Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[DanKellFla]

Karen ... R.I.P

But, Halloween is coming up. Maybe she can rise from the dead. Would that be a Zombie Hurricane? Zombicane...
Hurrabie...

[Sanibel]

Interesting that Karen's surface spiral has taken a much further west track than first predicted.

[Cryomaniac]

Bye Karen! See you in 2013.

That is unless she regenerates...

Or if the Mayans are right.

Indeed.

[Gustywind]

Interesting that Karen's surface spiral has taken a much further west track than first predicted.

Why???explain please!

[ROCK]

Interesting that Karen's surface spiral has taken a much further west track than first predicted.

Why???explain please!

why? Look at the low level flow.....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[deltadog03]

dosn't matter sanibel...there is nothing there. IF*** it came back then we can talk about it being something.

[ROCK]

dosn't matter sanibel...there is nothing there. IF*** it came back then we can talk about it being something.

True.... Chris (after being decapitated) was just a low level swirl of clouds that never made it back from the dead.

[artist]

dosn't matter sanibel...there is nothing there. IF*** it came back then we can talk about it being something.

if there is a swirl - she is still there because if she were to come back she would then be Karen again. The NHC has said some of the models do bring Karen back. It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.

[attallaman]

Shear is weakening around Karen - and she is headed for a hole. While I agree that Karen is now a wave (although I think a TS-strength wave), I wouldn't rule out regenesis...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

That's not a shear map you've posted, it's a shear tendency map. A shear tendency map only shows how shear has changed in the past 24 hours, it doesn't show wind shear. There's a huge difference. The jet core over Karen is on the order of 50 kts. Even if (big if) the shear were to drop by 10 or 20 kts, it's still 20-30 kts or more. But shear maps are notoriously bad. I don't trust them, never have. There just isn't enough upper-air data out there in the tropics much of the time. Instead of looking at shear maps I'd suggest running a 24-hr water vapor loop and observing what's actually happening. You'll see that what's left of Karen is heading right into the jet core (as did Ingrid in the same area).

Karen will survive as a tropical wave for a while. It will have as much chance of regenerating as any other wave moving into an extremely hostile environment. The energy will remain but shear will prevent regeneration of enough convection to generate inflow and redevelop the LLC. It has no memory that it was once a hurricane (will be upgraded in post-storm report). What's left of Karen will probably help generate a low center along that frontal boundary off the east U.S. Coast. May cause some rain in Bermuda. And yes, there's a slim chance that way down the road, some of the energy might spin up into a low around Bermuda or east of there as the ECMWF seems to suggest in the 7-10 day time frame. So we do still need to keep a close eye out on any storms out over the warm waters for another couple of months. I'd watch the Gulf for possible subtropical development in a few days, though.

Be glad Karen's gone.

Something might develop in the GOM in a few days? You mentioned subtropical; that would be nothing like a TD but more likely just a rain maker?

[Gustywind]

Interesting that Karen's surface spiral has taken a much further west track than first predicted.

Why???explain please!

why? Look at the low level flow.....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Tkanks Roc

[HurricaneRobert]

This thread should stay here like an Invest.

[Chacor]

ATCF doesn't appear to be updating, so this isn't an invest right now.

[CrazyC83]

ATCF doesn't appear to be updating, so this isn't an invest right now.

We should close this thread and treat it like an "area of interest" then...

[southerngale]

ATCF doesn't appear to be updating, so this isn't an invest right now.

We should close this thread and treat it like an "area of interest" then...

On the previous page...

How do we handle the ex-Karen wave: continue this thread, start a new thread here or a new threat at "Talkin' Tropics"?

Just keep discussing here please

As long as the thread is here, you can talk about it if you want to.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 300231
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MELISSA LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF KAREN...PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE
WWWW

[Kerry04]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANTS OF KAREN...PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOM

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Winds could become favorable according to NHC
Karen might regenerate folks!!!!

[HURAKAN]

Still there

[Gustywind]

Still there

Absolutely... and east of the Leewards
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/satellite/TAG/Tagant.jpg

[Gustywind]

THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF KAREN IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N53W AND CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 50W-55W"
Maybe a wet weather scenario with a round of strong showers and...
thunderstorms for the Leewards Islands in the next 24-48H as Huc mentionned it in one of his last reply . This a possible solution because...the winds will be more favorable given to the NHC in their TWO...
"THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THEY COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH".
We will see what happens but the probability of showers and thunderstorms is much higher today than
yesterday...hope nothing more that water for us in the Leewards !