EPAC: Tropical Depression Ivo=Last Advisory

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 161834
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC SUN SEP 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972007) 20070916 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070916 1800 070917 0600 070917 1800 070918 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 98.8W 12.0N 101.3W 12.5N 104.0W 13.3N 106.5W
BAMD 11.4N 98.8W 11.7N 101.2W 12.1N 103.6W 12.5N 105.9W
BAMM 11.4N 98.8W 11.9N 101.2W 12.4N 103.7W 13.1N 106.3W
LBAR 11.4N 98.8W 11.8N 101.1W 12.8N 103.6W 13.9N 106.5W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070918 1800 070919 1800 070920 1800 070921 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 108.9W 16.6N 113.2W 19.2N 116.5W 23.8N 118.2W
BAMD 13.2N 108.1W 14.6N 111.5W 16.1N 113.2W 17.8N 113.0W
BAMM 14.0N 108.9W 16.0N 113.3W 18.4N 116.2W 22.5N 116.8W
LBAR 15.1N 108.9W 16.8N 112.7W 18.4N 114.5W 20.4N 114.1W
SHIP 49KTS 56KTS 54KTS 48KTS
DSHP 49KTS 56KTS 54KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.4N LONCUR = 98.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 96.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 94.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 162230
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...THEY COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[RL3AO]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 16 2007

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 8N MOVING W 5-10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW
IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. THE LOW IS EXHIBITING A
WELL-DEFINED WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MID LEVEL ROTATION ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N96.5W 13N99W 12N101W. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS
IT TRACKS IN A WNW DIRECTION.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 170051
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC MON SEP 17 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972007) 20070917 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070917 0000 070917 1200 070918 0000 070918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 99.8W 12.2N 102.4W 12.8N 105.2W 13.6N 107.7W
BAMD 11.6N 99.8W 12.0N 102.1W 12.4N 104.3W 12.9N 106.4W
BAMM 11.6N 99.8W 12.2N 102.2W 12.9N 104.7W 13.6N 107.2W
LBAR 11.6N 99.8W 12.1N 102.2W 13.1N 104.7W 14.2N 107.3W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070919 0000 070920 0000 070921 0000 070922 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 110.4W 17.7N 114.9W 20.9N 117.6W 27.1N 117.1W
BAMD 13.6N 108.3W 15.1N 111.2W 16.5N 112.3W 17.5N 111.9W
BAMM 14.7N 109.6W 16.9N 113.7W 19.8N 115.7W 24.2N 115.5W
LBAR 15.2N 109.5W 17.1N 112.6W 18.8N 113.5W 20.5N 113.1W
SHIP 54KTS 57KTS 52KTS 47KTS
DSHP 54KTS 57KTS 52KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 99.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 97.8W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 95.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[HURAKAN]

An increase in convection and you get "Ivo."

[Chacor]

759
ABPZ20 KNHC 171004
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[Chacor]

17/2330 UTC 12.4N 105.5W T1.5/1.5 97E -- East Pacific Ocean

[RL3AO]

WTPN21 PHNC 180330
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 104.4W TO 15.4N 112.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 180230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.6N 105.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6N 105.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN
18/0038Z SSMI DEPICTS WEAK, DEVELOPING BANDING. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. RECENT UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190330Z.//
NNNN

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Cyclenall]

It's looking good for TC formation. This has been the best looking Invest in the Epac in a long time this season.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Ivo doesn't seem too far off now...

[WindRunner]

NRL listing 12E.NONAME.

[Chacor]

NRL listing 12E.NONAME.

That cannot be right. TPC didn't upgrade it at 8 am PDT, and the next ATCF update isn't due for another hour or so yet.

[Chacor]

Hmm, ATCF:

invest_RENUMBER_ep972007_ep122007.ren

[cycloneye]

Yes NONAME.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[WindRunner]

NRL is setup to pull straight from ATCF, so no surprsies ATCF got updated. Don't know why it was off-hour like that, but it definately seems warranted. However I'd keep an eye on it in case the RENUMBER command gets deleted . . . though I don't think it will.