Tropical Depression 14W (WPAC)

#1 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:23 am

Added to NRL last night. Looks like a mess at this point.

Chacor · #2 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:55 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.6N 137.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YAP. AN AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE UNDER AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AT YAP HAVE BEEN
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 MB. A 19/0844Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE DISPLAYED UNFLAGGED
WINDS OF 20 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, WHICH HAS INHIBITED
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

Chacor · #3 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:05 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 09N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.

#4 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:38 pm

Chacor wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 09N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Per JMA or JTWC?

#5 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 2:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Chacor wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 09N 138E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Per JMA or JTWC?

That is JMA.

Coredesat · #6 Postby **Coredesat** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:26 pm

TCFA:

WTPN21 PGTW 192000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 137.8E TO 12.9N 135.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 191800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 137.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N
137.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST
OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
BANDING IS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND BEGINNING TO
WRAP TOWARD THE LLCC, AS SEEN IN A 191259Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE.
A 190847Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 20 KTS NEAR THE
CENTER, WHICH CORRESPOND WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KTS
OBSERVED AT YAP. THE 191200Z SKEW-T AT YAP SHOWS APPROXIMATELY
40 KTS AT 970 MB, AND 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS HAVE RANGED
FROM 2 TO 3 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TUTT CELL THAT
WAS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AND
MOVED WESTWARD. THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC
AND THE LATEST OBSERVED DATA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 202000Z.

#7 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:31 pm

This looks like we will have a tropical storm soon...

#8 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 8:03 pm

19/2033 UTC 10.5N 137.1E T1.5/1.5 93W -- West Pacific Ocean

Chacor · #9 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Sep 20, 2007 9:10 am

TD 14W.

201500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 136.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
460 NM WEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 191951Z SEP 07 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 192000). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

Chacor · #10 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Sep 20, 2007 11:06 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST FRI SEP 21 2007

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W FORMS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 1 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
136.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 610 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
540 MILES WEST OF GUAM...
330 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP...AND
500 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS
SAME GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN SLOWLY INTENSIFY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 14.1 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 136.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST.

$$

CHAN

#11 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:49 pm

WWJP25 RJTD 201200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 39N 124E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 124E TO 40N 127E 40N 130E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 124E TO 35N 125E 29N 123E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 47N 152E 55N 161E
60N 163E 60N 175E 48N 175E 42N 155E 47N 152E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 55N 134E EAST 30 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 61N 158E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 49N 159E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 27N 161E WSW 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 137E NORTH 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 18N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 44N 179E EAST 25 KT.
WARM FRONT FROM 49N 159E TO 49N 160E 48N 163E.
COLD FRONT FROM 49N 159E TO 45N 155E 42N 150E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 130E TO 40N 135E 42N 140E 42N 145E 42N
150E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

#12 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:44 pm

20/1433 UTC 14.7N 136.3E T2.5/2.5 14W

I'd say we might have a tropical storm...

ajaxw · #13 Postby **ajaxw** » Thu Sep 20, 2007 8:35 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM CHST FRI SEP 21 2007

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY YAP

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 7 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
136.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 640 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
575 MILES WEST OF GUAM...
370 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP...AND
510 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS
SAME GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN SLOWLY INTENSIFY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 14.5 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 136.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST.

#14 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Sep 21, 2007 2:30 pm

Final JTWC advisory issued. Looks like this is going to go down as a dud.

Tropical Depression 14W (WPAC)

Tropical Depression 14W (WPAC)

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Tropical Depression 14W (WPAC)

NWS Advisory #2

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