Ex-Melissa (Back on NRL)

[Evil Jeremy]

Because this is back on NRL, Shouldn't a topic be on it in here?

[Chacor]

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
MELISSA...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 1350
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Melissa trys to get going,but the shear does not let it go ahead.

[CrazyC83]

It needs to get above the shear to have a chance.

[cycloneye]

KWBC 031833
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC WED OCT 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE MELISSA (AL142007) 20071003 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071003 1800 071004 0600 071004 1800 071005 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.4N 47.2W 22.1N 48.6W 23.1N 50.2W 23.9N 51.5W
BAMD 21.4N 47.2W 23.0N 46.1W 24.7N 44.3W 26.4N 40.6W
BAMM 21.4N 47.2W 22.3N 47.4W 23.5N 47.6W 25.1N 47.1W
LBAR 21.4N 47.2W 22.6N 47.5W 23.8N 47.3W 24.7N 46.5W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071005 1800 071006 1800 071007 1800 071008 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.7N 52.7W 25.5N 56.1W 27.7N 60.5W 29.6N 63.4W
BAMD 28.2N 34.8W 32.9N 21.1W 36.7N 5.5W 32.6N 8.6E
BAMM 26.3N 44.2W 27.2N 33.8W 30.0N 25.8W 32.0N 24.1W
LBAR 25.4N 44.5W 26.2N 36.9W 30.0N 28.6W 32.3N 25.3W
SHIP 46KTS 41KTS 35KTS 30KTS
DSHP 46KTS 41KTS 35KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.4N LONCUR = 47.2W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 20.1N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 18.9N LONM24 = 43.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

The models are back with her.

[CrazyC83]

KWBC 031833
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC WED OCT 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE MELISSA (AL142007) 20071003 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071003 1800 071004 0600 071004 1800 071005 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.4N 47.2W 22.1N 48.6W 23.1N 50.2W 23.9N 51.5W
BAMD 21.4N 47.2W 23.0N 46.1W 24.7N 44.3W 26.4N 40.6W
BAMM 21.4N 47.2W 22.3N 47.4W 23.5N 47.6W 25.1N 47.1W
LBAR 21.4N 47.2W 22.6N 47.5W 23.8N 47.3W 24.7N 46.5W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071005 1800 071006 1800 071007 1800 071008 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.7N 52.7W 25.5N 56.1W 27.7N 60.5W 29.6N 63.4W
BAMD 28.2N 34.8W 32.9N 21.1W 36.7N 5.5W 32.6N 8.6E
BAMM 26.3N 44.2W 27.2N 33.8W 30.0N 25.8W 32.0N 24.1W
LBAR 25.4N 44.5W 26.2N 36.9W 30.0N 28.6W 32.3N 25.3W
SHIP 46KTS 41KTS 35KTS 30KTS
DSHP 46KTS 41KTS 35KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.4N LONCUR = 47.2W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 20.1N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 18.9N LONM24 = 43.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

The models are back with her.

Already at 30 kt. Could go straight back to Tropical Storm Melissa if she regains intensity.

Shear is moderate but decreasing. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[AnnularCane]

I wouldn't mind having Melissa back.

The BAMD looks sort of...odd. Any graphics with that one?

[Chacor]

(Semi-)exposed LLC...

[Windsurfer_NYC]

03/1745 UTC 21.2N 47.2W TOO WEAK MELISSA -- Atlantic Ocean

[Buck]

Come back Melissa! We barely had a chance to get to know each other!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY LIMITED. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD STILL
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1300
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[HurricaneRobert]

I don't think it will come back, but GFDL develops Melissa into a category 1 hurricane.

[windlyweathergirl]

I'm hoping for the GFDL situation.

[Chacor]

Pretty much gone...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1100
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/rgb-l.jpg
Ex melissa's center is not exposed any more if it even has a center now.

[cycloneye]

5:30 PM TWO:

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1025
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

[CrazyC83]

04/2345 UTC 23.2N 54.6W T1.0/1.0 MELISSA -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO:

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 950
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE.

[Coredesat]

From the 5:30 TWO:

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE LOCATED ABOUT 850
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT AND TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

If this isn't mentioned in the 10:30 TWO, I'll archive this thread.