Tropical Storm JERRY- Discussion & Images

[lilbump3000]

[RL3AO]

Well overdue.

[wxman57]

Have to watch those occluded lows out in the middle of nowhere. They can be a problem. I do need one more named fully-tropical storm in September to win my lunch bet with my boss about 5 named tropical systems in September.

I think there's another one up in the Arctic circle that looks interesting, too.

[chadtm80]

[CrazyC83]

It's a matter of getting (sub)tropical characteristics, as this definitely has a closed circulation.

[Cyclone1]

5:30 TWO coming up.

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

[CrazyC83]

5:30pm TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

Hard to say what this thing is right now, since there is no way they will take a Recon flight out there...

[RL3AO]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking very very good. Convection is now over the low pressure area...With 35-40 knot winds on quickscat. FSU shows a mild warm core forming.

I say this is close to becoming a tropical storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/13.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Frontal system deattaching from the system. Convection forming over the core of the system, and a soild and closed LLC with 35-40 knot winds.

[RL3AO]

This should be Jerry at 11 IMO, but I doubt it will happen.

[bwhorton2007]

yeah looks really good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This should be Jerry at 11 IMO, but I doubt it will happen.

I agree,,,I doubt it would happen even if it lasted 3 more days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, since Ingrid just died, first true fish storm of 2007?

[Derek Ortt]

That FSU diagram does not show a warm core of the system.

All it shows that model NCEP depicts the system with a warm core

[RL3AO]

Well, since Ingrid just died, first true fish storm of 2007?

Yep. Chantal actually brought some strong squalls in Newfoundland.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That FSU diagram does not show a warm core of the system.

All it shows that model NCEP depicts the system with a warm core

Derek, since convection is forming over the core of the system. In the system appears to have deattached from the frontal system, how close do you think it is to a tropical cyclone?

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]