INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico: Global & BAM Models

[Vortex]

H+42

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

[Vortex]

H+66
nearing PR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[Vortex]

H+72

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[cycloneye]

X01 KWBC 240729
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0729 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070924 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070924 0600 070924 1800 070925 0600 070925 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 58.5W 13.3N 60.9W 14.8N 63.0W 16.4N 65.0W
BAMD 12.1N 58.5W 12.8N 60.3W 13.6N 62.3W 14.4N 64.4W
BAMM 12.1N 58.5W 12.8N 60.7W 13.9N 63.2W 15.1N 65.5W
LBAR 12.1N 58.5W 13.0N 60.4W 14.4N 62.4W 15.6N 64.4W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070926 0600 070927 0600 070928 0600 070929 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 67.1W 18.6N 71.8W 19.9N 76.4W 20.3N 79.5W
BAMD 15.0N 66.4W 16.0N 70.5W 17.3N 74.5W 18.2N 77.6W
BAMM 16.0N 67.6W 17.0N 72.1W 18.3N 76.6W 19.1N 80.0W
LBAR 16.5N 66.5W 17.9N 71.1W 20.3N 75.3W 23.7N 76.7W
SHIP 49KTS 62KTS 71KTS 77KTS
DSHP 49KTS 62KTS 71KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 58.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 56.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 53.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Interesting the change of tracks to more Caribbean bound,than more northward thru Puerto Rico.And SHIP,has it as a hurricane late in the run.

[cycloneye]

254
WHXX04 KWBC 241123
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 24

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.1 58.5 285./12.0
6 12.6 59.8 288./12.5
12 13.1 60.4 308./ 8.3
18 13.9 61.4 309./13.0
24 14.4 62.1 308./ 7.7
30 15.1 63.3 299./13.7
36 15.7 64.1 310./10.0
42 16.3 64.8 308./ 9.2
48 16.6 65.8 288./ 9.6
54 17.0 67.0 286./12.2
60 17.3 67.8 295./ 8.2
66 17.5 68.5 282./ 7.5
72 17.7 69.2 292./ 6.6
78 18.1 69.8 300./ 6.5
84 18.5 70.4 301./ 7.6
90 19.2 71.2 313./10.2
96 19.8 71.6 324./ 7.3
102 20.2 72.0 313./ 5.4
108 20.6 72.2 338./ 4.9
114 21.2 72.3 351./ 5.8
120 21.5 72.8 303./ 5.2
126 21.8 73.0 314./ 3.3

The 6z GFDL,tracks thru the middle of Hispañola and we know what that means.

[ronjon]

06Z GFDL makes 97L a hurricane twice - prior to Hispanola and in the SE Bahamas. Likely that Hispanola would seriously weaken it but who knows if it will ride across it or skim it at this point. Overall synoptic set up would favor a continued path for S FL, FL straits, or even Cuba after entering the SE Bahamas. A large high pressure will migrate off the east coast in 5-6 days which would turn the system more W or W-NW for several days afterward. Depends on how much latitude it gains prior to the western turn as to who it may ultimately affect. Assuming it develops of course.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007092406-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 241252
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1252 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070924 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070924 1200 070925 0000 070925 1200 070926 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 58.9W 13.6N 61.3W 14.9N 63.8W 16.1N 66.0W
BAMD 12.4N 58.9W 13.3N 60.8W 14.1N 62.9W 14.8N 64.9W
BAMM 12.4N 58.9W 13.4N 61.2W 14.6N 63.6W 15.7N 65.8W
LBAR 12.4N 58.9W 13.6N 60.6W 14.8N 62.6W 15.6N 64.7W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070926 1200 070927 1200 070928 1200 070929 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 68.3W 17.9N 73.2W 19.1N 77.5W 19.4N 80.9W
BAMD 15.2N 67.1W 16.0N 71.5W 17.1N 75.0W 17.4N 77.5W
BAMM 16.3N 68.2W 17.3N 73.0W 18.5N 76.8W 18.9N 79.6W
LBAR 15.9N 67.1W 16.8N 72.8W 17.7N 76.5W 20.4N 79.1W
SHIP 44KTS 58KTS 68KTS 75KTS
DSHP 44KTS 58KTS 68KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 58.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 57.5W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 55.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[chadtm80]

[gatorcane]

these last model runs are signficant for those in Southern Florida. The CMC and NOGAPS have come closer to the consistent GFDL solution of bringing 97L as a hurricane into the SE Bahamas

The GFS brings it just south of Cuba and turns it northward towards Southern Florida...

[HURAKAN]

194
WHXX01 KWBC 241906
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1906 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070924 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070924 1800 070925 0600 070925 1800 070926 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 60.6W 14.9N 62.6W 16.3N 64.7W 17.1N 66.7W
BAMD 13.8N 60.6W 14.7N 62.4W 15.5N 64.1W 16.0N 66.0W
BAMM 13.8N 60.6W 14.8N 62.7W 16.0N 64.7W 16.8N 66.8W
LBAR 13.8N 60.6W 15.1N 62.3W 16.2N 64.2W 17.2N 66.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070926 1800 070927 1800 070928 1800 070929 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 68.9W 18.6N 74.3W 19.6N 78.6W 19.7N 81.7W
BAMD 16.4N 68.0W 17.1N 72.0W 18.1N 75.2W 18.3N 77.2W
BAMM 17.2N 69.1W 18.3N 74.0W 19.6N 77.6W 19.9N 79.6W
LBAR 17.9N 68.6W 19.6N 73.1W 22.2N 76.2W 24.8N 76.5W
SHIP 46KTS 56KTS 64KTS 70KTS
DSHP 46KTS 49KTS 62KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 58.3W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 56.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 250151
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0151 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070925 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070925 0000 070925 1200 070926 0000 070926 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 60.3W 16.3N 62.0W 17.3N 63.8W 18.1N 65.9W
BAMD 15.0N 60.3W 15.9N 61.8W 16.5N 63.3W 16.6N 65.1W
BAMM 15.0N 60.3W 16.1N 62.1W 17.1N 63.8W 17.7N 65.8W
LBAR 15.0N 60.3W 16.4N 61.6W 17.3N 63.2W 17.8N 65.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070927 0000 070928 0000 070929 0000 070930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 68.2W 20.3N 73.1W 21.9N 76.5W 22.7N 78.9W
BAMD 16.6N 67.1W 16.9N 71.2W 17.7N 74.8W 17.9N 77.2W
BAMM 18.1N 67.9W 19.4N 72.1W 20.7N 75.3W 21.6N 77.2W
LBAR 18.0N 67.4W 18.9N 72.9W 20.1N 76.5W 22.1N 77.6W
SHIP 41KTS 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS
DSHP 41KTS 30KTS 36KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 60.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 58.9W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 57.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

INVEST 97L is back!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

WHXX01 KWBC 250151
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0151 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070925 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070925 0000 070925 1200 070926 0000 070926 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 60.3W 16.3N 62.0W 17.3N 63.8W 18.1N 65.9W
BAMD 15.0N 60.3W 15.9N 61.8W 16.5N 63.3W 16.6N 65.1W
BAMM 15.0N 60.3W 16.1N 62.1W 17.1N 63.8W 17.7N 65.8W
LBAR 15.0N 60.3W 16.4N 61.6W 17.3N 63.2W 17.8N 65.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070927 0000 070928 0000 070929 0000 070930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 68.2W 20.3N 73.1W 21.9N 76.5W 22.7N 78.9W
BAMD 16.6N 67.1W 16.9N 71.2W 17.7N 74.8W 17.9N 77.2W
BAMM 18.1N 67.9W 19.4N 72.1W 20.7N 75.3W 21.6N 77.2W
LBAR 18.0N 67.4W 18.9N 72.9W 20.1N 76.5W 22.1N 77.6W
SHIP 41KTS 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS
DSHP 41KTS 30KTS 36KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 60.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 58.9W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 57.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

INVEST 97L is back!

It appears it will move over us on Wednesday Cycloneye..

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 250151
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0151 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070925 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070925 0000 070925 1200 070926 0000 070926 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 60.3W 16.3N 62.0W 17.3N 63.8W 18.1N 65.9W
BAMD 15.0N 60.3W 15.9N 61.8W 16.5N 63.3W 16.6N 65.1W
BAMM 15.0N 60.3W 16.1N 62.1W 17.1N 63.8W 17.7N 65.8W
LBAR 15.0N 60.3W 16.4N 61.6W 17.3N 63.2W 17.8N 65.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070927 0000 070928 0000 070929 0000 070930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 68.2W 20.3N 73.1W 21.9N 76.5W 22.7N 78.9W
BAMD 16.6N 67.1W 16.9N 71.2W 17.7N 74.8W 17.9N 77.2W
BAMM 18.1N 67.9W 19.4N 72.1W 20.7N 75.3W 21.6N 77.2W
LBAR 18.0N 67.4W 18.9N 72.9W 20.1N 76.5W 22.1N 77.6W
SHIP 41KTS 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS
DSHP 41KTS 30KTS 36KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 60.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 58.9W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 57.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

INVEST 97L is back!

It appears it will move over us on Wednesday Cycloneye..

It looks that way.But as I said earlier,the winds are not going to be a big problem but the rain that may bring that can cause floodings and mudslides.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT OFFICIAL ALERT ALERT****

UPDATED due to new DATA;

temporary weakness pulls this north of the the islands and over
the islands, then the ridge builds strong and pushes this
into South Florida.

TRopical depression over the islands of the caribbean,
then reemerges and strengthens to a category 1 hurricane
hitting south florida as a category 1 in about 5-6 days.
We got an anticyclone moving with this and shear moves away
and then the waters are very hot.

['CaneFreak]

***NOT OFFICIAL ALERT ALERT****

a ridge builds in pushing it WNW then a trough curves it N-NW leading it
to south florida after it floods the caribbean islands...
hope and pray that nobody gets hurt.


I think a TS into the islands and a Cat 1 in SoFLa
with dangerous flooding possible.

I hope you are prepared for a bashing. FIRST OF ALL, this thing is no where even near TD status and as I said above I expect development probabilities are going even further down than what I posted above. I mean, lets face it. I am not trying to offend you AT ALL. Dont take this the wrong way, but if you wake up tomorrow and this thing is nothing but a few cumulus clouds, I dont want you to be upset. I know you like to make these kinds of forecasts but lets face it; this is not likely from any of the data I am looking at as far as the shear is concerned. The shear is what is going to tear this system to shreds. This is the same thing that happened with Ingrid and some of the same people said the same things with Ingrid. Do you folks ever learn? Oh, btw...this is in the wrong thread....LOL..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Still strongly think this is a category 1 hurricane in the 3-4 days-
I don't see that shear happening- Ingrid was in a different location.

I can make predictions if I want to. In fact, I love to!!!

I've learned a lot.

As for bashings, they are highly entertaining. Almost as funny
as the Daily Show. I learn the facts from them and get a healthy
laugh as well.

And if this dies, I won't be upset, perhaps a bit fascinated by
the subtleties of nature, but nature rarely upsets me, unless
it somehow sent a cat 5 to me, now that would put me on bad
terms with nature. But a cat 3 hasn't happened in 86 years,
so I've got little to fear from nature.

[wxmann_91]

Still strongly think this is a category 1 hurricane in the 3-4 days-
I don't see that shear happening- Ingrid was in a different location.

I can make predictions if I want to. In fact, I love to!!!

I've learned a lot.

As for bashings, they are highly entertaining. Almost as funny
as the Daily Show. I learn the facts from them and get a healthy
laugh as well.

Just a question - when you make predictions, do you look at model outputs, shear maps, sat loops, etc, or do you just go with your instinct? I'm curious, really.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Still strongly think this is a category 1 hurricane in the 3-4 days-
I don't see that shear happening- Ingrid was in a different location.

I can make predictions if I want to. In fact, I love to!!!

I've learned a lot.

As for bashings, they are highly entertaining. Almost as funny
as the Daily Show. I learn the facts from them and get a healthy
laugh as well.

Just a question - when you make predictions, do you look at model outputs, shear maps, sat loops, etc, or do you just go with your instinct? I'm curious, really.

I use science, models, shear charts, TCHP charts, SAT Loops, IR Loops, Globals, etc.
Globals are my good ol homies.
TCHP color my PC with semblances of beauty.
SAT loops convey to my soul the kinematics of this earth.
IR Loops add a flavor to kinematic revolution.



Model Outputs are used for track forecasts, especially globals. I love them in 3D-
who doesn't?

Shear maps, I look at those really good. Yes shear could shred this temporarily,
but that would be temporary, we all know how favorable it gets on the future
track especially with a ULL progged per melbourne nws to near fl and perhaps
IMO ventilate the future 97L.

Sat Loops and IR loops run on my computer with great frequency.

I don't use any instinct at all, because my instinct is not scientific.

If I used Instinct, I would say "My silly unscientific gut says..." like that.

Could I be wrong? Yes. Maybe that ULL will rip it up instead of ventilate it.

And I said cat 1, if I had said cat 5 then I could see something out
of bounds with reason.

The bahamas heat content is high, as it gave birth to two
wild beasts- namely katrina and rita.


Hurricanes are a thrilling exercise in science, a passionate application of my desire
to be one with nature and to come into harmony- that's the philosophy, but I don't
let that influence my scientific reasonings.

I don't plan to pursue a professional career in this, I just forecast for fun
but I do use scientific information and not secret weird crystal balls
that Ms. Cleo was an avid devotee of.

Now as an amateur, my forecasts will sound ridiculous to many- and I will read what others
say and learn and be happy, and then apply some of that learning if my
brain decides to crank its neurons in good order.