Tropical Depression LORENZO: Global & hurricane Models

[HollynLA]

Latest GFS ensembles: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_gfs2.png

The ALL keep this system in the BOC/SW GOM through Sunday morning.

If that link doesn't work, then you can get to them through here = http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

through Sunday morning?? Woah, that's a LONG time to a system to just sit there. Anyone have any idea how long the high pressure will be in place that is blocking it from coming north?

[HouTXmetro]

All of the Global models continue to keep 94L offshore throughout the forecast period.

[Nimbus]

The sheared LLC does not look like it is continuing west this morning. Its almost stationary maybe consolidating a little to the ESE? When you have weak steering winds the models are bound to be useless.

[wxman57]

To give you a good idea where "Lorenzo-to-be" might track, I've created a series of 5 maps in GARP. I plotted the mean 700m-400mb wind flow (barbs and streamlines) valid 7am Fri to 7am Tue. You can see that high pressure remains quite entrenched over Texas-Louisiana and the NW Gulf. This storm is going SW, not north.

Of great interest is what happens on Monday and Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a very strong tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean. With high pressure building over the eastern U.S., it's a perfect setup for a hurricane in the NW Caribbean/Gulf early next week, and I don't mean Lorenzo.

7am Fri:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo4.gif

7am Sat:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo5.gif

7am Sun:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo6.gif

7am Mon:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo7.gif

7am Tue:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Lorenzo8.gif

[Steve]

57,

How confident are you in the GFS/ECMWF solutions? I know you get those at a much higher/tighter resolution than what most of the public websites give us. Because outside of some of the mid and upper flow, I can't find the solution yet on the GFS (does show up in the European model). btw, I don't disagree that 94L should go west or southwest, but I just can't see the source region of what you are showing. Is that something that's going to come together or maybe some of the wave that's near the Leewards?

Thanks.

Steve

[Portastorm]

You know, this is really a remarkable set-up. We have "Lorenzo-to-be" in the southwestern Gulf and its clearly ramping up. We have 97L in the NE Leewards and a large area of disturbed weather off the southeast Florida coast. And the possibility of a decaying frontal boundary between Florida and the Bahamas?

Oh yeah and high pressure building to the north ... if you can't get interested about the next 10 days in the tropics, you don't have a pulse!

[Thunder44]

461
WHXX01 KWBC 251901
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1901 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070925 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070925 1800 070926 0600 070926 1800 070927 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 94.8W 21.6N 95.6W 21.2N 96.2W 20.5N 96.7W
BAMD 21.8N 94.8W 21.3N 95.5W 20.4N 96.3W 19.7N 97.4W
BAMM 21.8N 94.8W 21.4N 95.7W 20.7N 96.6W 20.0N 97.6W
LBAR 21.8N 94.8W 21.4N 95.5W 21.3N 96.4W 21.3N 97.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070927 1800 070928 1800 070929 1800 070930 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 97.6W 18.3N 101.1W 18.9N 106.0W 20.7N 110.3W
BAMD 19.0N 98.9W 18.7N 103.1W 19.5N 106.7W 20.6N 109.3W
BAMM 19.2N 99.1W 18.6N 103.5W 19.6N 108.5W 22.0N 112.4W
LBAR 21.3N 98.5W 21.8N 101.1W 23.2N 103.8W 25.2N 105.1W
SHIP 47KTS 63KTS 71KTS 67KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 37KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 94.8W DIRCUR = 220DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 94.4W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 22.3N LONM24 = 93.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


No upgrade yet.

[cycloneye]

TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN (AL132007) 20070926 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070926 0000 070926 1200 070927 0000 070927 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 95.3W 21.7N 96.3W 21.5N 97.1W 20.9N 98.2W
BAMD 21.8N 95.3W 21.6N 96.3W 21.2N 97.5W 20.9N 99.0W
BAMM 21.8N 95.3W 21.6N 96.3W 21.3N 97.4W 20.8N 98.7W
LBAR 21.8N 95.3W 21.5N 96.3W 21.6N 97.3W 21.4N 98.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070928 0000 070929 0000 070930 0000 071001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.4N 99.5W 19.7N 103.4W 20.7N 107.6W 22.5N 111.6W
BAMD 20.8N 100.8W 21.5N 104.4W 23.1N 107.6W 25.6N 109.8W
BAMM 20.4N 100.4W 20.4N 104.4W 21.8N 108.4W 24.2N 111.7W
LBAR 21.4N 99.6W 22.1N 102.5W 23.8N 105.2W 25.9N 106.5W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 74KTS 67KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 34KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 95.3W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 22.3N LONM12 = 94.7W DIRM12 = 218DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 22.5N LONM24 = 93.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

No Lorenzo tonight.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with the nhc with this. It may have a well defined LLC but it can't yet get organized with its convection. We will have to wait for another 24 hours for it to form a strong enough wind core through organizing the convection, to get this to our tropical storm. The nhc has done a good job with this system.

[HURAKAN]

The nhc has done a good job with this system.

As always!!

It pays to be conservative!!!

[Thunder44]

579
WHXX01 KWBC 261243
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN (AL132007) 20070926 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070926 0600 070926 1800 070927 0600 070927 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.1N 95.0W 20.8N 95.8W 20.2N 96.4W 19.2N 97.6W
BAMD 21.1N 95.0W 20.2N 95.6W 19.2N 96.5W 18.3N 98.2W
BAMM 21.1N 95.0W 20.5N 95.8W 19.7N 96.7W 18.7N 98.2W
LBAR 21.1N 95.0W 20.5N 95.5W 20.3N 96.2W 20.0N 97.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070928 0600 070929 0600 070930 0600 071001 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 99.3W 17.8N 104.1W 19.5N 109.4W 22.1N 114.3W
BAMD 17.6N 100.3W 17.9N 105.1W 19.6N 108.8W 21.5N 111.1W
BAMM 17.9N 100.4W 17.8N 105.7W 19.6N 110.6W 22.4N 114.0W
LBAR 20.1N 98.9W 21.1N 102.5W 23.8N 105.5W 26.2N 106.4W
SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 68KTS 69KTS
DSHP 48KTS 60KTS 32KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.1N LONCUR = 95.0W DIRCUR = 185DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 21.9N LONM12 = 94.9W DIRM12 = 228DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 22.5N LONM24 = 94.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

there is an error with that transmission... that is the 0600 models released instead of the 1200 models

they were initialized at 30KT at 12Z

[Thunder44]

there is an error with that transmission... that is the 0600 models released instead of the 1200 models

they were initialized at 30KT at 12Z

Thanks I didn't even notice they were at 6z.

[cycloneye]

261824
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1824 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN (AL132007) 20070926 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070926 1800 070927 0600 070927 1800 070928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 94.3W 21.0N 94.7W 20.4N 95.5W 19.8N 96.8W
BAMD 21.2N 94.3W 20.7N 95.1W 20.3N 96.4W 20.3N 98.0W
BAMM 21.2N 94.3W 21.1N 94.9W 20.8N 96.0W 20.6N 97.5W
LBAR 21.2N 94.3W 20.8N 94.5W 20.7N 95.5W 20.9N 96.9W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070928 1800 070929 1800 070930 1800 071001 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 98.7W 19.5N 103.3W 20.7N 107.6W 21.5N 110.8W
BAMD 20.7N 99.9W 22.7N 102.9W 25.2N 104.2W 26.9N 104.7W
BAMM 20.7N 99.5W 22.2N 103.2W 24.4N 105.9W 26.6N 107.8W
LBAR 21.3N 98.5W 23.2N 102.3W 26.1N 104.3W 26.2N 104.6W
SHIP 56KTS 65KTS 69KTS 67KTS
DSHP 56KTS 43KTS 30KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 94.3W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 21.2N LONM12 = 95.0W DIRM12 = 152DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 21.9N LONM24 = 94.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
No Lorenzo yet.

[americanrebel]

SHIPS predicts a Cat 1 before landfall.

[americanrebel]

Where are the more current models?

[Starburst]

[superfly]

SHIPS predicts a Cat 1 before landfall.

No, it doesn't. The SHIPS model ignores land interaction, by the time it has it as a cat 1, it's already way inland.

[HURAKAN]

346
WHXX01 KWBC 271236
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1236 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN (AL132007) 20070927 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070927 1200 070928 0000 070928 1200 070929 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 95.3W 20.2N 96.7W 19.8N 98.6W 19.6N 101.0W
BAMD 20.6N 95.3W 20.3N 96.8W 20.5N 98.5W 21.2N 100.1W
BAMM 20.6N 95.3W 20.2N 96.9W 19.9N 99.0W 20.2N 101.2W
LBAR 20.6N 95.3W 20.4N 96.5W 20.6N 98.1W 21.1N 100.0W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070929 1200 070930 1200 071001 1200 071002 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.9N 103.3W 21.6N 106.5W 22.0N 109.6W 21.4N 112.1W
BAMD 22.4N 101.4W 25.4N 102.0W 25.8N 101.5W 24.4N 101.1W
BAMM 20.8N 103.3W 23.1N 105.2W 23.7N 107.1W 22.9N 108.3W
LBAR 22.3N 102.1W 26.3N 104.4W 28.2N 103.4W 27.5N 101.1W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 73KTS 74KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.6N LONCUR = 95.3W DIRCUR = 235DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 21.2N LONM12 = 94.7W DIRM12 = 223DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 94.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]