Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Sorry that I was not clearer on it being my opinion. I usually try to be careful about it. There is nothing that I see, other than T numbers being initiated again, that says that Ingrid has revived itself. The official ATCF database has not listed it since yesterday but may perhaps again at 2PM EDT. NOAA calls things invests sometimes (Invest, without a number) before they actually are, so NOAA makes an independent determination sometimes. (though it is not official yet because it does not publicly appear in the ATCF database)

The NHC has determined the Ingrid is not invest worthy as of 8AM EDT. (since there was no position update in the ATCF database) That may change as of 2PM EDT, the next time a position update would come in.

[Chacor]

Sorry that I was not clearer on it being my opinion. I usually try to be careful about it. There is nothing that I see, other than T numbers being initiated again, that says that Ingrid has revived itself. The official ATCF database has not listed it since yesterday but may perhaps again at 2PM EDT. NOAA calls things invests sometimes (Invest, without a number) before they actually are, so NOAA makes an independent determination sometimes. (though it is not official yet because it does not publicly appear in the ATCF database)

The NHC has determined the Ingrid is not invest worthy as of 8AM EDT. (since there was no position update in the ATCF database) That may change as of 2PM EDT, the next time a position update would come in.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 007.invest has been updated every six hours...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

But the last time was at "2007091812" and not "2007091912."

[gatorcane]

Latest:

Ingrid is *slowly* trying to get better organized. I say that because the low-level spin seems to be ever so slowly getting more-defined The LLC looks to be at:

22N 64W moving WNW at about 6mph.

but notice the convection is still way off to the East and still getting sheared.

[storms in NC]

Latest:

Ingrid is *slowly* trying to get better organized. I say that because the low-level spin seems to be ever so slowly getting more-defined The LLC looks to be at:

22N 64W moving WNW at about 6mph.

but notice the convection is still way off to the East and still getting sheared.

You know I said last week I would check back on here Wed on Ingrid. But I lied I peeked a few times. LOL

But it will be very interesting to say .

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
~~~~~~~~~~
The 12z CMC takes Ingrid right toward South Florida.

[gatorcane]

There is a low but upper-level winds are still not favorable according to the NHC. I wouldn't expect any changes to the verbage of the 5:30pm TWO

From the NHC 2:05pm TWO.

THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER IS THE REMNANTS OF INGRID...ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 22N64W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR
24N66W ARE PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 59W-64W.

[BigA]

I dont know how accurate shear maps are, but it really looks like Ex-Ingrid will hit an area of 5-10kt shear tomorrow, the lowest in some 5 days.

[cycloneye]

19/1745 UTC 21.7N 64.4W TOO WEAK INGRID -- Atlantic Ocean


It looks like any comeback has stalled as no T Numbers were given.

[MiamiensisWx]

Currently, the low-level swirl appears to be near 21.8N and 64.8W. It looks like we are seeing a motion just N of due W. It is roughly ~505 miles from the SE Bahamas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I recently sleuthed some climatological data on all depressions or tropical storms (ex-Ingrid is a shallow system) that passed within ~65 nmi of 24.8N and 64.8W in the month of September. The data encompasses the period from 1851-2006 in the best track database (HURDAT). A total of 14 systems passed within 65 nmi of these coordinates at TD or TS intensity. Eight systems eventually intensified to hurricanes. Only three systems hit Florida: there was one TS, one intense hurricane, and a former TS that moved over SW FL as a TD.

1916 - TS (Cape Canaveral)
1929 - Cat. 3 (upper Florida Keys)
1960 Florence - TD (SW Florida)

One storm (1904) made a direct strike on North Carolina as a hurricane, while another system (Helene '58) brushed the state as an intense hurricane. Additionally, one storm (1886) moved W over Cuba and became a hurricane in the S Gulf of Mexico. All other storms (eight in total) were fish systems. 61 percent never struck the United States. I think ex-Ingrid has poor odds of a United States landfall based on the LLC's latitude, motion, progged pattern, and a dosage of climatology. North Carolina would be the most probable location for a strike if ex-Helene redevelops (unlikely) over the next several days. I still believe a fish is the most plausible outcome.

14 storms
8 fish systems
4 United States landfalls
2 United States hurricanes
1 intense United States landfall

[alienstorm]

Finish, no maas! Put a fork in it...

[Cyclone1]

What's the name of that track website, MiamiensisWx? I've had it before but I lost it.

[MiamiensisWx]

Cyclone1,

Here's the link to the interactive HURDAT track database.

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

[Cyclone1]

Cyclone1,

Here's the link to the interactive HURDAT track database.

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Thanks! I've been looking for that site.

[HURAKAN]

Finish, no maas! Put a fork in it...

Irrevocable
Never-ending
Going on
Resistant
Implacable
Durable

PS. Thesaurus consulted!!!

[CrazyC83]

Finish, no maas! Put a fork in it...

Irrevocable
Never-ending
Going on
Resistant
Implacable
Durable

PS. Thesaurus consulted!!!

It could easily be a week or more before we can lose sight of "Blob Ingrid"...

[MiamiensisWx]

Gator wrote:

"Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards makes comeback"





Dinner is served!

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Once again the RGB shows (what I think is) the LLC. Its NW of the convection, getting sheared still, but definitely improved from days ago when she was just a naked swirl. At least she's generating convection. Now lets see what that shear is gonna be in 24 hours.

[Nimbus]

The last convective burst actually came from the LLC that is still rotating near 22N. That indicates to me that there is still some lower surface pressure near the center. I don't like the ridge setup one bit and the ULL that has been providing shear is filling at an alarming rate.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Notice the remnant of the ULL. Just NW of the convection there is a ring.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

the ULL that has been providing shear is filling at an alarming rate.

I never understood where the shear came from that destroyed her. Anyone care to point it out?