INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[WindRunner]

San Juan Radar Long range

Clearly shows rotation

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes

I barely see rain, much less rotation.

And, as to your earlier image of the MeteoFrance radar, I don't see how that's better than its ever looked . . . again, you can barely see anything. I'd like to know what you are looking at that makes you say these things . . .

[gerrit]

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-261000-
615 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METRO
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STREAMING OFF EL YUNQUE.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THREE TO FIVE
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THIS
RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RIVER AND FLASH
FLOODING...AS WELL AS INDUCE MUDSLIDES ACROSS AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

[jlauderdal]

Nam 12Z +84

Florida does not wanna see this pattern evolve


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

the nam looks like it has completely overcooked the system

[Gustywind]

Ooops!


97L is reconvecting in shear. I take back what I posted about poofing for now. This one could beat my 2007 theory. Humbly watching it for now.

Yep mother nature as always nasty scenarios in store Sanibel we should continue to be humble with mother anything can , maybe this twave heard you when you were saying that lool

[Fego]

Is the shear weakening? look at the yellow marked area... seems to me that is less concentrated or strong.

-------------

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM TWD

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 17N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N63.5W. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N
TO 17N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N
TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BRITISH AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

25/1745 UTC 17.1N 63.0W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Its not dead Jim.

[JonathanBelles]

25/1745 UTC 17.1N 63.0W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Its not dead Jim.

LOL. a pure S2K quote. when do you expect rain there in PR?

[cycloneye]

25/1745 UTC 17.1N 63.0W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Its not dead Jim.

LOL. a pure S2K quote. when do you expect rain there in PR?

From late tonight thru early thursday,we expect a big rain event.Not sure how many inches will fall,but between 1-3 inches,3-5 in the mountains is what I see from this.

[Sanibel]

I think the center is in the upper part of the convection - which makes me say "show me you won't poof" rather than "this is going to form".

This kind of reminds me of Ingrid where the deep convection moved away from the surface center in sheared flaring (but not as bad).

[Wx_Warrior]

Is this the invest that EURO is picking up on for next week? or am I totally off...

[cycloneye]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 252047
RWSPR

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2007

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...WHILE MOST OF WESTERN HALF OBSERVED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NWS
DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED MAINLY THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
UTUADO...LARES AND SAN SEBASTIAN. MAXIMUM ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BY DOPPLER RADAR RANGED FROM THREE TO FOUR INCHES WITHIN THE PAST
THREE HOURS. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DIRECTOR FROM UTUADO REPORTED 3.5
INCHES MEASURED IN CENTRAL UTUADO. WINDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE AT 5 TO
10 MPH.

LESS INTENSE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. BUT...BY MIDNIGHT...CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN PUERTO RICO BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE.

THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND
WESTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS NEARBY RIVERS AND FLOODED
AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY.

ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...EXPECT WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SQUALLY WEATHER AND GUSTS WINDS AS WELL
AS CHOPPY SEAS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE PASS
BY THE AREA.

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like Mike Watkins will make his BMG concert this weekend. Thanks 97L for not ruining Mike's plans. He appreciates that a lot.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 252129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST.
CROIX IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

[Evil Jeremy]

Gone from NRL!

[americanrebel]

I think that is for just now, in a day or two it will be back.

[cycloneye]

This is what we can expect here from this Wave/Low.

PNSSJU

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2007

...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXPECTED TO
BRING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF ST
CROIX EARLY THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. 24 HOURS RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO
THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROPICAL
WAVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THREE TO FIVE INCHES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS INTERIOR OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO.
THESE RAIN AMOUNTS MAY VERY WELL LEAD TO LOCALIZED RIVER AND FLASH
FLOODING... AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES ACROSS AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE...AND WAS
APPROACHING ST CROIX AND THE WATERS OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

IN RECENT DAYS...WEST AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO HAVE
RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE INCREASED RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY MAY
LEAD TO RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 252355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS NEAR 17N63W ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 21N. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
NEAR THE LOW CENTER THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 58W-63W.

[cycloneye]

Long Range Radar from the San Juan NWS.



The rain event is about to start in Puerto Rico.A weak rotation is noted south of ST Croix.

[Blown Away]

Now that 97L has been removed from the NRL, does that mean the Invest status is gone?