EPAC: Tropical Depression Ivo=Last Advisory

[RattleMan]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220848
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

AFTER SEVERAL HOURS WITHOUT CONVECTION...A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
HAS FORMED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF IVO. HOWEVER...WESTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM...WITH SATELLITE CLOUD
MOTIONS INDICATING 20-25 KT OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING
ON THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB
AND 55 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON ON THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 50 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 030/5. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND AN EAST-WEST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 15N SOUTH OF
IVO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF IVO. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY SPREAD. THE ECMWF
TURNS IVO SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATES IT. THE GFS STALLS IVO NEAR ITS
CURRENT LOCATION AND DISSIPATES IT. THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST A
SLOW MOTION TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN 2-3 DAYS...
WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS BAJA AND INTO THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION AND SHEAR...THE
FORECAST TRACK AGAIN CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...
REACHING BAJA IN 2-3 DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS APPARENTLY ARE UNDERFORECASTING THE AMOUNT OF
SHEAR AFFECTING IVO...WHICH MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST A LITTLE
PROBLEMATIC AS NONE OF THEM ARE FORECASTING SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THE GFDL AND HWRF MAINTAIN IVO AS A
TROPICAL STORM UNTIL IT REACHES BAJA...WHILE SHIPS WEAKENS IT TO A
DEPRESSION IN 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT
MAKE A COMEBACK TODAY IVO COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH IVO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 20.9N 112.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.6N 112.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 22.3N 112.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 22.8N 111.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 23.3N 110.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 24.0N 110.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/0600Z 24.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

134
WTPZ42 KNHC 221434
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IVO CONSISTS OF ONLY A BURST OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...RESULTANT FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WHILE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 65
KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THE DATA T-NUMBERS
ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD
AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 025/5. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS
FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES IVO SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND TRACK A WEAKENING SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDN STALL THE
CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANTS...SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE.

WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL AS THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS. HOWEVER
IF THE CURRENT BURST OF CONVECTION WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND
IVO COULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER.

ALTHOUGH IVO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.3N 112.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.9N 112.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 22.4N 111.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 23.0N 111.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 23.5N 110.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 24.2N 109.8W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 26/1200Z 25.0N 109.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneRobert]

The NRL site says it's at to 60 knots. I guess a cat1-strength landfall is possible.

[HURAKAN]

The NRL site says it's at to 60 knots. I guess a cat1-strength landfall is possible.

NRL says 50 knts: 12EIVO.50kts-997mb-211N-1128W

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=geo

[HURAKAN]

309
WTPZ32 KNHC 222028
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN
LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES
...295 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

IVO IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...21.8 N...112.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[HURAKAN]

892
WHXX01 KMIA 230101
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0101 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO (EP122007) 20070923 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 0000 070923 1200 070924 0000 070924 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 112.0W 22.8N 111.7W 23.7N 111.0W 24.4N 110.4W
BAMD 21.9N 112.0W 23.2N 111.3W 24.4N 109.8W 25.2N 108.1W
BAMM 21.9N 112.0W 23.2N 111.4W 24.4N 110.2W 25.3N 109.0W
LBAR 21.9N 112.0W 23.2N 111.5W 24.1N 110.3W 25.7N 109.1W
SHIP 45KTS 40KTS 36KTS 31KTS
DSHP 45KTS 40KTS 36KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 0000 070926 0000 070927 0000 070928 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.9N 109.9W 26.0N 110.3W 27.6N 110.5W 28.7N 110.4W
BAMD 25.7N 106.8W 26.0N 105.1W 26.0N 103.4W 25.3N 102.9W
BAMM 26.2N 108.1W 27.7N 106.8W 28.5N 104.6W 27.5N 103.2W
LBAR 27.4N 107.7W 32.5N 104.2W 38.0N 97.1W 38.8N 84.7W
SHIP 29KTS 30KTS 34KTS 36KTS
DSHP 31KTS 33KTS 37KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.9N LONCUR = 112.0W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 21.2N LONM12 = 112.8W DIRM12 = 27DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 20.2N LONM24 = 113.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 110NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

354
WTPZ42 KNHC 230234
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND STABLE AIR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON IVO.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE STORM IS WEAKENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME DETACHED AND IS LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION IS RATHER
WEAK AND REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND THE INITIAL WINDS
ARE LOWERED TO 40 KT.

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IVO HAS TURNED TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING 045/5. THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. GENERALLY THE MODELS THAT
SHOW A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM...SUCH AS THE UKMET/NOGAPS/
GFDL/HWRF MODELS...ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THOSE MODELS ARE WEIGHED LESS IN THE FORECAST THAN THE GFDN/GFS/
ECMWF MODELS...WHICH SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING MORE TO THE
EAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD FAVORING THE WEAKER
SOLUTION.

IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER MODEL SCENARIOS OF A FAST DISSIPATION
MAY BE CORRECT GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF IVO. HOWEVER... THE
GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL
LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS IVO AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM
IMPACTING BAJA CALIFORNIA. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...IF NOT SOONER. GIVEN THE FRAGILE INITIAL STATE OF THE
SYSTEM...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISING TO SEE THE STORM WEAKEN FASTER
THAN FORECAST AND...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUED...THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH COULD BE DISCONTINUED OVERNIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 22.1N 111.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 22.6N 111.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 23.1N 110.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 23.7N 110.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 24.0N 109.7W 25 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 24.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

575
WTPZ32 KNHC 230234
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

...IVO BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD TO CABO
SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
IVO WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IVO REACHES BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...22.1 N...111.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[CrazyC83]

This sure is weakening fast - it may degenerate before landfall?

[Cyclenall]

It's hard to believe that "thing" is a tropical cyclone. Looks like some clouds .

[HURAKAN]

poof!!!

[HURAKAN]

630
WTPZ32 KNHC 230844
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007

...IVO WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA DISCONTINUED...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER OR VERY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND
IVO COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...22.3 N...111.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

WTPZ42 KNHC 231438
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IVO CONSISTS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
AN 0850 UTC MICROWAVE PASS FROM AMSR-E AS WELL AS THE FIRST COUPLE
OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. WITH SUCH A POORLY-
DEFINED MINIMALLY-CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND DATA T-NUMBERS FROM
SAB AND TAFB RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT.

THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...OR 060/4. EVEN THOUGH SOME
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TAKE IVO TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...THE
INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS WERE DEPICTING IVO AS A STRONGER
CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE MORE REALISTICALLY AND DRIFT IVO
ON A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
IVO MOVING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. IT REMAINS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE PENINSULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 22.1N 111.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 22.6N 110.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 24/1200Z 23.2N 109.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 25/0000Z 23.8N 109.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/1200Z 24.5N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[cycloneye]

396
WTPZ42 KNHC 232032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IVO AS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH ONLY A SMALL FRAGMENT OF CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT
60 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER
MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ISSUED ON IVO. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD...REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN A DAY OR
TWO. SOME RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND EARLY MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 22.0N 110.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 22.2N 110.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 24/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 25/0600Z 22.9N 108.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

The last advisory for IVO.

[HURAKAN]

Yes! This is Ivo!!

[Chacor]

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC MON SEP 24 2007
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON SEP 24
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE SEP 25
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED SEP 26

.WARNINGS.
.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.LOW...REMNANT OF IVO...22N110W 1008 MB MOVING E 5 KT. WITHIN
180 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS NW WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE
N OF 22N E OF 117W NW WINDS 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATING NEAR 22N109W 1010 MB. N OF 23N
E OF 117W NW WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.