INVEST 98L: FL Straits: Global & BAM Models

[drezee]

924
WHXX01 KWBC 261321
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1321 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070926 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070926 1200 070927 0000 070927 1200 070928 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.5N 81.8W 25.3N 82.2W 26.0N 82.1W 26.8N 81.5W
BAMD 24.5N 81.8W 25.2N 81.4W 25.9N 80.9W 26.8N 80.3W
BAMM 24.5N 81.8W 25.4N 81.8W 26.2N 81.5W 27.2N 80.8W
LBAR 24.5N 81.8W 25.6N 81.6W 27.1N 81.3W 29.3N 81.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070928 1200 070929 1200 070930 1200 071001 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 81.0W 27.9N 81.8W 27.7N 84.7W 26.6N 88.8W
BAMD 28.1N 79.1W 31.2N 76.3W 32.6N 75.1W 32.7N 77.1W
BAMM 28.3N 79.9W 30.1N 78.7W 30.5N 80.2W 30.7N 84.4W
LBAR 31.6N 79.9W 35.9N 74.3W 37.1N 67.6W 35.9N 63.1W
SHIP 53KTS 58KTS 55KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 36KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.5N LONCUR = 81.8W DIRCUR = 25DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 23.7N LONM12 = 82.2W DIRM12 = 25DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 82.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

yeah I knew that was coming.

This one could ramp up quickly once it gets going. Lots of flooding issues for South Florida.

Lets hope only slow development.

[poof121]

CMC has this going into NC as a significant storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007092600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

['CaneFreak]

CMC has this going into NC as a significant storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007092600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

WOW!!! NO KIDDING!!!

[x-y-no]

Well ,the canadian loves to intensify everything. But I do think this has a fair chance at development once it gets across SFL into the Atlantic.

[tracyswfla]

Looks like rain for us.... I hope that's it. It's to close to develop.

[Sanibel]

Dry side upwind of the shear. No rain for the rainless.

[BigA]

The waters off the Southeast US coast are plenty warm, and if shear drops off, which Jeff Masters suggested in his latest blog, this system could crank. It will be interesting to see if it gets hooked west, turned out to sea, or is just sort of left there to spin for a while. As an area forecast discussion (from Caribou Maine of all places!) explains, this low may develop into a tropical system, then get drawn into a trough and move into the northeast. This would be an interesting setup, even if it is all speculation at this point.

[Derek Ortt]

may have a good set-up for some fairly rapid intensification due to QG forcing.

The approaching trough to the west should allow this to get going quickly

[BigA]

may have a good set-up for some fairly rapid intensification due to QG forcing.

The approaching trough to the west should allow this to get going quickly

I feel ignorant, (but eager to learn) so I have two questions. What is QG forcing, and how could it help this system, and is there any possibility that the trough could pick it up after it develops (if it does) and turn it into a hybrid/extratropical low and move it into the northeast?

Thank you for taking the time to answer these. I appreciate it.

[shortwave]

Derek how quikly do you see this moving ne?

[gatorcane]

may have a good set-up for some fairly rapid intensification due to QG forcing.

The approaching trough to the west should allow this to get going quickly

agree with Derek here, this may sneak up on South Florida in a hurry.

[Lowpressure]

may have a good set-up for some fairly rapid intensification due to QG forcing.

The approaching trough to the west should allow this to get going quickly

agree with Derek here, this may sneak up on South Florida in a hurry.

I think it will wait until the Eastern side of Fla to really intensify. Too much time sitting over the Gulf Stream will be prime ground for storm development.

[Lowpressure]

may have a good set-up for some fairly rapid intensification due to QG forcing.

The approaching trough to the west should allow this to get going quickly

agree with Derek here, this may sneak up on South Florida in a hurry.

I think it will wait until the Eastern side of Fla to really intensify.

[tolakram]

may have a good set-up for some fairly rapid intensification due to QG forcing.

The approaching trough to the west should allow this to get going quickly

I feel ignorant, (but eager to learn) so I have two questions. What is QG forcing, and how could it help this system, and is there any possibility that the trough could pick it up after it develops (if it does) and turn it into a hybrid/extratropical low and move it into the northeast?

Thank you for taking the time to answer these. I appreciate it.

I don't know the answer but google comes up with numerous hits:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=qg ... gle+Search

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070926 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070926 1800 070927 0600 070927 1800 070928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.6N 81.5W 26.3N 81.9W 27.1N 81.5W 27.9N 80.5W
BAMD 25.6N 81.5W 26.1N 81.1W 26.8N 80.7W 28.0N 79.8W
BAMM 25.6N 81.5W 26.4N 81.5W 27.3N 80.9W 28.5N 79.8W
LBAR 25.6N 81.5W 26.7N 81.1W 28.2N 80.8W 30.3N 80.1W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070928 1800 070929 1800 070930 1800 071001 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.9N 79.1W 29.5N 78.7W 29.2N 82.1W 28.9N 86.9W
BAMD 29.6N 78.0W 33.0N 73.8W 33.2N 72.4W 33.3N 74.7W
BAMM 30.0N 77.9W 31.8N 74.3W 31.2N 75.1W 31.8N 79.3W
LBAR 32.6N 78.5W 36.4N 72.2W 37.8N 65.4W 37.1N 60.3W
SHIP 53KTS 56KTS 52KTS 47KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 39KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.6N LONCUR = 81.5W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 82.2W DIRM12 = 24DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 22.8N LONM24 = 82.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Derek Ortt]

18Z GFDL is sniffing glue or something, but it is similar to the 0Z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[CrazyC83]

CMC has this going into NC as a significant storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007092600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Kinda reminiscent of Diana in 1984...

[hurricanetrack]

old GFDL?