Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[perk]

The 12z Canadian brings it toward the Mobile area.


....where are all the Texas posters?

LOL..They have gone into Lurking mode..

I'm a member of this board, i don't post here alot for various reasons, but a lurker i'm not. Now i know what you're getting at and personally i could care less what you think.

[Andy_L]

The 12z Canadian brings it toward the Mobile area.


....where are all the Texas posters?

LOL..They have gone into Lurking mode..

I'm a member of this board, i don't post here alot for various reasons, but a lurker i'm not. Now i know what you're getting at and personally i could care less what you think.

I don't think the wording of "lurker" was meant in a derogotory way....at least it wasn't taken that way when i read the post

[storms in NC]

Southerngale made a great point to me one time when I assumed wishcasting due to the absence of comments from State A members following Model X abandonment of State A to join the other models in a State B landfall. She said that people in State A (Texas in this instance) lose interest because it doesn't affect them, so its not fair to assume those who appeared to be clinging to the last outlier were wishcasting.

I am still here. And keeping a eye on things. I just havn't had nothing to say. But I still think La-Miss land fall. But really any thing from La to Fla panhandle

[southerngale]

The 12z Canadian brings it toward the Mobile area.


....where are all the Texas posters?

LOL..They have gone into Lurking mode..

I'm a member of this board, i don't post here alot for various reasons, but a lurker i'm not. Now i know what you're getting at and personally i could care less what you think.

It was a little rude, but I just don't get it. As Agua mentioned, with a point I made to him one time, if people from a certain area no longer feel threatened, it's only logical that their level of interest will drop. Some people follow the tropics closely no matter where the storm/disturbance is, but the majority of people (who follow the tropics at all, like on a message board) are not as concerned when it doesn't appear that they will be affected, for obvious reasons. So what if they stop posting as much? Naturally, they're not as concerned with a TS affecting them, so they won't be here as much, or perhaps, at all. It's almost like some of you think of this like a contest or something and that's more than bizarre.... and I see it by people from several states.

Also, be careful when generalizing.

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO 12z has landing at Grand Isle, La Sunday eve...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[storms in NC]

This maybe true to some what. But I am very concerned over 93L. So yes I guess that I have people in Fla and La I would be concerned.

But I was talking to someone the other day and they have never ever been on this board. And they made a statement that TX are always wanting a Hurricane to go to the TX shores. Now that came from someone that lives in WA state. So what can I say?. But mostly on this board is TX and Fla. They have everyone Else beat as far as states go. We here in NC have just as many storms as any one Else does. It just all depends on the setup in the Atlantic to where We on the EC get hit or not. And for this year it looks like we have lucked out once again. Now that is great to say.

Back to 93L as I read on. cause I may not post much till I see something really going on.

Deb

[Portastorm]

New EURO 12z has landing at Grand Isle, La Sunday eve...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Yep and notice how it scoots the surface low almost along the coastline from LA to TX? Looks a lot like the 0z run I suppose.

[niner21]

I'm in the Houston area and I am riding this one out with you pros!

I'm here celebrating that we might stay in the clear. Jeez, 4 days ago it was like they thought something like the end of the world was coming in to Houston.

Some people like the "ride" of a storm coming toward them. That chaotic rush of everyone getting things ready, packing to leave, or the thought of hunkering down in your "nest."

I for one like the thought of using all my supplies and having to rough it for a few days but I know deep down that if the s hit the fan for real I wouldn't dig it at all.

Some wishcast it here but they have obvoiusly never lived through a real storm.

I think it is that "can't not look at a car wreck" thing that gets people all excited. They neglect to realize that these monster storms pack more energy than 50 nuke bombs (exaggerating, so easy there) and destroy lives, companies, and property.



Now that the threat "may" be gone I'm just hoping the rain stays away till Monday....

[stormchazer]

Well I am here in Florida and frankly, you can have them all in NC or anywhere else. I do not unerstand this rivalry over who gets "creamed" the most. I like my roof and pay enough for insurance.

Take them all!

[Steve]

>>And they made a statement that TX are always wanting a Hurricane to go to the TX shores. Now that came from someone that lives in WA state. So what can I say?. But mostly on this board is TX and Fla.

Well you can substitute "LA, MS, AL, FL, NC" for "TX" and still be right. I agree with Southerngale that levels of interest wane with the majority of posters as they get spared the possibility of being directly affected. But the statecast battles go on as long as there is still a remote possibility to hang on. And it's not only storm2k. FWIW, 12z Euro has landfall near Grand Isle or some point slightly farther east in 48 hours (092207 12z = 7am Central Time on Saturday).

Steve

[niner21]

>>And they made a statement that TX are always wanting a Hurricane to go to the TX shores. Now that came from someone that lives in WA state. So what can I say?. But mostly on this board is TX and Fla.

Well you can substitute "LA, MS, AL, FL, NC" for "TX" and still be right. I agree with Southerngale that levels of interest wane with the majority of posters as they get spared the possibility of being directly affected. But the statecast battles go on as long as there is still a remote possibility to hang on. And it's not only storm2k. FWIW, 12z Euro has landfall near Grand Isle or some point slightly farther east in 48 hours (092207 12z = 7am Central Time on Saturday).

Steve

Would that mean rain in SE texas for Sunday?

[Janie2006]

If one follows the GFS, the majority of the rain would fall along the coastal sections of AL, MS, and certainly Louisiana, with the arc of moisture headed north into Arkansas.

[southerngale]

Well southerngale i'll admit that my response to the wonderful forecaster theory was a little snippy, but you can't even post an opposing view on this board without being accused of being a wonderful forecaster by some members. I wish that word had never been introduced here.

I know what you mean. This is a response I gave to a member who PM'd me about my post above...

It's ok.... I wasn't really directing all that at you, or any one person in particular. It's like some people get perceptions of a few people from various states, and it becomes like a competition, or something. It is beyond ridiculous and just strange when you think about it. Having been hit by Rita (which was devastating) and then Humberto last week, I can't for the life of me figure out why anyone would WANT that kind of destruction. But even worse.... is those who generalize and lump everyone from a certain location as being that way. And then it's hard for people who are actually concerned about a system to post about it, for fear of being accused a w!shcaster.

It's all quite annoying and frustrating.



We're getting way off topic here though. I think EVERYONE should be comfortable posting, without the fear of being accused of that. So people, post on. If someone calls you that dreaded name or gets snippy with you, PM me or any other staff member. It's OK to be concerned!

psst... if you use the ! for an i, the word censor won't get you - it's to stop people from calling others that...
So those who try to call others one, you'll end up calling them a wonderful forecaster.

I am having a birthday party tomorrow night. My nephew is going to the Texans games on Saturday (his first professional football game)... while I don't wish destruction or harm on anyone east of here, I'm personally glad the trend is away from us.

[Rocketman]

I am still here. And keeping a eye on things. I just havn't had nothing to say. But I still think La-Miss land fall. But really any thing from La to Fla panhandle

I bought a generator yesterday, but it had nothing to do with this weeks' weather...I swear.

[Janie2006]

And the weekend remains to be seen...after Katrina I've seen enough tropical weather to last a lifetime. We need the rain, but can do without the floods and winds this system could bring. All of us along the Mississippi coast are watching very closely, even if we aren't all that active on the board at the moment. There are simply so many vital things to do, while also trying to make an assesment about this system's possible intensity.

[hicksta]

Haha, some of us have school bro. Yal can take all this hurricanes i live on the water and like my house. Take everyone of these storms :]

[wxman57]

New EURO 12z has landing at Grand Isle, La Sunday eve...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Yep and notice how it scoots the surface low almost along the coastline from LA to TX? Looks a lot like the 0z run I suppose.

I have higher resolution data that takes it west between 27-28N, about 100 miles south of the LA coast right into Galveston or a bit south. But the trend is more north. All really depends on where the center forms. Grand Isle is where I have my track now, though.

[Agua]

And the weekend remains to be seen...after Katrina I've seen enough tropical weather to last a lifetime. We need the rain, but can do without the floods and winds this system could bring. All of us along the Mississippi coast are watching very closely, even if we aren't all that active on the board at the moment. There are simply so many vital things to do, while also trying to make an assesment about this system's possible intensity.

Quite frankly, and I have no rational basis for this, but I don't feel really threatened by this thing in the least and beyond fueling up the vehicles, I'm not going to make any additional preps. If in the unlikely event this thing blows up Friday evening to something beyond a Cat 2, I'll just drive to Jackson and stay at my other house.

[Portastorm]

Thanks Wxman57 ... I was hoping you'd post something as I knew the last few afternoons, you've commented on the higher resolution Euro.

Grand Isle, huh? Ok, duly noted.

[HollynLA]

WXman57, it appears as though a few models are tracking east of LA. I know that you are calling for Grand Isle at the moment as is the EURO. What is you confidence level in this with the EURO being the westward outlier?