INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico: Global & BAM Models

[HURAKAN]

873
WHXX01 KWBC 230807
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0807 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070923 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 0600 070923 1800 070924 0600 070924 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 53.3W 12.2N 55.6W 13.3N 58.0W 14.8N 60.0W
BAMD 11.3N 53.3W 12.0N 55.1W 12.7N 56.9W 13.5N 58.6W
BAMM 11.3N 53.3W 11.9N 55.5W 12.6N 57.6W 13.7N 59.6W
LBAR 11.3N 53.3W 12.0N 54.8W 12.8N 56.6W 14.1N 58.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 0600 070926 0600 070927 0600 070928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 61.9W 18.3N 65.1W 19.4N 69.5W 20.3N 74.0W
BAMD 14.3N 60.4W 15.4N 64.0W 15.6N 67.6W 15.7N 71.6W
BAMM 14.9N 61.6W 16.6N 65.2W 17.3N 69.3W 18.0N 74.0W
LBAR 15.2N 60.5W 16.9N 64.3W 17.6N 68.9W 17.2N 73.2W
SHIP 46KTS 58KTS 65KTS 70KTS
DSHP 46KTS 58KTS 65KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 51.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 49.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[TampaFl]

From SFWMD:

[cycloneye]

[b707
WHXX01 KWBC 231245
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070923 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 1200 070924 0000 070924 1200 070925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 55.0W 12.2N 57.3W 13.3N 59.8W 14.6N 62.0W
BAMD 11.4N 55.0W 12.1N 56.9W 12.7N 58.7W 13.6N 60.6W
BAMM 11.4N 55.0W 12.0N 57.3W 12.8N 59.6W 13.9N 61.8W
LBAR 11.4N 55.0W 12.1N 56.9W 13.1N 58.8W 14.3N 60.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 1200 070926 1200 070927 1200 070928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 64.3W 17.8N 68.5W 18.8N 72.9W 19.5N 77.4W
BAMD 14.3N 62.5W 15.5N 66.3W 16.1N 69.9W 16.7N 73.4W
BAMM 15.2N 64.0W 16.9N 68.2W 17.7N 72.8W 18.5N 77.5W
LBAR 15.4N 62.9W 16.6N 67.0W 17.1N 71.4W 17.3N 75.0W
SHIP 47KTS 59KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 47KTS 59KTS 66KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.4N LONCUR = 55.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 52.4W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 50.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
][/b]

[canegrl04]

Current models seem to indicate this is a Central Am. system again.But this is fall,now.,when things tend to get pulled North

[ROCK]

Current models seem to indicate this is a Central Am. system again.But this is fall,now.,when things tend to get pulled North

SO right Canegrl- If this goes into CA, I will eat my hat.... I am concerned for the islands right now.

[cycloneye]

945
WHXX04 KWBC 231723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.9 55.0 280./11.1
6 11.8 55.8 316./12.0
12 11.8 57.8 271./19.5
18 12.1 58.2 310./ 4.6
24 12.5 59.7 286./15.1
30 13.5 60.3 326./11.4
36 14.3 61.4 309./12.7
42 14.3 62.2 267./ 7.8
48 14.9 62.8 315./ 9.1
54 15.6 62.8 359./ 6.7
60 16.8 63.5 331./13.6
66 17.5 64.0 326./ 8.8
72 18.0 64.9 297./ 9.4
78 18.1 65.6 281./ 7.0
84 18.2 66.1 276./ 5.2
90 18.3 67.0 277./ 8.1
96 18.3 67.8 271./ 7.5
102 18.6 68.4 297./ 7.1
108 18.9 68.9 300./ 5.3
114 19.1 69.6 286./ 6.4
120 19.5 70.1 303./ 6.4
126 19.8 70.9 294./ 8.1

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

945
WHXX04 KWBC 231723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.9 55.0 280./11.1
6 11.8 55.8 316./12.0
12 11.8 57.8 271./19.5
18 12.1 58.2 310./ 4.6
24 12.5 59.7 286./15.1
30 13.5 60.3 326./11.4
36 14.3 61.4 309./12.7
42 14.3 62.2 267./ 7.8
48 14.9 62.8 315./ 9.1
54 15.6 62.8 359./ 6.7
60 16.8 63.5 331./13.6
66 17.5 64.0 326./ 8.8
72 18.0 64.9 297./ 9.4
78 18.1 65.6 281./ 7.0
84 18.2 66.1 276./ 5.2
90 18.3 67.0 277./ 8.1
96 18.3 67.8 271./ 7.5
102 18.6 68.4 297./ 7.1
108 18.9 68.9 300./ 5.3
114 19.1 69.6 286./ 6.4
120 19.5 70.1 303./ 6.4
126 19.8 70.9 294./ 8.1

Looks like it wants to bring it to our houses..

[cycloneye]

Yeah,I didnt want to say it but that is the track.

[Derek Ortt]

also looks to bury itself over Hispaniola

[canegrl04]

Current models seem to indicate this is a Central Am. system again.But this is fall,now.,when things tend to get pulled North

SO right Canegrl- If this goes into CA, I will eat my hat.... I am concerned for the islands right now.

You are so right! The Islands should be the main point of worry right now

[cycloneye]

HurricaneMasterPR,look at this intensity loop of the 12z GFDL.If GFDL is right,we will have over us a strong tropical storm.

12z GFDL Intensity Animation

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

HurricaneMasterPR,look at this intensity loop of the 12z GFDL.If GFDL is right,we will have over us a strong tropical storm.

12z GFDL Intensity Animation

Yes, a not only that... If that forecast pans out we could be dealing with a strong tropical storm/cat 1 hurricane as early as this Wednesday/early Thursday...

[KWT]

Also note that it opens up to a wave again before becoming a TS again, that could well be a result of the shear that Derek was talking about?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1841 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070923 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 1800 070924 0600 070924 1800 070925 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 56.4W 11.7N 58.7W 12.9N 61.1W 14.2N 63.3W
BAMD 10.9N 56.4W 11.4N 58.3W 12.2N 60.3W 13.0N 62.4W
BAMM 10.9N 56.4W 11.4N 58.7W 12.3N 61.1W 13.5N 63.5W
LBAR 10.9N 56.4W 11.3N 58.6W 12.1N 60.9W 13.2N 63.4W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 1800 070926 1800 070927 1800 070928 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 65.5W 17.0N 69.9W 17.8N 74.7W 18.3N 79.6W
BAMD 13.7N 64.5W 14.6N 68.6W 15.3N 72.8W 16.2N 77.1W
BAMM 14.8N 65.7W 16.1N 70.4W 16.8N 75.9W 17.9N 81.3W
LBAR 14.2N 65.8W 15.1N 70.7W 16.7N 75.9W 18.7N 79.4W
SHIP 53KTS 65KTS 73KTS 75KTS
DSHP 53KTS 65KTS 73KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 56.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 53.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 51.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

Image not working.

[JonathanBelles]

Image not working.

I see it.

[cycloneye]

I see it clearly with all the tracks of the models.

[KWT]

The image is working for me...by the way where it says 86kts on the strength line, does that not mean mph, as 75kts equals 86mph???

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like a caribbean tracker. The big question is..when will this turn? The GFS isn't showing any big fronts anytime soon, so a GOM threat seems very possible. Climatology would suggest more of a threat to the eastern GOM once it got there, but as mets have been saying..the current pattern is much more similar to late August/early September and is not following climatology. Therefore, I could see a potential risk to areas further west also being possible with 97L. Time will tell. One thing is for sure though, this should be a very interesting system to watch!