Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Brent]

WHXX01 KWBC 230731
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0731 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070923 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 0600 070923 1800 070924 0600 070924 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 6.2N 26.1W 6.8N 28.1W 7.7N 30.6W 8.9N 33.4W
BAMD 6.2N 26.1W 6.6N 28.2W 7.3N 30.3W 8.2N 32.6W
BAMM 6.2N 26.1W 7.0N 28.3W 7.9N 30.8W 8.9N 33.4W
LBAR 6.2N 26.1W 6.8N 28.9W 7.8N 32.0W 9.0N 35.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 0600 070926 0600 070927 0600 070928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 36.4W 12.0N 42.7W 14.5N 49.6W 17.5N 55.3W
BAMD 9.0N 34.8W 10.1N 39.6W 11.7N 44.1W 13.9N 47.2W
BAMM 9.7N 36.0W 10.9N 41.5W 12.4N 46.8W 14.8N 50.6W
LBAR 10.1N 38.4W 12.0N 44.1W 14.1N 48.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 58KTS 76KTS 84KTS 83KTS
DSHP 58KTS 76KTS 84KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 6.2N LONCUR = 26.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 6.2N LONM12 = 23.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 6.2N LONM24 = 19.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

934
WHXX01 KWBC 230731
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0731 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070923 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 0600 070923 1800 070924 0600 070924 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 6.2N 26.1W 6.8N 28.1W 7.7N 30.6W 8.9N 33.4W
BAMD 6.2N 26.1W 6.6N 28.2W 7.3N 30.3W 8.2N 32.6W
BAMM 6.2N 26.1W 7.0N 28.3W 7.9N 30.8W 8.9N 33.4W
LBAR 6.2N 26.1W 6.8N 28.9W 7.8N 32.0W 9.0N 35.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 0600 070926 0600 070927 0600 070928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 36.4W 12.0N 42.7W 14.5N 49.6W 17.5N 55.3W
BAMD 9.0N 34.8W 10.1N 39.6W 11.7N 44.1W 13.9N 47.2W
BAMM 9.7N 36.0W 10.9N 41.5W 12.4N 46.8W 14.8N 50.6W
LBAR 10.1N 38.4W 12.0N 44.1W 14.1N 48.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 58KTS 76KTS 84KTS 83KTS
DSHP 58KTS 76KTS 84KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 6.2N LONCUR = 26.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 6.2N LONM12 = 23.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 6.2N LONM24 = 19.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Brent]

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

This isn't on NRL yet, but you can see the system here:

http://en.allmetsat.com/images/msg_dundee_ir_108.php

Low-latitude wave south of the Cape Verde Islands. Here's a cropped image, in case you don't have a password with Dundee University's satellite receiving station:

[KWT]

Not really al lthat surprising that they've given this wave 96L, it looks really good right now in terms of its convection and as long a sit can keep this sort of convection for the next 18-24hrs it woulsn't be at all surprising to see we will have a player on our hands. I think the track may be a little harder to forecast then normal for the time of year simply because of how far south the system is at. Had it been at 12-14N we could say that it'd be very likely a fish but as its so deep you never know, saying that there is a weakness around 72-96hrs that opens up in the central Atlantic which as the 0z ECM shows would take any system NNW for a while.

[Coredesat]

Now on NRL, though there is an old image (from 0245Z) - I won't post it. The images posted here are all newer.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

452
ABNT20 KNHC 230929
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME

[caneman]

unbelievable how conditions have change like this. This is like peak of season but it is coming 2 weeks late. LA Nina perhaps?. Season gonna stay open longer? We'll see.

[HURAKAN]

23/0600 UTC 6.0N 25.8W T1.0/1.0 96L

First Dvorak classification.

[punkyg]

Man i was so right with the 3am being tagged as an invest
anyways now its an invest when do you think it will be a TD maybe on monday

[cycloneye]

Go to poll in Talking Tropics forum and vote for the invest that will be TD first.

[cycloneye]

554
WHXX04 KWBC 231120
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 6.3 26.4 270./14.9
6 6.5 26.4 351./ 1.9
12 7.5 26.8 338./11.2
18 8.4 28.1 304./16.0
24 8.6 29.0 285./ 8.6
30 9.4 30.9 290./20.5
36 10.1 32.0 306./12.7
42 10.6 33.7 284./18.1
48 10.9 35.8 279./20.7
54 11.7 38.0 288./23.1
60 12.3 39.9 289./19.1
66 13.1 41.9 292./21.1
72 13.4 43.8 279./18.9
78 13.8 45.8 283./19.6
84 14.5 47.8 290./20.3
90 14.9 49.5 281./16.9
96 15.2 51.2 282./17.4
102 15.7 52.6 287./14.2
108 16.1 54.0 287./13.5
114 16.1 55.3 270./13.1
120 16.4 56.6 283./12.2
126 16.3 57.3 262./ 6.6


The first GFDL plots are these from the 6z run.They track towards the Leewards.

[Gustywind]

554
WHXX04 KWBC 231120
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 6.3 26.4 270./14.9
6 6.5 26.4 351./ 1.9
12 7.5 26.8 338./11.2
18 8.4 28.1 304./16.0
24 8.6 29.0 285./ 8.6
30 9.4 30.9 290./20.5
36 10.1 32.0 306./12.7
42 10.6 33.7 284./18.1
48 10.9 35.8 279./20.7
54 11.7 38.0 288./23.1
60 12.3 39.9 289./19.1
66 13.1 41.9 292./21.1
72 13.4 43.8 279./18.9
78 13.8 45.8 283./19.6
84 14.5 47.8 290./20.3
90 14.9 49.5 281./16.9
96 15.2 51.2 282./17.4
102 15.7 52.6 287./14.2
108 16.1 54.0 287./13.5
114 16.1 55.3 270./13.1
120 16.4 56.6 283./12.2
126 16.3 57.3 262./ 6.6


The first GFDL plots are these from the 6z run.They track towards the Leewards.

Yeah Cycloneye no fish for the moment , and closely near Guadeloupe and moving west in the lastest 24h??!!

[punkyg]

Go to poll in Talking Tropics forum and vote for the invest that will be TD first.

I voted for 96L cause it looks like a TD, but it behaves like a TS i say TS Karen soon if Jerry is taken.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 231249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070923 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 1200 070924 0000 070924 1200 070925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 6.4N 28.0W 7.1N 29.9W 8.0N 32.3W 8.9N 34.7W
BAMD 6.4N 28.0W 6.9N 30.0W 7.6N 32.2W 8.6N 34.2W
BAMM 6.4N 28.0W 7.2N 30.2W 8.1N 32.7W 9.1N 35.1W
LBAR 6.4N 28.0W 7.2N 30.9W 8.1N 34.2W 9.3N 37.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 1200 070926 1200 070927 1200 070928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 37.4W 11.3N 42.7W 13.7N 48.5W 16.6N 53.2W
BAMD 9.2N 36.2W 10.4N 40.4W 12.0N 44.3W 14.1N 47.2W
BAMM 9.7N 37.6W 10.7N 42.7W 12.4N 47.6W 15.2N 50.5W
LBAR 10.3N 40.5W 12.0N 46.0W 14.7N 49.9W 17.5N 54.8W
SHIP 59KTS 75KTS 83KTS 83KTS
DSHP 59KTS 75KTS 83KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 6.4N LONCUR = 28.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 6.2N LONM12 = 24.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 6.0N LONM24 = 19.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

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