EPAC: Tropical Depression JULIETTE

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EPAC: Tropical Depression JULIETTE

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 27, 2007 12:32 pm

Image

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS ORGANIZATION. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: Invest 99E

#2 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:05 pm

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Re: EPAC: Invest 99E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:47 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992007) 20070927 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070927 1800 070928 0600 070928 1800 070929 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 103.1W 14.6N 104.6W 14.8N 106.5W 15.5N 108.5W
BAMD 14.2N 103.1W 14.6N 104.6W 15.0N 106.1W 15.7N 107.7W
BAMM 14.2N 103.1W 14.6N 104.5W 15.0N 106.1W 15.7N 107.9W
LBAR 14.2N 103.1W 14.6N 104.7W 15.3N 106.6W 16.2N 108.7W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070929 1800 070930 1800 071001 1800 071002 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 110.3W 19.1N 114.5W 21.6N 119.0W 23.0N 122.8W
BAMD 16.7N 109.4W 19.6N 112.6W 22.8N 115.4W 25.3N 115.6W
BAMM 16.9N 109.7W 19.6N 113.2W 22.6N 116.8W 24.7N 119.0W
LBAR 17.2N 110.3W 21.3N 113.3W 23.9N 114.2W 25.7N 114.1W
SHIP 52KTS 60KTS 55KTS 43KTS
DSHP 52KTS 60KTS 55KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 103.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 101.7W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 100.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: EPAC: Invest 99E

#4 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:47 pm

Ah, that would be this one that I saw on Lorenzo's floater. :)
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 27, 2007 6:40 pm

999
ABPZ20 KNHC 272314
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2007

CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 27, 2007 6:44 pm

TD14-E may be on the horizon too...will Lorenzo play a role in all this by feeding moisture or shear?
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#7 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:41 pm

Image
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:05 am

807
ABPZ20 KNHC 281039
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

Image
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#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:00 am

No TD14-E yet (that would be confusing to have declared TD14's in both the Atlantic and EPAC at the same time)
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#10 Postby Chacor » Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:23 am

That's not a valid reason, and you should know that.
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Re:

#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:10 am

Chacor wrote:That's not a valid reason, and you should know that.


I know it is not, it is just a comment I made.
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#12 Postby Chacor » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:13 am

TWO due out soon. From six hours ago, though,
Image
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#13 Postby Chacor » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:36 am

WTPN21 PHNC 281430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 106.5W TO 16.1N 111.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2N 106.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.2N 106.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
28/0910Z AMSRE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK, DEVELOPING
BANDING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR OUTFLOW AND UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED CON-
SOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 291430Z.//
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#14 Postby Chacor » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:58 am

ABPZ20 KNHC 281644
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:42 pm

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/1800 UTC 14.6N 107.6W T1.5/1.5 99E -- East Pacific Ocean
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#16 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:45 pm

Huge burst of convection. Advisories will probably be initiated in an hour or seven.
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:49 pm

Image

Very close to TD 14, if not there already.
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Re: EPAC: Invest 99E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:51 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 281940
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1940 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992007) 20070928 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070928 1800 070929 0600 070929 1800 070930 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 107.6W 15.1N 109.4W 16.3N 111.2W 17.7N 113.2W
BAMD 14.5N 107.6W 15.1N 109.7W 16.4N 111.8W 18.4N 113.9W
BAMM 14.5N 107.6W 15.2N 109.5W 16.5N 111.4W 18.2N 113.4W
LBAR 14.5N 107.6W 15.1N 109.5W 16.3N 111.7W 18.1N 113.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070930 1800 071001 1800 071002 1800 071003 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 115.6W 22.6N 119.7W 23.5N 122.4W 24.2N 123.9W
BAMD 21.1N 116.0W 28.1N 116.8W 30.9N 109.5W 31.5N 102.8W
BAMM 20.3N 115.7W 25.3N 118.6W 27.3N 118.8W 29.1N 116.2W
LBAR 20.5N 115.2W 26.0N 117.3W 28.9N 114.2W 29.6N 110.9W
SHIP 55KTS 42KTS 17KTS 0KTS
DSHP 55KTS 42KTS 17KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 107.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 106.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 104.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

No TD yet.
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#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:21 pm

SHIPS takes it up to a strong tropical storm...
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#20 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:40 pm

I'm pretty sure this is at least a TD now. A huge burst of deep convection growing larger each hour. What's the reason for no upgrade?
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