Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KWBC 212050
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/2031Z
B. 29 DEG 57 MIN N
86 DEG 18 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1463 M
D. 30 KT
E. 200 DEG 12 NM
F. 215 DEG 24 KT
G. 195 DEG 24 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 18 C/1516 M
J. 19 C/1515 M
K. 19 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 05IIA INVEST OB 24 AL102007
MAX FL WIND 36 KT SE QUAD 1704Z
MAX SFMR WIND 37 KT SE QUAD 1705Z
SLP BY SONDE
CENTER SONDE 17 KTS AT SFC

Surface data still shows tropical storm.

That SFMR report is from earlier this afternoon. Note the time 1705z. Winds seemed to have actually decreased a little since then.

[storms in NC]

Why name TD 10 "Jerry" if it is not a TS? Naming the system will only give insurance companies a way out of paying. They will invoke the "named storm" exclusion rules. So, if you happen to be one of the poor people that suffers some wind damage they will try to wiggle off the hook and not pay up. Anyway, I was thinking Pensacola earlier and that might be a bit too west at the look of thinks. Of course the surface center may not be where the radar center is. But who knows? With the history of this system, spinning up lows by day only to have them dissipate by night who knows it the current low is nothing more that a transient low and another could form elsewhere......MGC

You don't have to have a TS to be able to claim on your ins. Any storm you can do that with. But if you are talking about the Gov you are out of luck even with a TS and sometimes a low cat 1. It happen here in NC. Forgot what Hurricane it was but it was last year or the year before a low cat one came in but didn't go to the $ amount for the Gov. So the people on the beaches got screwed. They could get what they call a SBA Loan.

So is the center going to rebuild to the south? If it does then I would say La and Miss line. Like I had said all week.

[jasons2k]

Steve Lyons said it looks like it will make landfall in 3-4 hours near Destin...then slide along the coast to Pensacola and AL/MS.

It looks to me like it's going to make LF in Destin at any moment.

[jasons2k]

Center in black:

[storms in NC]

looks to me like NHC maybe right. Al to Miss to me from this loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not sure if a weak system will weaken quickly once it moves inland, but if it did, what about the mini-me low over the Central Gulf that seems to be attached by a trough


Mini-Me Visible Loop, Extreme Closeup

Mini-Me Enhanced Color Infrared Loop


(Edited for spelling)

[jasons2k]

[jasons2k]

IMO visible satellite also shows LLC coming in at Destin.

[sphelps8681]

Was just curious if anyone else heard Steve Lyons just say the thing in the Car. will make it's way to the Tx/La border within 72 hrs. If so what kinda of storm will this be? Any takers.

Posted this on another forum put it never would post. Sorry if this is off topic.

[attallaman]

Was just curious if anyone else heard Steve Lyons just say the thing in the Car. will make it's way to the Tx/La border within 72 hrs. If so what kinda of storm will this be? Any takers.

Posted this on another forum put it never would post. Sorry if this is off topic.

I heard Lyons say that as well; he didn't elaborate except to say the system would have to be watched and it would head towards the LA/TX border within a few days. He didn't go so far as to say the system would become another Humberto. Does anyone know what JB has to say about the system in the Caribbean?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't know if this has already been said or not. But this has got to be one of the most overhyped "systems" in the Gulf I have ever seen. It has been talked about for days by every news agency, even national news, and all kind of state of emergencies were activated. I know it could have been worse, they all can, but it wasn't. Most people knew it was not going to be much, if anything at all. Maybe it was a warm up for whats in the carib? Just had to let off a little steam. And by the way I think the models really busted on this also.

[Javlin]

I don't know if this has already been said or not. But this has got to be one of the most overhyped "storms" in the Gulf I have ever seen. It has been talked about for days by every news agency, even national news, and all kind of state of emergencies were activated. I know it could have been worse, they all can, but it wasn't. Most people knew it was not going to be much, if anything at all. Maybe it was a warm up for whats in the carib? Just had to let off a little steam.

Have to agree and I all I wanted was some damn rain.What a bust .

[RL3AO]

I don't know if this has already been said or not. But this has got to be one of the most overhyped "systems" in the Gulf I have ever seen. It has been talked about for days by every news agency, even national news, and all kind of state of emergencies were activated. I know it could have been worse, they all can, but it wasn't. Most people knew it was not going to be much, if anything at all. Maybe it was a warm up for whats in the carib? Just had to let off a little steam. And by the way I think the models really busted on this also.

The media over-hyping something? Shocking.

[eaglegirl]

Was just curious if anyone else heard Steve Lyons just say the thing in the Car. will make it's way to the Tx/La border within 72 hrs. If so what kinda of storm will this be? Any takers.

Posted this on another forum put it never would post. Sorry if this is off topic.

I heard Lyons say that as well; he didn't elaborate except to say the system would have to be watched and it would head towards the LA/TX border within a few days. He didn't go so far as to say the system would become another Humberto. Does anyone know what JB has to say about the system in the Caribbean?

If I remember correctly, his blog last night said he was thinking about it because it appeared to be warm cored.

Although I subscribe to the JB's Pro service, I don't check it often.

I can go look and see what he has said recently.

Edit: I just checked his blog. There is nothing new from last night when he stated he was as courious as could be about it. (I did not watch his Big Dog Video, so I don't know if he mentioned it there. I may watch his videos later.)

[americanrebel]

Looking at the IR2, looks like the center is relocating further south (maybe 40 - 50 miles further away from the coast), is it just me?

I still see the LLC in the middle of gulf is still around, what is going to happen with it?

[jaxfladude]

I don't know if this has already been said or not. But this has got to be one of the most overhyped "systems" in the Gulf I have ever seen. It has been talked about for days by every news agency, even national news, and all kind of state of emergencies were activated. I know it could have been worse, they all can, but it wasn't. Most people knew it was not going to be much, if anything at all. Maybe it was a warm up for whats in the carib? Just had to let off a little steam. And by the way I think the models really busted on this also.

The media over-hyping something? Shocking.

Shame on you all, tell that "over hyped" to those people in Eustis, Florida! and near Waycross Georgia.... !!

[hurricanetrack]

And to think that Joe Bastardi had to cut his trip to Richmond short! Dad-gumb! Surely....well, never mind.

[jes]

Storm tracker 10 in Mobile thinks it will make landfall around the Al/Fl border in just the next couple of hours. I think this is just the perfect storm. It's been fun reading all the posts and speculations - that creates the excitement ---- but in the end we're having a small little weather event that hurts no one.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What happened in Florida and Georgia associated with this mess?

[Category 5]

Looks like a new LLC is trying to form south of Pensacola.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Opinions?