EPAC: TD 13-E=Last Advisory : T1.5/1.5 (Still alive!)

[cycloneye]

893
WTPZ43 KNHC 192039
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007
200 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

THE DEPRESSION LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM. HOWEVER....A SMALL BURST OF NEW
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB
RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS RATHER HOSTILE.
HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
IN THE SHORT-TERM AS CONVECTION COULD INCREASE WITH THE DIURNAL
MAXIMUM LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...STABLE
AIR...COOLER SST...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72
HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS A LARGE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DECELERATE. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO INDUCE A NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT
HAS BEEN MOVED WESTWARD AT 48 AND 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.4N 128.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.4N 129.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 17.1N 130.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.4N 130.6W 25 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[RL3AO]

Weird track to say the least.

[dtrain44]

Yeah, that track looks like a wicked curveball. The sort of westerlies that would have to interact with the storm to produce that would surely weaken it before it could do a whole lot. Looks like Ivo is probably the only significant threat out there.....

[CrazyC83]

20/0000 UTC 17.9N 129.1W T1.5/2.0 13E -- East Pacific Ocean

Signs of weakening. It will be hard-pressed to become Juliette at this rate.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the 4th unnamed depression of the year.

While the Atlantic has had 26 straight depressions named.

[HURAKAN]

204
WTPZ43 KNHC 200226
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007
800 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

WHAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTED OVER THE DEPRESSION
EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSIPATED AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CLOCK IS NOW TICKING FOR THIRTEEN-E. HAVING SAID
THAT...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. IF A SOUTHWARD
TURN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO SURVIVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
GENEROUSLY MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION THROUGH 48
HOURS FOLLOWED BY DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW.

THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS
SLOWING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/05. ASSUMING THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES...THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER COMPLEX. DYNAMICAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY MEANDER OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS
THE DEPRESSION FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS
NUDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.8N 129.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 17.9N 130.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 17.6N 130.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 17.2N 130.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 17.3N 129.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 18.5N 128.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/0000Z 20.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

Looks like the 4th unnamed depression of the year.

While the Atlantic has had 26 straight depressions named.

That goes to show to the EPAC systems that if they want to get named, form in the Atlantic!!

[RL3AO]

Looks like the 4th unnamed depression of the year.

While the Atlantic has had 26 straight depressions named.

That goes to show to the EPAC systems that if they want to get named, form in the Atlantic!!

Or is the NHC more conservative with Atlantic systems?

[HURAKAN]

Looks like the 4th unnamed depression of the year.

While the Atlantic has had 26 straight depressions named.

That goes to show to the EPAC systems that if they want to get named, form in the Atlantic!!

Or is the NHC more conservative with Atlantic systems?

Or we have more tools available in the Atlantic to measure more accurately the intensity of tropical systems. Mainly RECON. In the EPAC RECON is only used when a system is a menace to Mexico or Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007
800 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007

WHAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTED OVER THE DEPRESSION
EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSIPATED AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CLOCK IS NOW TICKING FOR THIRTEEN-E. HAVING SAID
THAT...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. IF A SOUTHWARD
TURN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO SURVIVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
GENEROUSLY MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION THROUGH 48
HOURS FOLLOWED BY DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW.

THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS
SLOWING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/05. ASSUMING THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES...THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER COMPLEX. DYNAMICAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY MEANDER OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS
THE DEPRESSION FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS
NUDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.8N 129.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 17.9N 130.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 17.6N 130.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 17.2N 130.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 17.3N 129.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 18.5N 128.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/0000Z 20.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

Goodbye very soon!.

[HurricaneRobert]

This just isn't Juliette.

[HURAKAN]

149
WHXX01 KMIA 201305
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1305 UTC THU SEP 20 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN (EP132007) 20070920 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070920 1200 070921 0000 070921 1200 070922 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 130.0W 18.3N 130.9W 18.5N 131.7W 18.7N 132.2W
BAMD 18.0N 130.0W 18.3N 130.6W 18.3N 131.0W 18.4N 131.2W
BAMM 18.0N 130.0W 18.3N 130.5W 18.3N 130.9W 18.3N 131.4W
LBAR 18.0N 130.0W 18.2N 130.3W 18.6N 130.2W 19.0N 129.6W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 25KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 25KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070922 1200 070923 1200 070924 1200 070925 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 132.8W 18.9N 133.9W 19.3N 135.4W 19.9N 137.7W
BAMD 18.9N 131.1W 21.1N 128.3W 23.7N 128.6W 25.5N 129.7W
BAMM 18.5N 131.6W 18.6N 131.8W 19.3N 132.1W 20.4N 133.1W
LBAR 19.6N 128.5W 21.7N 125.1W 26.1N 121.8W 31.4N 118.8W
SHIP 30KTS 27KTS 28KTS 26KTS
DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 28KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 130.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 129.1W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 127.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Bye!!!

[Chacor]

912
WTPZ43 KNHC 201436
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007
800 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2007

ONE LONELY CELL OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
AND THIS IS THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME. DESPITE VERTICAL
SHEAR BEING VERY WEAK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF
COOL SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD
THE CYCLONE'S DEMISE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR NO
REDEVELOPMENT AND DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HR...AND THIS
WILL OCCUR SOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RESUME SHORTLY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGE...AND HWRF
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 5 KT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS AND TURNS THE SYSTEM
SOUTH AND THEN EAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEARS THE CYCLONE AND REVERSES THE LOWER LEVEL
STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS MINUS THE UKMET...WHICH APPEARS TO MAINTAIN TOO STRONG A
VORTEX AND IS AN OUTLIER FAR TO THE WEST. THIS TRACK FORECAST DOES
PROSCRIBE A SMALL LOOP FOR THE DEPRESSION...SIMILAR TO BUT QUICKER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 17.9N 130.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 17.9N 130.6W 25 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 130.6W 25 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 17.3N 129.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/1200Z 17.5N 129.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

[CrazyC83]

20/1800 UTC 18.0N 130.0W T1.0/1.0 13E

Stick a fork in this, it is done...

[cycloneye]

080
WTPZ43 KNHC 202026
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132007
200 PM PDT THU SEP 20 2007

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED IN THE SYSTEM DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. A 1422Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN 18Z SHIP REPORT NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER SUGGESTED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE
ALSO DROPPED TO 25 KT...WHICH IS CHOSEN AS THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN LIKELY HAS DECAYED DUE TO COOL SSTS AND
A STABLE AND DRY ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF
CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERION FOR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE ITS LAST ADVISORY.

THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT
4 KT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. LOW-LEVEL
STEERING SHOULD NEARLY COLLAPSE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN
BACK TO THE EAST INDICATED BETWEEN 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR THE REMNANT
LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 17.7N 130.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 17.6N 130.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 130.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 22/0600Z 17.4N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/1800Z 17.4N 129.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

Adios!

[RL3AO]

It was too young.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Wow, maybe they stopped too soon?

[HURAKAN]

Wow, maybe they stopped too soon?

21/0000 UTC 17.7N 130.6W T1.0/1.0 13E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

They didn't update ATCF.