Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280530
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 12 20070928
052230 2254N 09333W 3996 07631 0440 -159 -303 057013 014 999 999 03
052300 2252N 09335W 3996 07633 0441 -155 -295 069012 013 999 999 03
052330 2250N 09337W 3996 07632 0441 -159 -253 075013 014 999 999 03
052400 2248N 09339W 3996 07632 0441 -159 -223 074015 016 999 999 03
052430 2246N 09341W 3996 07631 0440 -159 -221 060017 018 999 999 03
052500 2244N 09343W 3996 07631 0440 -155 -275 057015 015 999 999 03
052530 2242N 09346W 3996 07630 0439 -161 -261 057015 015 999 999 03
052600 2240N 09348W 3997 07629 0439 -159 -249 060017 018 999 999 03
052630 2238N 09350W 3996 07630 0439 -157 -247 061015 016 999 999 03
052700 2236N 09352W 3996 07629 0438 -159 -245 063015 015 999 999 03
052730 2234N 09354W 3996 07630 0438 -159 -249 064014 015 999 999 03
052800 2232N 09356W 3997 07628 0439 -157 -257 070014 015 999 999 03
052830 2230N 09358W 3995 07632 0439 -155 -267 069013 013 999 999 03
052900 2228N 09401W 3997 07630 0440 -157 -265 064014 015 999 999 03
052930 2226N 09403W 3996 07631 0439 -159 -267 063016 016 999 999 03
053000 2224N 09405W 3996 07630 0439 -155 -289 062016 016 999 999 03
053030 2222N 09407W 3997 07629 0439 -155 -273 063016 017 999 999 03
053100 2220N 09409W 3996 07631 0439 -155 -295 068016 016 999 999 03
053130 2218N 09411W 3996 07630 0439 -155 -283 066016 017 999 999 03
053200 2216N 09414W 3995 07633 0440 -155 -267 067016 017 999 999 03
$$

[WindRunner]

Should start decending sometime in the next 20 minutes.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280540
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 13 20070928
053230 2214N 09416W 3997 07630 0440 -155 -265 063018 019 999 999 03
053300 2211N 09418W 3997 07629 0439 -155 -271 072017 018 999 999 03
053330 2209N 09420W 4001 07623 0440 -153 -277 074018 019 999 999 03
053400 2208N 09422W 3997 07622 0433 -155 -321 080019 019 999 999 03
053430 2206N 09424W 3996 07624 0433 -157 -313 082020 020 999 999 03
053500 2204N 09426W 3996 07622 0431 -155 -317 085020 020 999 999 03
053530 2202N 09428W 3996 07622 0430 -159 -309 082021 021 999 999 03
053600 2201N 09429W 3996 07621 0430 -161 -293 081023 024 999 999 03
053630 2200N 09432W 3995 07624 0431 -161 -297 083024 025 999 999 03
053700 2159N 09435W 4000 07616 0432 -161 -301 084024 025 999 999 03
053730 2158N 09437W 4168 07319 0427 -141 -293 086027 028 999 999 03
053800 2158N 09440W 4486 06766 0400 -103 -267 091024 029 999 999 03
053830 2157N 09443W 4789 06258 0368 -073 -157 085017 019 999 999 03
053900 2157N 09446W 5082 05793 0339 -045 -113 077014 015 999 999 03
053930 2156N 09449W 5398 05313 0308 -019 -101 072015 016 999 999 03
054000 2155N 09452W 5724 04840 0127 +006 -073 074013 014 999 999 03
054030 2155N 09455W 6068 04370 0143 +026 -021 082015 015 999 999 03
054100 2154N 09458W 6408 03923 0139 +054 +004 085012 013 999 999 03
054130 2153N 09500W 6745 03499 0143 +072 +072 089012 012 999 999 05
054200 2153N 09503W 7110 03059 0139 +098 +098 085014 015 999 999 05
$$

Descending to operational altitude.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280550
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 14 20070928
054230 2152N 09506W 7486 02624 0142 +118 +118 120012 013 999 999 05
054300 2152N 09508W 7866 02201 0141 +138 +138 127010 011 999 999 05
054330 2151N 09511W 8251 01787 0136 +162 +116 112012 015 999 999 03
054400 2151N 09513W 8434 01578 0113 +170 +130 097016 016 999 999 03
054430 2150N 09515W 8434 01566 0100 +170 +130 099016 016 999 999 03
054500 2150N 09517W 8429 01574 0103 +170 +130 101016 017 999 999 03
054530 2149N 09519W 8431 01572 0103 +170 +130 106015 016 999 999 03
054600 2149N 09521W 8431 01581 0113 +170 +128 111014 014 999 999 03
054630 2148N 09523W 8430 01582 0113 +170 +128 106014 014 999 999 03
054700 2148N 09525W 8431 01584 0116 +172 +126 103014 014 999 999 03
054730 2147N 09527W 8430 01585 0113 +176 +124 097014 014 999 999 03
054800 2145N 09528W 8430 01586 0115 +176 +114 098013 014 999 999 03
054830 2144N 09529W 8431 01586 0115 +178 +108 100013 013 999 999 03
054900 2143N 09531W 8430 01588 0116 +178 +108 100013 014 999 999 03
054930 2141N 09532W 8431 01587 0116 +180 +104 093014 014 999 999 03
055000 2140N 09534W 8430 01586 0113 +180 +104 086014 014 999 999 03
055030 2139N 09535W 8430 01587 0116 +176 +122 088014 014 999 999 03
055100 2137N 09537W 8431 01586 0117 +172 +136 097013 014 999 999 03
055130 2136N 09538W 8431 01586 0118 +170 +142 101013 013 999 999 03
055200 2135N 09540W 8430 01587 0118 +170 +138 119014 015 999 999 03
$$

Now at operational altitude.

[Derek Ortt]

it's too late, landfall occurred

[dwsqos2]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 280546
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENZO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

...LORENZO MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA
TO VERACRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED
JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES...65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS LORENZO
PROCEEDS FARTHER INLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LORENZO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS LORENZO
MOVES INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL.

LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...20.4 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Cyclenall]

it's too late, landfall occurred

It did a while ago, but that doesn't mean it's too late to get some quick data for part of the cyclone!

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280600
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 15 20070928
055230 2133N 09541W 8431 01586 0117 +172 +136 133014 014 999 999 03
055300 2132N 09542W 8430 01588 0117 +174 +138 135014 014 999 999 03
055330 2131N 09544W 8431 01585 0116 +172 +140 135012 013 999 999 03
055400 2130N 09545W 8430 01585 0112 +176 +140 134011 012 999 999 03
055430 2128N 09547W 8430 01586 0116 +170 +146 122012 012 999 999 03
055500 2127N 09548W 8431 01584 0115 +170 +146 112011 011 999 999 03
055530 2126N 09550W 8430 01586 0115 +172 +146 102009 011 999 999 03
055600 2124N 09551W 8431 01586 0116 +172 +146 106007 008 999 999 03
055630 2123N 09552W 8430 01586 0115 +174 +136 130007 007 999 999 03
055700 2122N 09554W 8430 01586 0117 +170 +142 122008 008 999 999 03
055730 2120N 09555W 8430 01586 0116 +172 +138 122008 009 999 999 03
055800 2119N 09557W 8431 01587 0119 +170 +142 115009 009 999 999 03
055830 2118N 09558W 8430 01586 0117 +170 +136 113009 009 999 999 03
055900 2117N 09600W 8428 01586 0115 +170 +132 113008 008 999 999 03
055930 2115N 09601W 8429 01587 0117 +170 +132 105009 009 999 999 03
060000 2114N 09603W 8431 01584 0116 +170 +136 107009 010 999 999 03
060030 2112N 09604W 8430 01584 0117 +166 +142 117011 012 999 999 03
060100 2111N 09606W 8431 01582 0113 +170 +140 127012 013 999 999 03
060130 2110N 09607W 8429 01585 0115 +168 +144 131013 013 999 999 03
060200 2108N 09608W 8432 01582 0114 +172 +132 143014 015 999 999 03
$$

Someone else take over...

[wxmann_91]

I've never done this, hopefully I'm doing this right

000
URNT15 KNHC 280610
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 16 20070928
060230 2107N 09610W 8429 01584 0113 +172 +132 137015 015 999 999 03
060300 2106N 09611W 8432 01583 0115 +174 +124 136015 015 999 999 03
060330 2104N 09613W 8430 01586 0114 +176 +126 137016 017 999 999 03
060400 2103N 09614W 8431 01584 0116 +170 +136 138016 017 999 999 03
060430 2102N 09616W 8431 01583 0115 +170 +140 143016 016 999 999 03
060500 2100N 09617W 8430 01584 0115 +170 +136 139017 017 999 999 03
060530 2059N 09619W 8430 01585 0116 +170 +136 134017 017 999 999 03
060600 2058N 09620W 8431 01584 0116 +170 +136 132016 017 999 999 03
060630 2056N 09622W 8430 01586 0118 +170 +126 137018 019 999 999 03
060700 2055N 09623W 8432 01582 0115 +172 +118 138020 021 999 999 03
060730 2054N 09624W 8436 01578 0114 +174 +124 134020 021 999 999 03
060800 2052N 09626W 8429 01466 9980 +170 +126 132020 020 999 999 03
060830 2051N 09627W 8431 01474 9993 +166 +132 128021 021 999 999 03
060900 2050N 09629W 8431 01570 0102 +166 +136 126021 021 999 999 03
060930 2049N 09630W 8430 01578 0111 +166 +134 128021 021 999 999 03
061000 2047N 09631W 8431 01580 0113 +168 +134 128021 021 999 999 03
061030 2046N 09633W 8430 01582 0114 +166 +142 125022 024 999 999 03
061100 2045N 09634W 8432 01580 0113 +168 +144 125025 025 999 999 03
061130 2043N 09635W 8430 01581 0112 +168 +142 125026 027 999 999 03
061200 2042N 09637W 8432 01575 0106 +170 +144 123027 027 999 999 03
$$

[wxmann_91]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280620
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 17 20070928
061230 2041N 09638W 8437 01566 0102 +170 +146 122026 026 999 999 03
061300 2039N 09639W 8431 01576 0105 +170 +152 121023 024 999 999 03
061330 2038N 09639W 8428 01582 0115 +158 +158 117027 028 999 999 03
061400 2036N 09640W 8421 01588 0115 +156 +156 103024 027 999 999 03
061430 2035N 09641W 8443 01565 0104 +172 +164 121025 027 999 999 03
061500 2034N 09642W 8428 01580 0108 +166 +158 119027 028 999 999 03
061530 2032N 09643W 8430 01576 0108 +162 +162 128026 026 999 999 03
061600 2031N 09644W 8432 01572 0108 +160 +160 133026 027 999 999 03
061630 2029N 09645W 8430 01572 0104 +162 +162 129026 026 999 999 03
061700 2028N 09646W 8430 01572 0103 +164 +160 130025 027 999 999 03
061730 2027N 09647W 8431 01570 0100 +170 +140 141027 028 999 999 03
061800 2026N 09648W 8431 01569 0100 +168 +142 142030 031 999 999 03
061830 2025N 09649W 8431 01567 0100 +162 +152 146030 031 999 999 03
061900 2024N 09651W 8430 01567 0100 +160 +152 149032 032 999 999 03
061930 2023N 09652W 8430 01566 0097 +162 +156 144034 034 999 999 03
062000 2022N 09654W 8433 01562 0099 +158 +154 146035 035 999 999 03
062030 2022N 09655W 8427 01568 0097 +160 +154 141036 036 999 999 03
062100 2023N 09657W 8431 01564 0101 +154 +154 139040 041 999 999 03
062130 2025N 09657W 8431 01565 0100 +158 +154 139041 041 999 999 03
062200 2027N 09658W 8431 01566 0100 +160 +150 138039 039 999 999 03
$$

[wxmann_91]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280631
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 18 20070928
062230 2029N 09658W 8430 01567 0102 +156 +154 136039 040 999 999 03
062300 2031N 09659W 8431 01567 0105 +154 +154 137040 040 999 999 03
062330 2033N 09659W 8431 01567 0105 +154 +154 134039 040 999 999 03
062400 2035N 09700W 8432 01566 0102 +158 +154 128040 041 999 999 03
062430 2036N 09700W 8431 01567 0101 +160 +152 124038 039 999 999 03
062500 2038N 09701W 8431 01568 0100 +164 +148 123038 038 999 999 03
062530 2040N 09701W 8431 01569 0100 +166 +148 124038 039 999 999 03
062600 2042N 09702W 8432 01568 0098 +170 +142 124037 037 999 999 03
062630 2044N 09702W 8430 01572 0101 +168 +146 121036 036 999 999 03
062700 2045N 09703W 8430 01573 0101 +170 +150 120035 036 999 999 03
062730 2047N 09703W 8432 01574 0105 +170 +150 119033 034 999 999 03
062800 2049N 09704W 8430 01577 0106 +170 +148 115031 031 999 999 03
062830 2051N 09705W 8432 01574 0103 +172 +152 119032 033 999 999 03
062900 2052N 09706W 8430 01577 0107 +168 +152 119028 029 999 999 03
062930 2054N 09707W 8431 01575 0104 +170 +154 118026 027 999 999 03
063000 2056N 09707W 8430 01577 0110 +162 +154 111021 024 999 999 03
063030 2057N 09708W 8432 01575 0128 +136 +136 096022 022 999 999 03
063100 2059N 09709W 8431 01575 0125 +138 +138 092023 024 999 999 03
063130 2100N 09710W 8425 01583 0117 +152 +152 085023 023 999 999 03
063200 2102N 09710W 8436 01571 0113 +158 +158 090025 027 999 999 03
$$

I'll be back in 30 min, so if someone could take over for that time, it would be much appreciated...

[KWT]

Does look like a strong system and another landfalling hurricane, all 4 have so far made landfall this season. I'd go along with 75kts as a landfall for this system as well.

[vegastar]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280640
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 19 20070928
063230 2103N 09711W 8429 01579 0113 +158 +158 093024 026 999 999 03
063300 2105N 09712W 8431 01578 0112 +162 +160 098024 025 999 999 03
063330 2107N 09713W 8431 01579 0112 +164 +160 104025 025 999 999 03
063400 2108N 09714W 8431 01581 0113 +166 +158 101023 024 999 999 03
063430 2110N 09714W 8430 01582 0114 +164 +160 097022 023 999 999 03
063500 2111N 09715W 8431 01580 0114 +162 +160 096022 022 999 999 03
063530 2113N 09716W 8431 01580 0115 +160 +160 094022 023 999 999 03
063600 2115N 09717W 8429 01583 0116 +160 +160 081019 019 999 999 03
063630 2116N 09717W 8433 01579 0114 +164 +164 079020 021 999 999 03
063700 2118N 09718W 8430 01581 0114 +162 +162 085018 019 999 999 03
063730 2119N 09717W 8428 01585 0115 +164 +164 091016 017 999 999 03
063800 2119N 09715W 8411 01600 0111 +164 +162 087016 016 999 999 03
063830 2120N 09714W 8260 01752 0110 +152 +152 091016 016 999 999 03
063900 2120N 09712W 8070 01948 0108 +142 +142 101017 018 999 999 03
063930 2121N 09711W 7779 02256 0099 +130 +122 103018 019 999 999 03
064000 2121N 09709W 7427 02641 0094 +108 +106 092019 019 999 999 03
064030 2122N 09707W 7103 03017 0098 +086 +086 095020 021 999 999 03
064100 2122N 09706W 6828 03345 0086 +076 +068 087020 021 999 999 03
064130 2122N 09704W 6583 03659 0080 +074 +030 074021 022 999 999 03
064200 2123N 09702W 6326 03987 0081 +054 +006 077024 025 999 999 03
$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Does the recon plane have a on board pressure measuring device? Also can it take wind data from the plane its self? I think they can find the pressure from how high they are, then deduce that down to the surface. To find the wind, they can use the on board wind devices. Yes I'm talking about taking the plane over land. In which case would mean we can't use drop soundes.

[vegastar]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280650
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 20 20070928
064230 2123N 09701W 6100 04286 0081 +038 -021 081022 022 999 999 03
064300 2124N 09659W 5907 04541 0069 +024 -031 087023 024 999 999 03
064330 2124N 09657W 5735 04773 0063 +006 +002 099023 023 999 999 03
064400 2125N 09656W 5577 04995 0066 -011 -011 102022 023 999 999 05
064430 2125N 09654W 5425 05210 0243 -027 -027 103021 022 999 999 05
064500 2126N 09652W 5283 05425 0259 -037 -037 118022 023 999 999 05
064530 2126N 09650W 5149 05626 0270 -047 -047 124024 024 999 999 05
064600 2127N 09649W 5022 05825 0283 -063 -063 130025 025 999 999 03
064630 2127N 09647W 4889 06041 0302 -071 -111 117023 025 999 999 03
064700 2128N 09645W 4765 06244 0317 -079 -123 119027 028 999 999 03
064730 2129N 09643W 4653 06433 0332 -091 -125 122028 029 999 999 03
064800 2129N 09641W 4544 06620 0347 -101 -135 118028 028 999 999 03
064830 2130N 09639W 4440 06798 0358 -101 -179 112028 028 999 999 03
064900 2130N 09637W 4339 06972 0367 -115 -207 112029 030 999 999 03
064930 2131N 09636W 4235 07158 0379 -119 -265 108033 034 999 999 03
065000 2131N 09634W 4144 07328 0394 -133 -281 100034 034 999 999 03
065030 2132N 09632W 4102 07405 0399 -143 -289 100033 034 999 999 03
065100 2132N 09630W 4097 07416 0401 -145 -287 103033 033 999 999 03
065130 2133N 09628W 4099 07410 0398 -145 -285 105033 033 999 999 03
065200 2134N 09625W 4100 07410 0400 -145 -293 107033 033 999 999 03
$$

[vegastar]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 280853
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

LORENZO MADE LANDFALL BEFORE THE LAST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
ARRIVED....BUT RADAR IMAGERY FROM ALVARADO MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT THE
CENTER MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 0500 UTC...ABOUT 40 N MI
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN. THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE EYEWALL
WAS DEGRADING AS THE CENTER WAS CROSSING THE COAST...SO THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT.
GOES IMAGERY AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS MUCH WARMER
CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER THAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT A RATHER
POTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR THE
CENTER OF LORENZO TO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ. THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...POSSIBLY UP TO 15
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

SINCE LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT TURN
TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/6. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST...SLOWLY TAKING LORENZO FARTHER INLAND OVER
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE PACE OF DECLINE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE DECAY SHIPS DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 20.6N 97.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 20.9N 98.2W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

045
WTNT33 KNHC 281139
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

...WEAKENING LORENZO PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ
NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.0 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY BRINGING THE CENTER OF LORENZO
FARTHER INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS LORENZO MOVES
FARTHER INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.52 INCHES.

LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...20.7 N...98.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[PhillyWX]

Seems like the 10 AM/11AM ET advisory will be the last on Lorenzo. NHC has the system down to 40 mph already.

[Sanibel]

Slow movement WNW inland.

[PhillyWX]

Seems like the 10 AM/11AM ET advisory will be the last on Lorenzo. NHC has the system down to 40 mph already.

I was wrong. They continued the shelf life on it for another 6 hours.