Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards

[Cryomaniac]

Is this correct: if this system fails to redevelop, gets absorbed by the cut-off low that 93L is detatching from, and that entity becomes a tropical storm, it gets a new name (presumably Karen at this point)? Or is that combined low still Ingrid?

I think your imagination is running fast, but if this turns out to be the case, then it will be Karen if Jerry forms in the GOM.

Why? I thought it would keep Ingrind.

I think it would be Jerry or Karen, because it wouldn't be exactly the same feature if it merged with the cut-off low.

[CrazyC83]

Is this correct: if this system fails to redevelop, gets absorbed by the cut-off low that 93L is detatching from, and that entity becomes a tropical storm, it gets a new name (presumably Karen at this point)? Or is that combined low still Ingrid?

I think your imagination is running fast, but if this turns out to be the case, then it will be Karen if Jerry forms in the GOM.

Why? I thought it would keep Ingrind.

If it stays distinct, it will keep Ingrid. I am just wondering what would happen if the cutoff low detatching from 93L absorbed this first...

[Coredesat]

It will not keep Ingrid in any situation as the LLC was dissipating as the NHC issued its last advisory. If the LLC had survived, then it could get its name back.

[RL3AO]

If its in the same basin, I think only its remnants have to survive.

[Air Force Met]

It will not keep Ingrid in any situation as the LLC was dissipating as the NHC issued its last advisory. If the LLC had survived, then it could get its name back.

That is incorrect. We discussed this several days ago. The LLC surviving has nothing to do with keeping the designation. I refer you to Ivan and Mitch...both had LLC's that opened up but were later closed again and retained their name. I also refer you to TS Chantal in 2001...which was a TD...opened into a wave after recon could no longer close it off...and then closed back off again and became Chantal. It is, however, looked at as the same system.

What determines a new name is now whether or not the LLC dissipates...but whether or not the sfc feature dissipates. If a sfc feature can be traced and is involved in the formation...the name will be retained. If it cannot...a new name will be given (which was why TD 10 became TD12 and Katrina).

[msbee]

Well, whatever you call it, is is hanging over us right now and giving us a lot of rain.
The clouds started rolling in from the North in the middle of the afternoon and by 5 PM, the heavens opened up..... 1.5 inches of rain in less than an hour.
It is lightly raining now and continuing to thunder and lightning.

[brunota2003]

The Sat image page on the NHC site has it labeled "Ingrid" again.

[Sanibel]

That convection could have been more due to the trough being sheared than being generated by Ingrid. I'm not sure this is a re-fire.

[HURAKAN]

854
ABNT20 KNHC 200223
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE STILL FALLING SHARPLY AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM...AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALL
INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[gatorcane]

Ingrid folks is dead. The upper-level environment is still too much for her and not letting up.
If it were better today she might have had a shot, but again another Upper-Level low wipes another one out.

It's one upper-level low after the other wiping anything out that tries to go west of 60W and north of 15N over the Atlantic. If the upper-lows aren't there then systems have recurved before 60W anyway. It's been since 2005 that anything significant has formed over the Atlantic West of 60W and looks like that trend may continue through this year again.

[Lifesgud2]

Ingrid folks is dead. The upper-level environment is still too much for her and not letting up.
If it were better today she might have had a shot, but again another Upper-Level low wipes another one out.

It's one upper-level low after the other wiping anything out that tries to go west of 60W and north of 15N over the Atlantic. If the upper-lows aren't there then systems have recurved before 60W anyway. It's been since 2005 that anything significant has formed over the Atlantic West of 60W and looks like that trend may continue through this year again.

And the truth shall set you free. Its about time you came to your senses.

[Category 5]

Ingrid folks is dead. The upper-level environment is still too much for her and not letting up.
If it were better today she might have had a shot, but again another Upper-Level low wipes another one out.

It's one upper-level low after the other wiping anything out that tries to go west of 60W and north of 15N over the Atlantic. If the upper-lows aren't there then systems have recurved before 60W anyway. It's been since 2005 that anything significant has formed over the Atlantic West of 60W and looks like that trend may continue through this year again.

I am opening up this thread because I do think Ingrid can regenerate in about 3 days or so and may not be a fish. Anybody that is behind me post here (or who thinks I am crazy so be it).

there is still alot of shear ahead of her for the next 24 hours or so then it should drop off as the ridge builds in to the north....

if she did come back at this point it would be truly amazing.

Ingrid may just be the one we should be watching. She still has a nice spin and the convection last night that the shear blew off looked the most impressive since Saturday......

Tough choice eh?

[fci]

Well, he finally realized "when" to say "when".

At least he was man enough to come out on to the board and admit it rather than just slink away like many do and simply ignore that they were chasing a shadow.

[Zardoz]

RIP Ingrid

If ever a system earned the description "fighter", it was her.

Man, she put up a battle...

[Honeyko]

....gets absorbed by the cut-off low that 93L is detaching from....

93L isn't detaching from the cut-off low; 93L *is* the cut-off low.

Ingrid folks is dead. The upper-level environment is still too much for her and not letting up

Cardinal Rule of September: Anything with more organization than an open wave isn't "dead". Iris, which hit Belize a couple years back, was a completely taffy-pulled wave at one point in the eastern Caribbean after having been a TS, and still manage to claw its way back to a cat-4. Some of us think Katrina formed from the vestigial remnants of an un-listed near-TD that was "invested" for a length of time near the Virgin Islands before being dropped as it weakened moving WNW toward the Bahamas.

Swirls like Ingrid's are capable of persisting for astonishingly long periods of time. This particular one could fiddle and fart around east of the Bahamas for another week with intermittent bursts of convection. The "suddenly explodes and wipes out South Carolina" scenario is rather, uh, fetching; but re-development into at least TS during an eventual recurve up past Bermuda is hardly unlikely.

[Nimbus]

Pretty red blob up near 23N thats just a little NE of the LLC wonder if it will persist?

[Three Blind Mice]

Guess who's back????

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Ingrid blobs looks good today, looks like that hostile shear has lessoned. Not confident she will redevelop, but at least the shear has subsided a little.

[Coredesat]

I've pretty much been proven wrong already on this, but here is the official stance of the NHC, as reported to me by Dennis Feltgen (PA officer):

Thank you for your e-mail.
If the remnants a named system were to regenerate, it would retain its
original name.

There are records of some past storms that have weakened to a depression
and emerged in the eastern Pacific, where strengthening has re-occurred.
This phenomenon occurs primarily at the lower latitudes. The storm would
be given a name from the Eastern Pacific list. An excellent example is
Atlantic hurricane Irene in 1971, which crossed Nicaragua and became
Hurricane Olivia.

So this should put the matter to bed.

[Sanibel]

A weak sheared spiral continues to flare a mild convection tag. Should be wiped out by synoptics and 93L soon.