Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[Steve]

>>Grand Isle, huh? Ok, duly noted.

50 miles or so SSE of where I live (probably 20-30 as the crow flies).

>>I have higher resolution data that takes it west between 27-28N, about 100 miles south of the LA coast right into Galveston or a bit south. But the trend is more north.

Still very reasonable that it could make its way to the Texas coastline IMHO.

Steve

[Janie2006]

And the weekend remains to be seen...after Katrina I've seen enough tropical weather to last a lifetime. We need the rain, but can do without the floods and winds this system could bring. All of us along the Mississippi coast are watching very closely, even if we aren't all that active on the board at the moment. There are simply so many vital things to do, while also trying to make an assesment about this system's possible intensity.

Quite frankly, and I have no rational basis for this, but I don't feel really threatened by this thing in the least and beyond fueling up the vehicles, I'm not going to make any additional preps. If in the unlikely event this thing blows up Friday evening to something beyond a Cat 2, I'll just drive to Jackson and stay at my other house.

Its difficult to see this system intensifying quite that much. My current thinking is a moderate tropical storm, though I can't rule out a Cat 1 hurricane.

[Agua]

Its difficult to see this system intensifying quite that much. My current thinking is a moderate tropical storm, though I can't rule out a Cat 1 hurricane.

That's my gut take on it as well with Cat 1 being pretty unlikely. Just enough of a mess to ruin outdoor plans.

[Ivanhater]

[Starburst]

The 12z Canadian brings it toward the Mobile area.


....where are all the Texas posters?

There is no system to post about. We have model runs for something that does not exist and may never exist.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 36 hours

Nobody is interested anymore to look at the models?

[Stormcenter]

18z GFS at 36 hours

Nobody is interested anymore to look at the models?

Nah too many phantom storms.

[jhamps10]

18z GFS at 36 hours

Nobody is interested anymore to look at the models?

I'm watching it mainly for what's in the carribean, I just am posting it on another board this run.

[cycloneye]

48 hours

Anyone said NW Caribbean?

54 hours

And GOM?

[cycloneye]

The rest of run is being posted in Talking Tropics Forum in the SW Caribbean Thread.

[HouTXmetro]

It appears the threat is diminishing for Texas so I'm not paying as much attention.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It appears the threat is diminishing for Texas so I'm not paying as much attention.

Ditto, it isn't wishcasting to lose interest in what will probably never be a hurricane that will miss your house by almost a time zone.


Now, I wasn't a member during Katrina, but even though it was obvious it wasn't a Texas threat, I was engrossed, just because it was so bad. Plus, I have worked in Louisiana and know people.

I'd spend more time on a thread about a 1938 storm headed for New York than a tropical depression that might make landfall in Georgia or Florida, for instance.

[jasons2k]

This TX poster has been paying attention but there just isn't much to say. Just patiently waiting for 93L to develop into a TC or STC. As I posted much earlier today, I don't think we'll have an idea of where this will really go until overnight into tomorrow.

And I don't think it's prudent to say any one area is "safe" yet when the NHC hasn't even issued its first public forecast.

[canetracker]

jschlitz posted: "This TX poster has been paying attention but there just isn't much to say. Just patiently waiting for 93L to develop into a TC or STC. As I posted much earlier today, I don't think we'll have an idea of where this will really go until overnight into tomorrow.

And I don't think it's prudent to say any one area is "safe" yet when the NHC hasn't even issued its first public forecast."

No one (Tx, La, Ms, Al, or Fl) should let their gaurd down. This is the height of cane season, there is a area of disturbed wheather trying to organize in the unpredictable GOM and it could move, slow, fast or stall and change the whole scenario. I am never comfortable with these types of situations til they landfall.
Personally, I enjoy listening to the different takes of view from different posters.

[cycloneye]

317
WHXX01 KWBC 210037
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20070921 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070921 0000 070921 1200 070922 0000 070922 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 83.9W 28.6N 85.5W 29.7N 87.0W 30.6N 88.7W
BAMD 27.4N 83.9W 28.5N 85.2W 29.6N 86.6W 30.4N 88.2W
BAMM 27.4N 83.9W 28.4N 85.4W 29.3N 86.9W 30.1N 88.5W
LBAR 27.4N 83.9W 28.1N 84.5W 29.1N 85.4W 30.4N 86.2W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070923 0000 070924 0000 070925 0000 070926 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.3N 90.8W 33.9N 95.5W 37.9N 95.5W 38.6N 88.4W
BAMD 31.2N 90.2W 34.8N 95.9W 41.2N 95.4W 48.2N 78.4W
BAMM 30.9N 90.5W 33.6N 95.5W 38.3N 95.9W 43.4N 83.2W
LBAR 31.6N 87.1W 33.8N 88.9W 37.1N 89.0W 41.2N 81.5W
SHIP 46KTS 52KTS 55KTS 41KTS
DSHP 33KTS 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 83.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 27.4N LONM12 = 83.8W DIRM12 = 241DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 28.4N LONM24 = 80.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


Almost Stationary.

[canetracker]

Correct Cycloneye and the BAMS seemed to have shifted a bit west.

[beachbum_al]

So if this thing comes in as a TS when do you think it will start coming in? Should i just plan to keep my girls out of school tomorrow? Do i need to start getting the toys out of the yard? Any new news on it?

[Jagno]

Beachbum; As unpredictable as this system has been I would wait until morning to make that call on the kids going to school. As for the toys, awwwwww go ahead and round them up and that one less thing to have to worry about anyway. LOL

[baygirl_1]

Beachbum: I've been having similar thoughts myself. Unfortunately, as a teacher I have to go to school, but I considered asking my sister to watch my kids. It's just so uncertain. Between the NHC telling us that tropical storm warnings could be issued quickly tomorrow, the workers being taken off of oil rigs in the Gulf and a local oil company flying their helicopters upstate, FEMA instructing folks still living in FEMA trailers what to do if an evacaution is ordered, and the news media talking about EMA making preparations--- my nerves are jangled! I know some of these are routine in a situation such as this, but it is still unsettling and confusing. I'm in no position to move anything on our patio or in our yard as I have a ankle injury. My DH is supposed to be headed up to the game this weekend. We're trying to decide if they should go on that trip or not. So many decisions and so little info to help us decide.

[HeeBGBz]

This storm is starting to feel like the Sword of Damocles just hanging out there. Will it? Won't it? All I know is it appears to be pointing my way. A lot of iffyness is going to lead to scurried and halfast last minute prepping.