Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_012s.gif12 hr

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_024s.gif
24 hr

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036s.gif
36 hr

[Steve]

Early Cycle Guidance for 00z:

GFS 18Z Ensembles still showed a coast runner. I wonder if the 00Zs will adjust more in line with the early 00z's?

Early 00Z intensity mostly has it borderline in 36 hours.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Steve

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048s.gif

2 days from now..humm

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_054s.gif
54 hrs

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_060s.gif
60

[southerngale]

That's inland when it starts moving west, right?

[ROCK]

I think WX57 showed us maybe it does skirt the coast as did the last EURO run......hmmmm...is right....

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_072s.gif

72

[ROCK]

That's inland when it starts moving west, right?

hard to tell but again the EURO painted this scenario as WX57 suggested that the EURO had it skirting the coast a 100miles off the coast all the way to south of Galveston.....maybe he was on to something.....time will tell...

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090s.gif

party over at 90..

[srainhoutx]

That's inland when it starts moving west, right?

hard to tell but again the EURO painted this scenario as WX57 suggested that the EURO had it skirting the coast a 100miles off the coast all the way to south of Galveston.....maybe he was on to something.....time will tell...

Watching for a flood event for a large part of N/NW GOM coastal areas due to slow movement. 100 miles of shore for a distance "could" be troubling.

[HeeBGBz]

Looking at this GFS it seems to just sit over the LA/MS/AL coast from the36-60 hour time frame. Thats a whole day or more before moving inland.

edited to remove bad link.

Sorry. See down thread.

[BigA]

Looking at this GFS it seems to just sit over the LA/MS/AL coast from the36-60 hour time frame. Thats a whole day or more before moving inland.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_0z/mrfloop.html#picture

I'm not sure if it stalling onshore (rain) or offshore (potential for intensification) would be worse... or if either will happen.

Tomorrow should make things clearer.

[Steve]

>>Looking at this GFS it seems to just sit over the LA/MS/AL coast from the36-60 hour time frame.

That looks like the 9/20 00Z run. Wouldn't that be about 27 hours old? Or is it just my cpu.

Steve

[southerngale]

>>Looking at this GFS it seems to just sit over the LA/MS/AL coast from the36-60 hour time frame.

That looks like the 9/20 00Z run. Wouldn't that be about 27 hours old? Or is it just my cpu.

Steve

Same here. I knew it looked different from what DESTRUCTION5 posted. I thought I was just sleepy! lol

[HeeBGBz]

>>Looking at this GFS it seems to just sit over the LA/MS/AL coast from the36-60 hour time frame.

That looks like the 9/20 00Z run. Wouldn't that be about 27 hours old? Or is it just my cpu.

Steve

Oops, you're right. I thought it was an automatic refresh. It doesn't appear to sit as long with the more current one, but there's that annoying L from the Caribbean showing up again.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fpc.shtml

[KFDM Meteorologist]

0Z GFDL Landfall SE LA.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[southerngale]

0Z UKMET Animation