interacting with a front to the NW. I would not be surprised if we see excessive precipitation. This storm has a great low-level inflow structure. This scenario can easily produce several deaths - look back at TY Saomai and other storms. A Category 1-equivalent typhoon can be a big situation here because of the flooding threat. Dry air intrusion can help the situation, but I would remain alert.

Vapor image (NRL)