Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280350
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 02 20070928
034230 3022N 08857W 9349 00718 0147 +216 +196 332010 011 999 999 03
034300 3020N 08858W 9239 00826 0154 +208 +186 345013 013 999 999 03
034330 3018N 08859W 9185 00878 0156 +204 +180 352013 014 999 999 03
034400 3017N 08859W 9055 01005 0159 +200 +164 001014 015 999 999 03
034430 3015N 08900W 8647 01396 0155 +170 +152 014012 013 999 999 03
034500 3013N 08901W 8459 01587 0163 +152 +146 028012 012 999 999 03
034530 3011N 08903W 8456 01590 0161 +156 +142 030012 013 999 999 03
034600 3010N 08904W 8349 01694 0154 +154 +122 030010 011 999 999 03
034630 3008N 08904W 8038 02018 0152 +142 +094 023009 009 999 999 03
034700 3006N 08905W 7723 02355 0151 +122 +078 011010 012 999 999 03
034730 3004N 08906W 7451 02654 0154 +100 +066 357011 012 999 999 03
034800 3002N 08907W 7186 02958 0153 +086 +046 337010 011 999 999 03
034830 3001N 08908W 7023 03150 0154 +076 +024 330013 013 999 999 03
034900 2959N 08909W 6997 03181 0152 +076 +026 330011 012 999 999 03
034930 2957N 08911W 6985 03199 0156 +076 +030 331010 010 999 999 03
035000 2955N 08912W 6985 03200 0156 +076 +030 330012 012 999 999 03
035030 2953N 08913W 6956 03230 0153 +074 +012 325013 014 999 999 03
035100 2951N 08914W 6757 03472 0157 +058 +014 310014 016 999 999 03
035130 2949N 08915W 6482 03813 0159 +036 +004 306018 018 999 999 03
035200 2947N 08915W 6237 04125 0160 +016 -011 298018 019 999 999 03
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280400
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 03 20070928
035230 2945N 08916W 6026 04392 0150 -003 -015 284018 019 999 999 03
035300 2943N 08917W 5834 04631 0119 -015 -029 266020 020 999 999 03
035330 2941N 08918W 5671 04861 0115 -025 -029 271024 026 999 999 03
035400 2940N 08919W 5523 05085 0117 -031 -045 271022 024 999 999 03
035430 2938N 08920W 5415 05243 0262 -043 -053 284021 024 999 999 03
035500 2936N 08921W 5308 05404 0274 -051 -061 272021 022 999 999 03
035530 2934N 08922W 5173 05607 0285 -065 -069 274021 021 999 999 03
035600 2933N 08923W 5068 05767 0293 -075 -081 271024 026 999 999 03
035630 2931N 08924W 5002 05873 0302 -079 -097 275025 026 999 999 03
035700 2929N 08925W 4994 05897 0314 -079 -103 273024 024 999 999 03
035730 2927N 08926W 4979 05910 0306 -077 -113 279023 023 999 999 03
035800 2925N 08927W 4930 05979 0301 -081 -127 284023 024 999 999 03
035830 2923N 08928W 4846 06092 0289 -089 -139 279026 026 999 999 03
035900 2921N 08929W 4692 06354 0314 -109 -143 282027 027 999 999 03
035930 2919N 08930W 4612 06493 0328 -115 -165 288027 027 999 999 03
040000 2917N 08931W 4514 06658 0337 -121 -175 285026 027 999 999 03
040030 2915N 08932W 4420 06815 0342 -131 -187 277027 027 999 999 03
040100 2913N 08933W 4353 06938 0356 -139 -191 279026 026 999 999 03
040130 2911N 08934W 4295 07044 0366 -145 -229 281026 026 999 999 03
040200 2909N 08935W 4236 07151 0373 -149 -253 281027 028 999 999 03
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280410
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 04 20070928
040230 2907N 08936W 4158 07287 0378 -157 -253 283027 027 999 999 03
040300 2905N 08937W 4109 07378 0384 -165 -241 287026 026 999 999 03
040330 2903N 08938W 4053 07483 0391 -175 -219 285027 027 999 999 03
040400 2901N 08939W 4011 07563 0397 -179 -193 288029 031 999 999 03
040430 2859N 08941W 3994 07597 0402 -185 -219 286028 029 999 999 03
040500 2857N 08942W 3994 07599 0404 -187 -223 289030 031 999 999 03
040530 2855N 08943W 3995 07599 0405 -187 -247 290031 031 999 999 03
040600 2852N 08944W 3995 07601 0407 -185 -299 294029 029 999 999 03
040630 2850N 08945W 3996 07599 0407 -185 -289 296028 029 999 999 03
040700 2848N 08946W 3995 07599 0406 -181 -275 294027 027 999 999 03
040730 2845N 08948W 3996 07597 0405 -181 -279 293027 028 999 999 03
040800 2843N 08949W 3996 07595 0404 -179 -295 294031 034 999 999 03
040830 2841N 08950W 3996 07597 0405 -173 -313 293035 036 999 999 03
040900 2838N 08951W 3996 07598 0406 -171 -317 292035 037 999 999 03
040930 2836N 08953W 3997 07597 0407 -171 -315 293036 036 999 999 03
041000 2833N 08954W 3996 07602 0411 -169 -323 292036 036 999 999 03
041030 2831N 08955W 3997 07605 0415 -165 -325 291035 036 999 999 03
041100 2828N 08956W 3996 07617 0426 -165 -327 290035 035 999 999 03
041130 2826N 08958W 3996 07610 0419 -165 -329 292035 035 999 999 03
041200 2823N 08959W 3997 07611 0421 -169 -331 294034 034 999 999 03
$$

[JonathanBelles]

How far are they from the center?

[Terry]

UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

As much as I enjoy tracking tropical cyclones, this is going to be another tragic event in Mexico.

[Category 5]

UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

As much as I enjoy tracking tropical cyclones, this is going to be another tragic event in Mexico.

Especially since Dean already soaked the area last month.

My prayers go out to all in Lorenzo's path.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280420
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 05 20070928
041230 2821N 09000W 3997 07612 0422 -165 -289 295034 034 999 999 03
041300 2819N 09001W 3996 07612 0421 -165 -165 294033 033 999 999 05
041330 2816N 09003W 3997 07610 0420 -165 -165 296033 033 999 999 05
041400 2814N 09004W 3997 07613 0423 -167 -167 297033 034 999 999 05
041430 2811N 09005W 3996 07613 0422 -171 -171 297032 032 999 999 05
041500 2809N 09007W 3996 07616 0425 -167 -167 297032 032 999 999 05
041530 2806N 09008W 3997 07614 0424 -165 -165 298032 033 999 999 03
041600 2804N 09009W 3996 07619 0428 -165 -357 297032 032 999 999 03
041630 2801N 09011W 3997 07620 0430 -165 -387 297031 031 999 999 03
041700 2759N 09012W 3996 07623 0432 -165 -353 296032 032 999 999 03
041730 2756N 09013W 3996 07623 0432 -165 -321 297033 033 999 999 03
041800 2754N 09015W 3997 07622 0432 -165 -307 298033 033 999 999 03
041830 2752N 09016W 3996 07626 0435 -165 -271 297032 032 999 999 03
041900 2749N 09017W 3997 07624 0434 -165 -269 298030 031 999 999 03
041930 2747N 09019W 3997 07624 0434 -165 -269 300030 030 999 999 03
042000 2744N 09020W 3996 07626 0434 -167 -265 301029 029 999 999 03
042030 2742N 09021W 3997 07626 0436 -171 -263 302029 029 999 999 03
042100 2739N 09023W 3996 07627 0436 -171 -267 303029 030 999 999 03
042130 2737N 09024W 3996 07626 0435 -167 -263 302030 030 999 999 03
042200 2734N 09025W 3997 07624 0435 -165 -265 305031 031 999 999 03
$$

[Swimdude]

I'm assuming it'll be awhile until the plane gets to Lorenzo... Bummer. Sleep is calling.

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks like the eye is moving ashore per the most recent radar image from Alvarado, Mexico. I expect a special advisory within the next hour with a landfall location and intensity estimation.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-alva.gif

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280430
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 06 20070928
042230 2732N 09027W 3996 07629 0437 -165 -285 303029 030 999 999 03
042300 2729N 09028W 3996 07626 0435 -165 -293 303029 029 999 999 03
042330 2727N 09029W 3996 07628 0436 -165 -299 302028 028 999 999 03
042400 2724N 09031W 3997 07627 0437 -165 -291 304027 027 999 999 03
042430 2722N 09032W 3997 07629 0439 -165 -301 307028 028 999 999 03
042500 2719N 09034W 3996 07627 0436 -165 -303 309029 029 999 999 03
042530 2717N 09035W 3996 07627 0436 -165 -309 310028 029 999 999 03
042600 2714N 09036W 3997 07629 0439 -165 -309 310028 028 999 999 03
042630 2712N 09038W 3997 07630 0440 -165 -309 311028 028 999 999 03
042700 2709N 09039W 3996 07632 0441 -165 -309 313028 028 999 999 03
042730 2707N 09040W 3996 07633 0441 -165 -313 313028 028 999 999 03
042800 2704N 09042W 3997 07632 0442 -165 -317 314027 028 999 999 03
042830 2702N 09043W 3997 07633 0443 -165 -317 317028 028 999 999 03
042900 2659N 09044W 3996 07636 0445 -165 -327 317028 028 999 999 03
042930 2657N 09046W 3995 07640 0447 -165 -331 311026 027 999 999 03
043000 2654N 09047W 3996 07640 0449 -163 -335 305024 024 999 999 03
043030 2652N 09048W 3996 07640 0449 -165 -317 305024 024 999 999 03
043100 2649N 09050W 3997 07639 0449 -165 -325 309024 025 999 999 03
043130 2647N 09051W 3997 07638 0448 -165 -309 308025 025 999 999 03
043200 2644N 09052W 3997 07638 0448 -165 -311 311025 025 999 999 03
$$
=

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280440
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 07 20070928
043230 2642N 09054W 3997 07639 0449 -165 -287 314025 025 999 999 03
043300 2639N 09055W 3995 07644 0450 -165 -275 310026 026 999 999 03
043330 2637N 09056W 3996 07640 0449 -161 -313 308026 026 999 999 03
043400 2634N 09058W 3998 07636 0448 -161 -303 310026 026 999 999 03
043430 2632N 09059W 3996 07640 0448 -161 -295 310026 026 999 999 03
043500 2629N 09100W 3996 07638 0447 -161 -313 312025 026 999 999 03
043530 2627N 09101W 3996 07639 0447 -161 -299 311025 025 999 999 03
043600 2624N 09102W 3996 07639 0448 -161 -309 311025 025 999 999 03
043630 2621N 09103W 3997 07639 0449 -161 -317 312024 025 999 999 03
043700 2619N 09105W 3996 07640 0449 -161 -309 311024 024 999 999 03
043730 2616N 09106W 3996 07637 0446 -161 -319 311024 024 999 999 03
043800 2613N 09107W 3996 07640 0448 -161 -301 311023 024 999 999 03
043830 2611N 09108W 3997 07639 0449 -161 -315 312023 025 999 999 03
043900 2608N 09109W 3996 07639 0447 -161 -315 313023 023 999 999 03
043930 2605N 09110W 3996 07638 0447 -161 -347 316023 023 999 999 03
044000 2603N 09111W 3996 07640 0448 -161 -339 318023 023 999 999 03
044030 2600N 09112W 3997 07638 0449 -161 -351 320022 023 999 999 03
044100 2557N 09113W 3996 07640 0449 -157 -359 319023 023 999 999 03
044130 2555N 09114W 3996 07640 0449 -157 -357 319022 023 999 999 03
044200 2552N 09115W 3997 07638 0448 -159 -365 320021 022 999 999 03
$$

Look to be about halfway to the storm.

[Derek Ortt]

looks to be a little offshore still... but should be inland before recon gets there

based upon the satellite, I'd say 75-80KT as it was organizing as it approached the coastline

won't get a special advisory, maybe a tropical cyclone update

[WindRunner]

looks to be a little offshore still... but should be inland before recon gets there

based upon the satellite, I'd say 75-80KT as it was organizing as it approached the coastline

won't get a special advisory, maybe a tropical cyclone update

Sounds about right . . . though we'll probably see 75kts at most, unless recon gets there and finds better. Considering how most of the deeper convection was in the eastern quad earlier this evening, it is possible the storm moves on shore and recon can still find representative high winds . . . much like they were doing in the eastern and NE quads of Humberto as it made landfall.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280450
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 08 20070928
044230 2550N 09116W 3996 07639 0448 -157 -363 320022 023 999 999 03
044300 2547N 09117W 3996 07641 0450 -155 -363 322022 022 999 999 03
044330 2544N 09118W 3995 07640 0447 -159 -367 323020 021 999 999 03
044400 2542N 09119W 3996 07641 0449 -163 -355 324018 018 999 999 03
044430 2539N 09120W 3997 07641 0451 -163 -371 323018 018 999 999 03
044500 2536N 09121W 3997 07637 0448 -157 -363 327021 021 999 999 03
044530 2533N 09122W 3996 07641 0449 -155 -373 329021 021 999 999 03
044600 2531N 09123W 3996 07641 0450 -159 -369 329019 020 999 999 03
044630 2528N 09124W 3996 07637 0445 -165 -369 331017 017 999 999 03
044700 2525N 09126W 3996 07621 0430 -163 -365 333017 018 999 999 03
044730 2523N 09127W 3997 07619 0429 -159 -375 332018 019 999 999 03
044800 2520N 09128W 3996 07621 0430 -155 -375 333019 019 999 999 03
044830 2517N 09129W 3996 07622 0430 -155 -375 333019 020 999 999 03
044900 2515N 09130W 3997 07621 0431 -161 -375 335018 019 999 999 03
044930 2512N 09131W 3996 07622 0431 -157 -373 335018 018 999 999 03
045000 2509N 09132W 3996 07622 0431 -159 -371 336017 018 999 999 03
045030 2507N 09133W 3996 07623 0432 -161 -369 336017 017 999 999 03
045100 2504N 09134W 3997 07622 0432 -161 -371 336016 017 999 999 03
045130 2501N 09135W 3996 07623 0432 -161 -367 336015 016 999 999 03
045200 2459N 09136W 3996 07625 0434 -161 -365 334015 015 999 999 03
$$

[CrazyC83]

RNT15 KNHC 280500
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 09 20070928
045230 2456N 09137W 3994 07632 0437 -165 -361 330012 014 999 999 03
045300 2453N 09138W 3997 07626 0437 -167 -353 332011 011 999 999 03
045330 2451N 09139W 3996 07630 0438 -165 -359 331011 012 999 999 03
045400 2448N 09140W 3996 07631 0440 -169 -349 320008 008 999 999 03
045430 2445N 09141W 3997 07630 0440 -165 -341 313008 008 999 999 03
045500 2443N 09142W 3998 07628 0440 -163 -257 322007 010 999 999 03
045530 2440N 09143W 3996 07631 0439 -169 -249 325009 011 999 999 03
045600 2437N 09144W 3996 07630 0439 -169 -245 315010 011 999 999 03
045630 2435N 09145W 3996 07630 0438 -171 -227 336009 011 999 999 03
045700 2432N 09146W 3996 07629 0438 -171 -215 046005 006 999 999 03
045730 2430N 09148W 3997 07627 0438 -171 -211 064008 011 999 999 03
045800 2428N 09150W 3994 07636 0441 -175 -205 120009 012 999 999 03
045830 2426N 09152W 3999 07627 0440 -167 -219 343002 003 999 999 03
045900 2424N 09154W 4003 07616 0436 -161 -233 080003 008 999 999 03
045930 2422N 09156W 3993 07631 0434 -165 -251 056011 012 999 999 03
050000 2420N 09158W 3995 07628 0435 -165 -249 053010 011 999 999 03
050030 2418N 09200W 3996 07626 0435 -161 -317 040007 008 999 999 03
050100 2416N 09202W 3994 07631 0436 -161 -317 018006 007 999 999 03
050130 2415N 09204W 3996 07627 0436 -165 -299 011007 007 999 999 03
050200 2413N 09206W 3996 07626 0435 -165 -299 012010 011 999 999 03
$$

[Chacor]

SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...T. S. LORENZO

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
28/0015 UTC 20.5N 96.1W 260/04 20.5 IN 25.8 IN

Why is TPC saying 5-10, isolated 15 inches when the satellite estimates are nearer 20?

[vbhoutex]

If it continues the right turn from W to NW to N to E then it would end up in the GOM, It never said it would be just a slight right turn, but a right turn around the ridge.

The ridge it is going to be rounding goes back up into the US. Back to the GOM is not impossible, but it is IMPROBABLE and NOT LIKELY AT ALL!! I'm not so sure the moisture associated with Lorenzo that moves North eventually will come far enough East to get to LA, but a local OCM did mention the probability of our area(SE TX)having to deal with some of thie moisture in several days.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280510
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 10 20070928
050230 2411N 09209W 3996 07626 0434 -165 -317 001010 011 999 999 03
050300 2409N 09211W 3997 07623 0433 -165 -329 008010 010 999 999 03
050330 2407N 09213W 3995 07627 0434 -163 -337 010011 012 999 999 03
050400 2405N 09215W 3996 07625 0434 -163 -337 012012 012 999 999 03
050430 2403N 09217W 3996 07626 0434 -161 -343 023012 013 999 999 03
050500 2401N 09219W 3996 07624 0433 -161 -339 020011 012 999 999 03
050530 2359N 09221W 3997 07622 0432 -161 -305 019010 011 999 999 03
050600 2357N 09223W 3995 07627 0433 -161 -333 024009 010 999 999 03
050630 2355N 09225W 3997 07623 0433 -161 -345 019010 011 999 999 03
050700 2354N 09228W 3995 07627 0434 -161 -349 028010 010 999 999 03
050730 2352N 09230W 3996 07626 0434 -161 -343 025010 010 999 999 03
050800 2350N 09232W 3996 07626 0435 -161 -335 030009 009 999 999 03
050830 2348N 09234W 3996 07628 0437 -161 -331 031007 008 999 999 03
050900 2346N 09236W 3996 07629 0437 -161 -325 034007 007 999 999 03
050930 2344N 09238W 3996 07626 0435 -161 -317 028006 007 999 999 03
051000 2342N 09240W 3996 07626 0434 -161 -331 022007 008 999 999 03
051030 2340N 09242W 3996 07626 0434 -161 -335 025009 010 999 999 03
051100 2338N 09244W 3996 07625 0434 -161 -335 029009 009 999 999 03
051130 2336N 09246W 3997 07623 0433 -161 -335 032008 009 999 999 03
051200 2334N 09249W 3996 07625 0433 -161 -343 042010 011 999 999 03
$$

[WindRunner]

SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...T. S. LORENZO

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
28/0015 UTC 20.5N 96.1W 260/04 20.5 IN 25.8 IN

Why is TPC saying 5-10, isolated 15 inches when the satellite estimates are nearer 20?

Rainfall statements come straight from HPC . . . and they definately take into account the satellite estimates when making the statement. I'm sure they have some good reason for it, even if it isn't apparent.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280520
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 11 20070928
051230 2333N 09251W 3996 07625 0433 -161 -349 045012 013 999 999 03
051300 2331N 09253W 3997 07625 0435 -161 -311 042011 013 999 999 03
051330 2329N 09255W 3995 07627 0434 -161 -343 038013 013 999 999 03
051400 2327N 09257W 3996 07628 0436 -161 -337 038014 015 999 999 03
051430 2325N 09259W 3997 07625 0435 -161 -341 035013 014 999 999 03
051500 2323N 09301W 3996 07628 0436 -161 -333 037012 013 999 999 03
051530 2321N 09303W 3996 07627 0436 -161 -335 038012 012 999 999 03
051600 2319N 09305W 3996 07627 0436 -161 -307 043010 011 999 999 03
051630 2317N 09307W 3996 07628 0437 -161 -273 054009 010 999 999 03
051700 2315N 09310W 3995 07629 0436 -161 -269 062010 011 999 999 03
051730 2313N 09312W 3996 07628 0437 -161 -269 080012 013 999 999 03
051800 2311N 09314W 3996 07628 0436 -161 -265 079012 012 999 999 03
051830 2309N 09316W 3996 07627 0436 -161 -299 076012 012 999 999 03
051900 2307N 09318W 3995 07629 0436 -161 -273 075013 013 999 999 03
051930 2305N 09320W 3997 07628 0438 -161 -307 084013 013 999 999 03
052000 2303N 09322W 3996 07630 0438 -159 -309 086013 014 999 999 03
052030 2302N 09324W 3996 07631 0439 -159 -311 078014 014 999 999 03
052100 2300N 09326W 3996 07629 0438 -161 -291 067014 014 999 999 03
052130 2258N 09328W 3996 07629 0437 -159 -309 062014 014 999 999 03
052200 2256N 09331W 3996 07630 0438 -157 -301 059014 014 999 999 03
$$