SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
0900 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 46.1W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 46.1W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 46.1W
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.7N 46.1W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.7N 45.3W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 42.5N 42.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 46.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Tropical Storm JERRY = Last Advisory
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Tropical Storm JERRY = Last Advisory
Last edited by Brent on Sun Sep 23, 2007 9:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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840
WTNT31 KNHC 230848
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2007
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS FAR FROM LAND IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT
1060 MILES...1705 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE AZORES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE DEPRESSION GAINS MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...36.2 N...46.1 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT31 KNHC 230848
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2007
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS FAR FROM LAND IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT
1060 MILES...1705 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE AZORES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE DEPRESSION GAINS MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...36.2 N...46.1 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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789
WTNT41 KNHC 230900
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SOME PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS
OR SO. THAT CONVECTION HAD INITIALLY BEEN LIMITED TO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...BUT HAS BEEN STEADILY WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVERNIGHT. VERY RECENTLY THE CONVECTION HAS
ALSO INCREASED TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHERE SOME
LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING SIGNATURES HAVE EVEN BEEN DETECTED. TAFB
PROVIDED A TROPICAL DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0...WHILE THE SAB
CLASSIFICATION WAS SUBTROPICAL 2.5. THE CYCLONE FELL IN THE GAP
BETWEEN QUIKSCAT PASSES ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...AND DATA FROM A NEW
OVERPASS HAS NOT YET ARRIVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30
KT. THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED SUBTROPICAL FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT IT
IS STILL WELL-INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND SINCE THE
CONVECTION IS STILL A BIT DISTANT FROM THE CENTER. THE RECENT
TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY GAINING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND SHOULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...TRAPPED WITHIN A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW.
ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL CHANGE
SOON...HOWEVER...AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD
OVER ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT LARGER SYSTEM
WILL PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES ON MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE ABSORBED IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING OVER SSTS NEAR 24 CELSIUS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH 40 KT BEFORE TRAVERSING COOLER
WATERS AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 36.2N 46.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 36.7N 46.1W 35 KT...TROPICAL
24HR VT 24/0600Z 38.7N 45.3W 40 KT...TROPICAL
36HR VT 24/1800Z 42.5N 42.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT41 KNHC 230900
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SOME PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS
OR SO. THAT CONVECTION HAD INITIALLY BEEN LIMITED TO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...BUT HAS BEEN STEADILY WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVERNIGHT. VERY RECENTLY THE CONVECTION HAS
ALSO INCREASED TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHERE SOME
LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING SIGNATURES HAVE EVEN BEEN DETECTED. TAFB
PROVIDED A TROPICAL DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0...WHILE THE SAB
CLASSIFICATION WAS SUBTROPICAL 2.5. THE CYCLONE FELL IN THE GAP
BETWEEN QUIKSCAT PASSES ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...AND DATA FROM A NEW
OVERPASS HAS NOT YET ARRIVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30
KT. THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED SUBTROPICAL FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT IT
IS STILL WELL-INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND SINCE THE
CONVECTION IS STILL A BIT DISTANT FROM THE CENTER. THE RECENT
TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY GAINING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND SHOULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...TRAPPED WITHIN A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW.
ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL CHANGE
SOON...HOWEVER...AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD
OVER ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT LARGER SYSTEM
WILL PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES ON MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE ABSORBED IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING OVER SSTS NEAR 24 CELSIUS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH 40 KT BEFORE TRAVERSING COOLER
WATERS AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 36.2N 46.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 36.7N 46.1W 35 KT...TROPICAL
24HR VT 24/0600Z 38.7N 45.3W 40 KT...TROPICAL
36HR VT 24/1800Z 42.5N 42.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Subtropical Depression Eleven advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 231427
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2007
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM...NO
THREAT TO LAND...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1070
MILES...1725 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JERRY IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATER TODAY.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...36.0 N...46.3 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT31 KNHC 231427
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2007
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM...NO
THREAT TO LAND...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1070
MILES...1725 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JERRY IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATER TODAY.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...36.0 N...46.3 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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047
WTNT41 KNHC 231428
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
AN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE
CIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A
SUBTROPICAL T-NUMBER OF 2.5 USING THE HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD. THE
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY. THE
CYCLONE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-CLOUD
SWIRLS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. HOWEVER...COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE AND VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVERTAKING JERRY WITHIN 48 HOURS...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS LARGER SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
JERRY IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING CURRENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS SHOULD PULL JERRY
TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 36.0N 46.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 37.3N 45.8W 40 KT...TROPICAL
24HR VT 24/1200Z 39.7N 44.0W 45 KT...TROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0000Z 44.0N 40.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 231428
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
AN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE
CIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A
SUBTROPICAL T-NUMBER OF 2.5 USING THE HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD. THE
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY. THE
CYCLONE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-CLOUD
SWIRLS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. HOWEVER...COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE AND VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVERTAKING JERRY WITHIN 48 HOURS...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS LARGER SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
JERRY IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING CURRENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS SHOULD PULL JERRY
TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 36.0N 46.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 37.3N 45.8W 40 KT...TROPICAL
24HR VT 24/1200Z 39.7N 44.0W 45 KT...TROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0000Z 44.0N 40.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Brent
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Re: Subtropical Storm JERRY advisories
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
2100 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 46.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 180SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 46.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 46.3W
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.5N 45.1W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 41.7N 42.3W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 47.0N 38.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTROPICAL CYCLONE
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 46.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
132
WTNT31 KNHC 232030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2007
...JERRY BEGINNING TO TAKE ON TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1060
MILES...1705 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JERRY IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATER TONIGHT.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...36.8 N...46.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
JERRY IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A MORE TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES. LOW CLOUD LINES ARE WRAPPING MORE TIGHTLY AROUND
THE CENTER AND THERE IS SOME DEEP CONVECTION NOT TOO FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
ALREADY ACQUIRED A SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH WARM CORE. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN SUBTROPICAL T2.5 AND THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...SO THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE
DESIGNATED AS A 35-KT SUBTROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. JERRY
WILL PROBABLY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS WILL SOON BE CURTAILED BY COOLING SSTS
AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
FORECAST TO ABSORB JERRY IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
JERRY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...360/5. AS THE STEERING
FLOW INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
DIGGING OFF OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...JERRY SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CATCHES UP TO
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ABSORBS IT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 36.8N 46.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 38.5N 45.1W 40 KT...TROPICAL
24HR VT 24/1800Z 41.7N 42.3W 45 KT...TROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0600Z 47.0N 38.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
2100 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 46.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 180SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 46.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 46.3W
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.5N 45.1W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 41.7N 42.3W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 47.0N 38.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTROPICAL CYCLONE
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 46.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
132
WTNT31 KNHC 232030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2007
...JERRY BEGINNING TO TAKE ON TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1060
MILES...1705 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JERRY IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATER TONIGHT.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...36.8 N...46.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
JERRY IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A MORE TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES. LOW CLOUD LINES ARE WRAPPING MORE TIGHTLY AROUND
THE CENTER AND THERE IS SOME DEEP CONVECTION NOT TOO FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
ALREADY ACQUIRED A SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH WARM CORE. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN SUBTROPICAL T2.5 AND THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...SO THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE
DESIGNATED AS A 35-KT SUBTROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. JERRY
WILL PROBABLY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS WILL SOON BE CURTAILED BY COOLING SSTS
AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
FORECAST TO ABSORB JERRY IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
JERRY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...360/5. AS THE STEERING
FLOW INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
DIGGING OFF OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...JERRY SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CATCHES UP TO
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ABSORBS IT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 36.8N 46.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 38.5N 45.1W 40 KT...TROPICAL
24HR VT 24/1800Z 41.7N 42.3W 45 KT...TROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0600Z 47.0N 38.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: Tropical Storm JERRY advisories
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2007
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 46.1W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 46.1W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 46.3W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 39.5N 44.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 43.6N 40.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 46.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
001
WTNT31 KNHC 240230
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2007
...JERRY BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
MILES...1680 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...37.4 N...46.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY NOW RESEMBLES THAT OF A SHEARED
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED AND
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 2204 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS DECREASED DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW ABOUT 45 NM. BASED ON THE SMALLER RADIUS
OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE WEAK WARM CORE SEEN IN AMSU DATA...JERRY
IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/07. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT JERRY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO ABSORB THE SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE ABSORPTION SINCE JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. IF
JERRY IS UNABLE TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT CONVECTION...IT COULD WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR REMNANT LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 37.4N 46.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 39.5N 44.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 43.6N 40.7W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/1200Z..ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2007
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 46.1W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 46.1W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 46.3W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 39.5N 44.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 43.6N 40.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 46.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
001
WTNT31 KNHC 240230
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2007
...JERRY BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
MILES...1680 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...37.4 N...46.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY NOW RESEMBLES THAT OF A SHEARED
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED AND
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 2204 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS DECREASED DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW ABOUT 45 NM. BASED ON THE SMALLER RADIUS
OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE WEAK WARM CORE SEEN IN AMSU DATA...JERRY
IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/07. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT JERRY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO ABSORB THE SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE ABSORPTION SINCE JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. IF
JERRY IS UNABLE TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT CONVECTION...IT COULD WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR REMNANT LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 37.4N 46.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 39.5N 44.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 43.6N 40.7W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/1200Z..ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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828
WTNT31 KNHC 241459
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 AM AST MON SEP 24 2007
...JERRY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AS IT HEADS FOR COOLER WATERS...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.5 WEST OR ABOUT 945
MILES...1525 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND JERRY IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...39.5 N...44.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
992
WTNT41 KNHC 241500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS NOW DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM BELOW STORM
STRENGTH. THERE IS NOT MUCH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SO IT IS
QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER JERRY IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO WARRANT
ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING DEFORMED AND ILL-DEFINED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...
ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT
JERRY OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/11. THE STEERING CURRENT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...SO AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 39.5N 44.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 42.7N 41.2W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT31 KNHC 241459
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 AM AST MON SEP 24 2007
...JERRY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AS IT HEADS FOR COOLER WATERS...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.5 WEST OR ABOUT 945
MILES...1525 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND JERRY IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...39.5 N...44.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
992
WTNT41 KNHC 241500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS NOW DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM BELOW STORM
STRENGTH. THERE IS NOT MUCH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SO IT IS
QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER JERRY IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO WARRANT
ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING DEFORMED AND ILL-DEFINED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...
ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT
JERRY OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/11. THE STEERING CURRENT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...SO AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 39.5N 44.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 42.7N 41.2W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Depression JERRY advisories
536
WTNT41 KNHC 242038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE WE NEED TO
MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING.
HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE AREA...AND THE
ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ABSORB JERRY IN 12
HOURS OR SO.
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 035/20. JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE THAT IS APPROACHING 50W. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 41.8N 42.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 45.5N 38.7W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 242038
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE WE NEED TO
MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING.
HOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE AREA...AND THE
ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ABSORB JERRY IN 12
HOURS OR SO.
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 035/20. JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE THAT IS APPROACHING 50W. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 41.8N 42.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 45.5N 38.7W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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946
WTNT31 KNHC 250237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 PM AST MON SEP 24 2007
...JERRY DISSIPATES AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD...
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF JERRY HAS DISSIPATED
WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE REMNANTS OF JERRY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES...
1135 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
THE REMNANTS OF JERRY ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 40
MPH...65 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
AS JERRY ACCELERATED AND DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...44.5 N...37.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT31 KNHC 250237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 PM AST MON SEP 24 2007
...JERRY DISSIPATES AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD...
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF JERRY HAS DISSIPATED
WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE REMNANTS OF JERRY WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES...
1135 KM...NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
THE REMNANTS OF JERRY ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 40
MPH...65 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
AS JERRY ACCELERATED AND DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...44.5 N...37.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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