INVEST 98L: FL East Coast: Discussions & Images

[Thunder44]

The Low is swirling west of Key West...not moving

possible rapid intensification on this folks. Stay tuned. South Florida get ready for alot of rain at the minimum

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

The LLC is complety exposed and the convection is moving away from it. I don't think it will develop until moves into the Western Atlantic.

[ronjon]

The low pressure is under high shear. No rapid deepening under this situation. The 12Z GFS looks like it initialized the low too far east too.

[cpdaman]

yeah sure don't see rapid int. going on 2 day. the system is clearly visible hear

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

near KYW

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

long range miami shows not much rotation on radar near key west IMO


water vapor of gulf shows upper level troughiness and dry air over or just west of LLC below

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

this seems like it would be subtropical in nature IMO

big picture shows

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html trough of low pressure off se coast as well and this area is supposed to develop tonite and head just ne of carolina's tommorrow and then cape cod on friday. i wonder if this s. fl swirl will just die or if ths is the beginning of this

WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH TONIGHT NEAR 29N79W
AND MOVING NE OF THE AREA THU NIGHT from NDBC bouy forecast for SW N atlantic waters bouy 41010

[Vortex]

Lots of convergence along the SE coast...The weak low will aid in continued lift this afternoon and tonight...Areas along the SE coast may receive 5-10". SW Florida and the lake will probablly see less than 2" at the most from this localized event...

[TampaFl]

From College of DuPage: (Click upper right hand corner on visible animation)

Low visible near Key West detached from main cloud mass. Appears to be drifting wsw. Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/radmaster.pl?Carribbean

[MortisFL]

Possible rapid intensification....oh boy.

The Low is swirling west of Key West...not moving

possible rapid intensification on this folks. Stay tuned. South Florida get ready for alot of rain at the minimum

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[BigA]

I wonder if this system would be a candidate for "center" relocation later today or tonight. There looks to be a spin in the radar a little south of the tip of the Florida Peninsula, between the peninsula and the keys. The radar from Miami seems to show a similar phenomenon.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

[MWatkins]

Rapid intensification, although always a consideration at this time of year, is simply not a big concern.

Yes the water is warm...but we also have 20 knots of shear in place. The fact that the convection is removed from the low precludes RI...

Instead it's probably better to look at this not as RI, but as an RE (Rain Event)...for now at least.

MW

[TampaFl]

Map courtesy Aviationweather.gov:

[jlauderdal]

Possible rapid intensification....oh boy.

The Low is swirling west of Key West...not moving

possible rapid intensification on this folks. Stay tuned. South Florida get ready for alot of rain at the minimum

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

highly unlikely in this setup, minimal event for sarasota

[Steve H.]

BigA I agree with you, but will probably be proven wrong as this thing evolves. The LCC near Key West seems to be filling or getting pulled into and under the convection due south of the FLorida peninsula. Look at the convective bands coming off Cuba and watch their direction. Seems to be a reformation going on to the east of the present elongated center that is exposed.

[deltadog03]

Actually looking at the miami radar i think there is a low level center near Key Largo!!

[jlauderdal]

Actually looking at the miami radar i think there is a low level center near Key Largo!!

we need to send max mayfield up in the channel 10 miami traffic chopper to conduct his own recon mission. i would task him to head over to the spin around key largo than continue on towards key west and report back on the 5 pm news what he found. he really hasnt had much to do this season with his new gig over at channel 10.

[cycloneye]

[MiamiensisWx]

I was going to mention that the swirl near Key West, FL appears to have been situated within a broader low-level circulation that is centered further E (over the middle/upper FL Keys). Take a look at the NWS Miami radar and GOES visible loop. I would not be surprised if this area will become the primary LLC, especially because of the fact that it's situated under the main convective mass. It will be difficult to pinpoint an exact "center" until shear decreases and 98L moves across southern FL (en route to the Bahamas and W Atlantic).

Miami radar

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[deltadog03]

Actually Luis, it appears that its wounding itself up very nicely. Nice tight little spin. also notice the spiral bands starting to take shape.

[skysummit]

This has got to be the strongest invest I've ever seen. KOPF is reporting north winds at 98 knots. LOL

[CrazyC83]

This has got to be the strongest invest I've ever seen. KOPF is reporting north winds at 98 knots. LOL

Must be an error. I can't remember any open wave having hurricane winds, let alone Cat 2-3 winds...

[jlauderdal]

This has got to be the strongest invest I've ever seen. KOPF is reporting north winds at 98 knots. LOL

Must be an error. I can't remember any open wave having hurricane winds, let alone Cat 2-3 winds...

im in miami lakes right now 5 minutes from KOPF and winds might be 9.8 knots but certainly not 98. steady rain since 9 am though.

[fci]

Our luck, rainwise; the center will reform east and draw all the convection with it.