personal forecast on 10

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical storm 10
Forecast 1#
12pm pst/3pm est
9-21-2007

...Tropical storm forms over the northern Gulf of Mexico near the coast...

The extratropical low pressure that moved over florida, and into the gulf over the last few days. Has slowly required a tropical warm core and tropical storm force winds off the last recon. Recon found 47 knot flight level, which is around 43 mph at .8 reduce. Sfmr shows 37-38 knot winds at the surface. We recon also found a warm core on our tropical cyclone. Because of the warm convection we will go low on our winds and say 35 knots. Even so a little convection has formed just north of the LLC. Strengthing to 45 knots is expected as we think this has about 12 more hours over water. A northwest track is being forecasted intill landfall.

A weak ridge is holding to the north, which is helping to move the system west of north. This ridge should weaken with in the next 6-12 hours to help it move more northward into land. After 36 hours we expect the ridge to reform to the north of the cyclone. To push it west-northwest while inland.

0 29.7/86.2 35 knots
6 29.9/86.7 40 knots
12 30.2/87.2 45 knots
24 30.8/88.7 30 knots


Post away


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[beachbum_al]

And it fizzles out by Saturday.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.