EPAC: Tropical Depression Ivo=Last Advisory

[AnnularCane]

How do you pronounce Ivo anyway?

He is beautiful!

[RL3AO]

I think its "eye-voh"

[HurricaneRobert]

I think this will be a hurricane. It just looks too well-organized.

[CrazyC83]

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190225
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
0300 UTC WED SEP 19 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 109.3W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 109.3W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.2N 111.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 109.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190226
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5 AND
3.0 RESPECTIVELY ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THESE DATA..THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. IVO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. THEREAFTER...STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CYCLONE AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
MEXICO WESTWARD. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN IN
ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IVO REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. BY THEN...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW NORTH
AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...IVO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND 3
DAYS.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THE FORECAST
BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. SOME MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE
CYCLONE...OTHERS TURN IVO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS MOVE IT
TOWARD THE WEST. HOWEVER..THEY ALL AGREE IN FORECASTING WEAKENING
AFTER 3 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.5N 109.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 15.2N 111.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 17.0N 114.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 18.0N 114.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 114.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W 40 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Cyclenall]

It looks like a hurricane structure system without deep enough convection.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like a hurricane structure system without deep enough convection.

I think so too, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see Hurricane Ivo within 24 hours...

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Tighting up. Expect some rapid intensification.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Quickscat shows a broad LLC with some 30 knot wind barbs on the northern side.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _ep_0.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 SEP 2007 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 14:38:14 N Lon : 109:33:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1007.4mb/ 32.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.3 2.4 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -60.6C Cloud Region Temp : -54.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in WHITE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

Quickscat shows a broad LLC with some 30 knot wind barbs on the northern side.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _ep_0.html

That's from 13:32 UTC yesterday (pass time at the bottom of the image), so it's old.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

IVO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT EXHIBITS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO
AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING INNER CORE
BUT NO EYE...YET. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
REMAIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
TWO. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL MODEL
PREDICTION. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AN INCREASE
IN WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS OUTPUT IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD. IF IVO MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED IT
WOULD ENCOUNTER STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...AND WOULD MOST
LIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.

THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SLOWING IN THE ESTIMATED MOTION...WHICH IS
NOW ABOUT 300/9. DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...IVO IS FORECAST TO
MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A
STRONG MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS TURN IVO NORTHEASTWARD OR...IN THE CASE OF THE GFDL
MODEL... EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
CLOSE TO THE GUNA DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. AS NOTED
EARLIER...THE TRACK FORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE CREDIBLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AT THAT TIME RANGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 14.7N 110.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 15.4N 111.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 16.4N 112.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 17.3N 113.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 21.0N 112.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 21.5N 112.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[cycloneye]

19/1200 UTC 14.9N 110.3W T3.5/3.5 IVO -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Ivo wants to become "Ivo the Great!!!"

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
800 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT IVO HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70C TO -80C. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT HAS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. IVO REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA WILL DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BREAK THE
RIDGE NORTH OF IVO...ALLOWING THE STORM TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL NOT
COME FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD...SO
THE MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...
THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT 96 AND 120 HR IN A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFDL...HWRF...UKMET...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERNS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE
MOTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW IVO INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST WHICH PREVENTS THE STORM FROM RECURVING IN
THOSE MODELS.

IVO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IVO WILL
ENCOUNTER. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST 20-25 KT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHILE THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LESS
SHEAR. FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SHIPS AND CALL
FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HR. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO
ALTERNATIVES. FIRST...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGS IVO OVER
WARMER WATER BY 120 HR...AND IF THE GFS IS WRONG ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF SHEAR IVO COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
SECOND...IF IVO TRACKS NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD
LIKELY ENCOUNTER BOTH STRONGER SHEAR AND COLDER WATER...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 15.3N 111.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 15.9N 112.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 16.8N 113.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 17.7N 113.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 20.5N 113.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 21.5N 111.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

If you live in the southern portion of Baja California and in Sinaloa, pay close attention to Ivo's future path.

Si vives en Baja California Sur o Sinaloa, deben mantenerte muy atento al desarrollo futuro de Ivo.

[Chacor]

Almost a hurricane now. Baja looks like it might get its second hit of the year...