INVEST 98L: FL East Coast: Discussions & Images

[ciclonson]

whatever this is it's a non-event as far as I'm concerned. Looking out the window here in Miami the trees are about as still as I have ever seen them - wind = 0.

[Recurve]

We're in the EYE!!!!!

J/k

I've been working all day and just noticed that the terrible weather is now an invest. I'm writing a story for the newspaper about Karen and the other disturbances and here I am sitting under a possible developing TD. We're at about 25/80.4. This morning on Nexrad there was a clear gyre right overhead, NWS key west mentioned several gyres possibly moving around a central low. It was as dark as I've ever seen it this morning, rained pretty hard all day, blue sky opened up in the last hour, now the next dark band is coming overhead.
Winds at ground level here are very shifting judging from high flagpoles -- east, then southeast, then briefly southwest, but that may be just eddies and outflows.
Pennekamp is showing fairly steady pressure and winds under 10k now.

All keys Obs are here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/HTML/obs.php

[cpdaman]

i think the radar reflection is a MID LEVEL center

per melbourne 230 disc

MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE LOW
EITHER MOVING NORTHEAST OR REDEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD

i take it this would be the weak swirl near key west (likely redeveloping north of settlement point IMO)

[DanKellFla]

There looks to be a center of rotation just south of Miami, over the water right now.

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND A PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN.

[cpdaman]

intresting so this feature will be seperate from the low forecast to head toward/off the carolina's from the south tonite or so it seems.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Melbourne says DeJa Vu starting Sunday for FL

SAT-WED (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TOWARD THE MID ATLC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY INCREASING ENE WINDS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC FRONT WILL RETURN TWD FAR
SRN SECTIONS SATURDAY WHERE HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN ORDER. FOR SUN
INTO MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A MID LVL
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF WILL SPELL A FAIRLY WET END TO THE
WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH ATLC SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS CONTINUING TO STREAM ONSHORE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF BY SUN
INTO MONDAY AS WELL. TUE-WED...LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE ESE/SE
WITH CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE FEED INTO THE AREA WITH CLOSED LOW AND
POSSIBLE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT MOVING TWD THE WRN GULF. WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE EVEN MORE AS EVENT
DRAWS CLOSER WITH SE FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
ATLC SHOWER BANDS TO CONTINUE TO TRAIN ONSHORE.

&&

Also see what WXman57 sees..

[wxman57]

Just a weak low that will likely be drawn up the approaching front tomorrow night and absorbed. Chances of TS development are slim.

[mightyerick]

It still have a chance to become subtropical.
Anyways, Tropical developing odds are near nil.

[chadtm80]

[cpdaman]

i think we may need separate threads for this because

1. the low level swirl mentioned in TWO just south of key west is nearly stationary

2. and you can see here

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

a surface low is just off broward county and forecast to develop further over the gulf stream as it rides NNE rather briskly over next 48 hours with chance for subtropical development IMO

p.s you can also see the swirl or rain around the weak low near key west

that graphic is misleading IMO because this thing has been stationary all day and is separate

[jlauderdal]

i think we may need separate threads for this because

1. the low level swirl mentioned in TWO just south of key west is nearly stationary

2. and you can see here

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

a surface low is just off broward county and forecast to develop further over the gulf stream as it rides NNE rather briskly over next 48 hours with chance for subtropical development IMO

p.s you can also see the swirl or rain around the weak low near key west

that graphic is misleading IMO because this thing has been stationary all day and is separate

i just walked outside and can confirm by the direction the clouds are moving there is a low just to my east

[cpdaman]

i would also like to add that there is another BLOB north of this ft. lauderdale low (SSE of the carolina's) so i'm not sure if this ft. laud low is the one that is supposed to ride up the coast or not.

kinda complicated at least in my perspective

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think I have located two Lows, One just east of the Southeast FL coast
and one over Key West. Note some thunderstorms
are developing around the Key West Low and numerous
thunderstorms in bands along the SE FL coast low

[jlauderdal]

I think I have located two Lows, One just east of the Southeast FL coast
and one over Key West. Note some thunderstorms
are developing around the Key West Low and numerous
thunderstorms in bands along the SE FL coast low

[url=http://img385.imageshack.us/my.php?image=98lwt5.gif][img]http://img385.imageshack.us/img385/5905/98lwt5.th.gif[/
img][/url]

iits a double, i think the fll low is in control but lets see what happens tomorrow, the trough is really the player and anything that happens will ride up the line as it lifts out to the nne

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

From this loop the Low near Fort Lauderdale is lifting
NNE over the past several hours, and a swirl with little
convection exists around key west. We will have to see what
these circulations decide to do, seems like 2 distinct
lows...both will accelerate NNE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[CrazyC83]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN LOCATED IN THE SW PORTION. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. A 1013 MB LOW FORMED THIS MORNING NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA.
THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED NEARLY-STATIONARY AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND A PORTION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE LOWEST SFC PRES ARE FOUND NEAR KEY WEST AND THE WINDS
REMAINS OUT OF THE E AND SE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...
DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD AREA PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
LOW. SOME SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY HAS FLARED UP NEAR TAMPA BAY. A
DECREASING TREND IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE NRN GULF
WATERS. ALOFT...A RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF
ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER NE MEXICO. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/WESTERN CUBA. DIFFLUENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS HELPING TO INDUCE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So the Circulation near Fort lauderdale is a mid level low,
and the one over Key west is the surface low.
Interesting that they mention the lowest
pressures being found near key west.

Convection around the key west low
is minimal for now, just some thunderstorms
around it. The discussion also mentions that it
is moving slowly NE. The MLC looks to be
lifting NE at a faster rate, but the LLC
over the Key West area does not seemed
to have moved much. It is possible that it
could develop some more intense
thunderstorms around it. And if it keeps
moving slowly, there may even be a shot at further
development.

Anyway, that's how it looks in light of the latest
discussions.

One of the squalls from this rolled through
central florida and off the SW coast producing
some gusty winds and tropical showers earlier.

Though the heaviest rain by far has remained
over the SE coast. It would be nice
if the LLC could fire up some thunderstorms
as it passes over lake ockeechobee on its
projected NE track, filling up the lake just a
bit.

[PhillyWX]

Just a weak low that will likely be drawn up the approaching front tomorrow night and absorbed. Chances of TS development are slim.

I would agree with this. It's going to enhance the low and cold front moving off of the coast and help pick the winds up over the northeast on Friday but I don't see this being a big player.

I think the CMC is not going to verify on this one.

[Sanibel]

This might be one of the rare ones that actually does relocate under the deeper convection. If not, it is losing the surface spiral near Key West.

The air is dry here with good visibility.