EPAC: Tropical Depression Ivo=Last Advisory

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Re: EPAC: Invest 97E

#21 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:45 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1617 UTC TUE SEP 18 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP122007) 20070918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070918 1200 070919 0000 070919 1200 070920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 106.9W 14.4N 109.3W 15.4N 111.5W 16.6N 113.7W
BAMD 13.2N 106.9W 14.0N 109.1W 14.7N 111.0W 15.7N 112.6W
BAMM 13.2N 106.9W 14.2N 109.3W 15.2N 111.5W 16.3N 113.4W
LBAR 13.2N 106.9W 14.0N 108.7W 14.9N 110.7W 15.9N 112.6W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070920 1200 070921 1200 070922 1200 070923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 115.4W 21.3N 117.8W 25.4N 116.3W 28.2N 113.5W
BAMD 16.6N 113.7W 18.8N 114.3W 20.4N 112.6W 20.4N 110.8W
BAMM 17.5N 114.9W 20.7N 116.2W 24.6N 114.5W 28.4N 111.1W
LBAR 16.8N 114.0W 19.6N 115.3W 21.7N 113.6W 23.3N 111.4W
SHIP 45KTS 43KTS 34KTS 36KTS
DSHP 45KTS 43KTS 34KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 106.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 105.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 102.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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#22 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:52 am

WTPZ22 KNHC 181647
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
1700 UTC TUE SEP 18 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.9W AT 18/1700Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.9W AT 18/1700Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.7N 111.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 112.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 21.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#23 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:55 am

TWD:

UPDATED TO INCLUDE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 107.9W AT
18/1700 UTC MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE MORNING HOURS WHICH WAS THE
REASON FOR ISSUING THE SPECIAL ADVISORY. THE CLOUD STRUCTURE IS
NOW MUCH MORE CIRCULAR AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AND GAINED CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS
IN A BAND WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE. STRENGHTENING IS FORECAST.
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#24 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:58 am

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#25 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:09 pm

056
WTPZ42 KNHC 181708
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
1000 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 1330Z SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT.

THE CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...WITH QUIKSCAT SUGGESTING
A POSITION SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS YIELDS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN MOTION OF
290/11. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A
LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LOW DOES NOT MOVE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ACCELERATION AFTER RECURVATURE...WITH THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK
CALLS FOR RECURVATURE AND DECELERATION DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION THAN CALLED FOR BY THE
GFDL AND HWRF.

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TO
CONTINUE FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE
SHEAR. COMBINED WITH THE DEPRESSION MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AT
ABOUT 72 HR...THIS EVOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
THROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE GFDL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE WEAKENING...SO THERE IS A CHANCE
IT COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN FORECAST BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1700Z 13.4N 107.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 13.9N 109.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 14.7N 111.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 112.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.4N 114.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 21.0N 113.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#26 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:29 pm

This might be a land threat...although they seem to be holding back on the intensity...
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#27 Postby NetZeroZeus » Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:36 pm

This looks like a Kenna 2002 type track, although I hope it is a heck of a lot weaker like the NHC says it will be, I don't need that again... :eek:

What causes recurvature in EPAC storms? Troughs?
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Re:

#28 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:38 pm

NetZeroZeus wrote:What causes recurvature in EPAC storms? Troughs?


We got a winner!!!
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#29 Postby Chacor » Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:41 pm

950
WTPZ42 KNHC 182040
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E IS
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A BAND OF CURVED CONVECTION FORMING
NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE ESTIMATES WERE
MADE...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THIS INTENSITY IS A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE. WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING EVEN IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
THE LOW DOES NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ACCELERATION AFTER
RECURVATURE...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING LITTLE MOTION AND THE HWRF
MODEL SHOWING A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK AGAIN
CALLS FOR RECURVATURE AND DECELERATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR AND THEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT LIGHT SHEAR TO CONTINUE
FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE SHEAR.
THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE AND MOTION OVER COOLER WATER AT ABOUT 72 HR...
SUGGESTS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.
NONE OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT IN CALLING
FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 13.8N 108.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 14.5N 110.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 15.4N 112.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 16.2N 113.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 17.1N 114.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#30 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:51 pm

I think it is a tropical storm right now...should be Ivo soon...
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:53 pm

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Should be Ivo in the next advisory if not now.
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#32 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:10 pm

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#33 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:45 pm

My guess at strength is 45 knots right now. 30 knots? The organization is far too impressive to warrant something like that. Ivo wants to be named!
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:56 pm

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#35 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 7:19 pm

I'd say 40-45 knots myself right now. This is way too good for a tropical depression.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 12 -E

#36 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 18, 2007 7:49 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 190046
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC WED SEP 19 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO (EP122007) 20070919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070919 0000 070919 1200 070920 0000 070920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 108.8W 15.1N 110.7W 15.9N 112.6W 16.8N 114.2W
BAMD 14.2N 108.8W 14.9N 110.5W 15.7N 111.9W 16.6N 112.8W
BAMM 14.2N 108.8W 15.1N 110.7W 15.9N 112.3W 16.8N 113.5W
LBAR 14.2N 108.8W 15.0N 110.6W 16.0N 112.4W 17.1N 114.1W
SHIP 35KTS 46KTS 56KTS 64KTS
DSHP 35KTS 46KTS 56KTS 64KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070921 0000 070922 0000 070923 0000 070924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 115.6W 21.4N 116.9W 23.9N 115.3W 25.9N 113.6W
BAMD 17.5N 113.4W 19.2N 112.9W 18.2N 112.1W 17.4N 112.4W
BAMM 18.2N 114.3W 20.9N 114.2W 22.1N 113.4W 23.9N 112.2W
LBAR 18.2N 115.1W 21.1N 115.7W 23.1N 113.9W 23.8N 110.7W
SHIP 68KTS 60KTS 50KTS 42KTS
DSHP 68KTS 60KTS 50KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 108.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 107.1W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 105.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Hello Ivo!
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#37 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:22 pm

SHIPS now makes this Hurricane Ivo down the road, and I see no reason why he won't be a hurricane.
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#38 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:25 pm

The NHC said in the last discussion it would run into higher shear, dryer air, and cooler waters in about 72 hours.
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#39 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:31 pm

19/0000 UTC 14.1N 108.7W T3.0/3.0 12E -- East Pacific Ocean

Ivo is intensifying.

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#40 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:51 pm

NRL and CIMSS have Ivo
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