Tropical Storm JERRY: Global & BAM Models

[HURAKAN]

529
WHXX01 KWBC 222045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2045 UTC SAT SEP 22 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20070922 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070922 1800 070923 0600 070923 1800 070924 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.0N 45.5W 36.4N 45.9W 37.1N 46.4W 38.2N 46.2W
BAMD 36.0N 45.5W 37.2N 45.1W 38.4N 45.2W 40.2N 44.5W
BAMM 36.0N 45.5W 36.7N 45.8W 37.6N 46.3W 38.8N 46.2W
LBAR 36.0N 45.5W 36.5N 44.7W 37.2N 44.1W 38.2N 43.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070924 1800 070925 1800 070926 1800 070927 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 40.3N 43.8W 48.2N 38.1W 55.5N 35.9W 60.4N 35.0W
BAMD 43.2N 42.2W 53.1N 42.0W 60.0N 43.4W 64.2N 43.0W
BAMM 41.2N 43.6W 49.9N 40.6W 57.0N 39.9W 61.6N 39.8W
LBAR 40.0N 41.7W 47.4N 34.3W 55.6N 23.7W 56.3N 19.5W
SHIP 50KTS 71KTS 73KTS 62KTS
DSHP 50KTS 71KTS 73KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.0N LONCUR = 45.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 36.0N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 36.0N LONM24 = 45.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[Recurve]

Hmmmm. Well those tracks don't seem to invite much discussion.

I wonder how many Storm2K members we have in Greenland.

[cycloneye]

KWBC 230041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20070923 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 0000 070923 1200 070924 0000 070924 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.2N 46.3W 36.6N 46.5W 37.5N 46.3W 39.2N 44.6W
BAMD 36.2N 46.3W 37.2N 46.4W 38.5N 46.4W 40.7N 44.8W
BAMM 36.2N 46.3W 36.8N 46.8W 37.7N 47.1W 39.5N 45.5W
LBAR 36.2N 46.3W 37.0N 45.7W 38.0N 45.1W 39.9N 43.9W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 0000 070926 0000 070927 0000 070928 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 42.2N 40.7W 51.4N 35.4W 59.7N 33.3W 64.8N 32.4W
BAMD 44.6N 41.4W 54.6N 42.3W 61.6N 41.9W 65.6N 43.2W
BAMM 42.7N 41.4W 51.7N 40.6W 58.1N 40.0W 62.1N 40.4W
LBAR 42.7N 41.0W 53.1N 30.7W 56.2N 21.1W 50.5N 18.4W
SHIP 54KTS 70KTS 65KTS 61KTS
DSHP 54KTS 70KTS 65KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.2N LONCUR = 46.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 35.9N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 35.9N LONM24 = 45.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 230646
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0646 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE ELEVEN (AL112007) 20070923 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 0600 070923 1800 070924 0600 070924 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.2N 46.1W 37.1N 46.1W 38.5N 45.4W 40.8N 42.7W
BAMD 36.2N 46.1W 37.6N 45.8W 39.6N 44.9W 42.6N 42.2W
BAMM 36.2N 46.1W 37.3N 46.1W 38.9N 45.5W 41.3N 42.7W
LBAR 36.2N 46.1W 37.0N 45.4W 38.3N 44.3W 40.3N 42.4W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 0600 070926 0600 070927 0600 070928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 44.4N 39.1W 53.6N 35.0W 60.9N 31.6W 65.5N 29.0W
BAMD 47.4N 39.7W 57.3N 41.6W 63.2N 41.3W 65.6N 39.9W
BAMM 45.4N 39.2W 55.7N 38.1W 62.8N 37.3W 65.8N 36.3W
LBAR 44.0N 38.9W 56.0N 27.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 59KTS 77KTS 75KTS 64KTS
DSHP 59KTS 77KTS 75KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.2N LONCUR = 46.1W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 36.0N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 36.0N LONM24 = 45.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Subtropical Depression 11.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow, theres been many subtropical systems this year. The year of the subtropical cyclone.

[cycloneye]

610
WHXX01 KWBC 231315
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1315 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY (AL112007) 20070923 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 1200 070924 0000 070924 1200 070925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.0N 46.3W 37.0N 45.9W 38.8N 44.2W 41.6N 40.7W
BAMD 36.0N 46.3W 37.8N 45.6W 40.3N 43.8W 44.3N 40.5W
BAMM 36.0N 46.3W 37.4N 45.8W 39.3N 44.2W 42.4N 40.6W
LBAR 36.0N 46.3W 37.1N 45.3W 38.9N 43.6W 41.0N 40.6W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 54KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 1200 070926 1200 070927 1200 070928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 45.8N 37.0W 55.5N 32.5W 62.8N 27.7W 67.1N 23.6W
BAMD 50.1N 38.5W 60.8N 39.7W 66.4N 39.0W 69.1N 36.0W
BAMM 47.4N 37.2W 58.9N 34.5W 66.4N 32.1W 70.1N 27.9W
LBAR 45.7N 36.5W 56.5N 22.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS 69KTS 66KTS 59KTS
DSHP 62KTS 69KTS 66KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.0N LONCUR = 46.3W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 36.2N LONM12 = 46.1W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 35.9N LONM24 = 45.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$
Hello Jerry!

[Cyclone1]

Nothing very interesting in the models, just a tropical depression on the equator south of Africa.