EPAC: Tropical Depression Ivo=Last Advisory

[CrazyC83]

Almost a hurricane now. Baja looks like it might get its second hit of the year...

Looks very possible; Hurricane Ivo within 6 hours looks quite likely.

[cycloneye]

19/1800 UTC 15.0N 111.6W T4.0/4.0 IVO -- East Pacific Ocean


Can we say Hurricane IVO?

[CrazyC83]

19/1800 UTC 15.0N 111.6W T4.0/4.0 IVO -- East Pacific Ocean


Can we say Hurricane IVO?

Probably in 2 hours we will have Hurricane Ivo with 65-70 kt winds.

[HURAKAN]

19/1800 UTC 15.0N 111.6W T4.0/4.0 IVO -- East Pacific Ocean


Can we say Hurricane IVO?

(Deep Voice) "Our standards indicate that until the NHC does not confirm it's a hurricane, it will be illegitimate to call it a hurricane."

[HURAKAN]

653
WHXX01 KMIA 191857
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1857 UTC WED SEP 19 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO (EP122007) 20070919 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070919 1800 070920 0600 070920 1800 070921 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 111.6W 16.1N 113.2W 16.9N 114.5W 18.1N 115.6W
BAMD 15.2N 111.6W 15.9N 113.0W 16.6N 114.0W 17.5N 114.8W
BAMM 15.2N 111.6W 16.2N 113.0W 17.2N 114.1W 18.4N 114.7W
LBAR 15.2N 111.6W 16.1N 113.0W 17.1N 114.3W 18.4N 115.6W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 74KTS 75KTS
DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 74KTS 75KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070921 1800 070922 1800 070923 1800 070924 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.8N 116.0W 22.7N 115.5W 24.7N 114.2W 26.8N 112.8W
BAMD 18.7N 115.2W 21.0N 115.7W 24.6N 113.7W 29.1N 106.4W
BAMM 19.8N 115.0W 22.7N 115.2W 25.9N 113.9W 29.4N 110.9W
LBAR 19.5N 116.1W 23.0N 115.8W 26.6N 113.0W 32.2N 108.5W
SHIP 73KTS 61KTS 51KTS 46KTS
DSHP 73KTS 61KTS 51KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 111.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 109.7W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 107.9W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Eye completes Ivo!!!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

IVO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN..WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
AROUND THE CENTER AND THE POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF EYE FORMATION IN
BOTH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND IF IVO IS NOT YET A HURRICANE IT SHOULD
BECOME ONE SHORTLY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST AND FAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE STORM HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/9. IVO REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA WILL DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BREAK THE
RIDGE NORTH OF IVO...ALLOWING THE STORM TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THE LOW WILL
NOT COME FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD...
SO THE MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO RE-BUILD
EAST OF IVO IN 96-120 HR...AND THEY RESPOND TO THIS BY SHOWING A
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
THE CCON CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF MODEL DOES
NOT FORECAST IVO TO RECURVE...AS IT TRAPS THE STORM SOUTH OF THE
RE-BUILDING RIDGE.

IVO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IVO
WILL ENCOUNTER. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR...
WHILE THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS ON THE RIGHT
TRACK...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE TWO ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
REMAIN. FIRST...THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS IVO OVER WARMER WATER BY
120 HR...AND IF THE SHEAR IS LIGHT IVO COULD BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST AT THAT TIME. SECOND...IF IVO TRACKS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD LIKELY ENCOUNTER BOTH STRONGER SHEAR AND
COLDER WATER...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.4N 111.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.0N 113.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 16.8N 113.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 17.9N 114.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 18.9N 113.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 112.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 111.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 23.0N 109.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

Surprised that they held it as a TS. Should be a hurricane soon if it isn't one now.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC THU SEP 20 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO (EP122007) 20070920 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070920 0000 070920 1200 070921 0000 070921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 112.1W 16.9N 113.7W 17.9N 115.0W 19.4N 115.8W
BAMD 15.8N 112.1W 16.6N 113.3W 17.4N 114.2W 18.6N 114.8W
BAMM 15.8N 112.1W 16.8N 113.5W 17.9N 114.5W 19.2N 115.2W
LBAR 15.8N 112.1W 16.7N 113.3W 18.0N 114.5W 19.2N 115.3W
SHIP 65KTS 71KTS 73KTS 71KTS
DSHP 65KTS 71KTS 73KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070922 0000 070923 0000 070924 0000 070925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.4N 116.1W 25.3N 114.9W 28.1N 112.6W 30.4N 110.3W
BAMD 20.3N 115.0W 24.0N 115.0W 29.2N 110.2W 34.4N 100.3W
BAMM 20.9N 115.6W 24.9N 115.5W 28.9N 112.5W 32.3N 106.8W
LBAR 20.9N 115.4W 25.5N 114.4W 31.6N 109.9W 38.0N 100.5W
SHIP 67KTS 57KTS 46KTS 41KTS
DSHP 67KTS 57KTS 46KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 112.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 110.7W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 108.8W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM

Hurricane IVO at 8 PM PDT advisory.

[CrazyC83]

It might be stronger than 65 kt in two hours...

[CrazyC83]

20/0000 UTC 15.5N 112.1W T4.0/4.0 IVO -- East Pacific Ocean

[RL3AO]

NRL: 12EIVO.65kts-987mb-158N-1121W

[RL3AO]

Officially Hurricane Ivo.

[cycloneye]

066
WTPZ42 KNHC 200231
TCDEP2
HURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO
4.0 AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASSAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED RING OF
CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL. ON THIS BASIS...IVO HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A 65 KNOT HURRICANE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IVO TO
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODELS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR LOSE THE CYCLONE BEYOND DAY 3. ONLY THE
GFDL KEEPS IVO AS A HURRICANE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE GFDL
RUNS.

IVO APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL BE ERODED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...RESULTING IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. IVO
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD VERY SLOWLY AND THEN TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE LIGHT FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TRACK FORECAST BASICALLY FOLLOW THE
SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
FORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR TO THE WEST.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 16.1N 112.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 18.0N 113.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.0N 113.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 20.0N 113.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 21.5N 112.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Epsilon_Fan]

Give it an eye and maybe the a-word...

[Chacor]

284
WTPZ42 KNHC 200834
TCDEP2
HURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IVO HAS MAINTAINED ITS
DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW....AND RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES FROM BOTH SSM/I AND AMSU-B INDICATE AN EYE FEATURE. AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0136 UTC HAD MAXIMUM WIND VECTORS OF AT
LEAST 55 KT. THESE VECTORS WERE LIKELY ATTENUATED BY HEAVY
RAIN...SO THE ACTUAL MAXIMUM WINDS WERE PROBABLY CLOSER TO 65 KT.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 4.0 OR 65
KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE 34- AND 50-KT
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS.

IVO IS MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 330/6. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS
SLOWED AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA-NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER. THIS STEERING FEATURE SHOULD CREATE A MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE LATER PERIODS.
SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT
IVO WILL WEAKEN AND TAKE A MORE NORTHWARD OR EVEN NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSER TO THE GFDL SCENARIO OF A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MORE
RESPONSIVE TO THE TROUGH. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...WITH WARM WATERS AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. BOTH OF
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE LATER
PERIODS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF IVO TRACKS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST...STRONGER SHEAR COULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE...ICON...BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE GFDL.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS BECAUSE THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE FORECAST PERIODS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 16.5N 112.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 17.3N 113.0W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 18.3N 113.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 19.3N 113.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 20.3N 112.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 111.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 109.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

[Chacor]

Not annular, but it does have a very pretty eye.

[HURAKAN]

510
WHXX01 KMIA 201252
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1252 UTC THU SEP 20 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO (EP122007) 20070920 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070920 1200 070921 0000 070921 1200 070922 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 112.7W 17.9N 113.7W 19.1N 114.5W 20.7N 114.9W
BAMD 16.8N 112.7W 17.8N 113.4W 19.0N 113.7W 20.6N 113.5W
BAMM 16.8N 112.7W 18.1N 113.2W 19.5N 113.2W 21.1N 113.1W
LBAR 16.8N 112.7W 17.8N 113.3W 19.4N 113.7W 21.1N 113.9W
SHIP 65KTS 66KTS 67KTS 65KTS
DSHP 65KTS 66KTS 67KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070922 1200 070923 1200 070924 1200 070925 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.4N 114.9W 25.1N 114.6W 27.7N 113.5W 30.5N 113.5W
BAMD 22.2N 113.4W 25.7N 112.0W 30.3N 106.6W 32.4N 99.0W
BAMM 22.6N 113.1W 25.7N 112.3W 29.4N 109.4W 32.3N 106.5W
LBAR 23.5N 114.0W 28.9N 111.1W 36.7N 105.0W 37.7N 93.6W
SHIP 60KTS 51KTS 42KTS 43KTS
DSHP 60KTS 51KTS 37KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.8N LONCUR = 112.7W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 112.1W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 110.7W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 65NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

20/1200 UTC 16.9N 112.6W T4.5/4.5 IVO

[Chacor]

T4.5/4.5 from TAFB too so I will not be surprised to see 75 kt.