EX INVEST 93L Thread

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cycloneye
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Re: INVEST 93L : NNW of Puerto Rico : 10:30 PM TWO Posted

#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 05, 2007 9:33 pm

San Juan Long Range Loop

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

You can judge for yourself if this is moving northward or not.I see it almost stationary.
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#22 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Oct 05, 2007 9:39 pm

Well the models paint the synoptics after looking at globals
a deeper system just may try to move north but that
ridge is just too strong IMO.
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Re: INVEST 93L : NNW of Puerto Rico : 10:30 PM TWO Posted

#23 Postby frederic79 » Fri Oct 05, 2007 9:44 pm

Two things I noticed and I may be off base here, but here goes...
1- The initial postition posted on the NRL for 93L appears to be east of where the center is on the IR satellite loop.
2- The actual position looks several degrees due west of where it appeared this morning. Remember it was directly over PR
and now looks to be centered more toward the DR instead.
I don't know what motion it will exhibit tomorrow but for today I treally think it's drifted due west.
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Re: INVEST 93L : NNW of Puerto Rico : 10:30 PM TWO Posted

#24 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Oct 05, 2007 9:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:San Juan Long Range Loop

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

You can judge for yourself if this is moving northward or not.I see it almost stationary.


Thank you cycloneye
Looks pretty much stationary...maybe a small movement
WSW...IMO

That area of green looks like convection
around a low moving slowly WSW...with the
axis of the ridge and the ridge is forcing it
WSW.
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Re: INVEST 93L : NNW of Puerto Rico : Discussions & Images

#25 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:07 pm

The vortex moving SW over the Florida Straits is now over Cuba and has had deep convection slide over it from the Keys. Whether this is coincidence or will boost the storm has yet to be seen.

93L looks like a weak disturbance in diurnal minimum very slowly coming together. This trough has sat over prime waters for too long to be nothing. Keep watching.
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Re: INVEST 93L : NNW of Puerto Rico : Discussions & Images

#26 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:18 pm

This is JBs 3 week old Karen will come back someday disturbance.
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#27 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:39 pm

hmmm. This one does appear it is organizing tonight. The north drift is supposed to continue or is it temporary?

There is definitely some kind of rotation going on NW of Puerto Rico

Any models sniffing anything out?

Here is the mean mid-level flow. The big ridge sits just to the north so I think temporary north movement and then more west or so as it feels this ridge.

Image
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#28 Postby fci » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:45 pm

Looking at the map I cant imagine how it will go headfirst into a ridge.

More likely it will try and die.
Like all the Invests seem to do.
The "dying" part I mean.


(nice to see you back gatorcane)
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Re:

#29 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:47 pm

fci wrote:Looking at the map I cant imagine how it will go headfirst into a ridge.

More likely it will try and die.
Like all the Invests seem to do.
The "dying" part I mean.


(nice to see you back gatorcane)


agreed. I say 10% chance of development. Why would something all of the sudden burgeon now after everything near where it is trying to develop has been sheared to bits....

thanks Dave, I do miss this board alot --- I had some serious withdrawals being away from it for a week.

Storm2K is definitely the place to be if you like weather like I do :)
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Re: INVEST 93L Models Thread= 00z GFS rolling in

#30 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:48 pm

00z GFS at 30 Hours North of Hispañola

00z GFS at 42 Hours Still North of Hispañola

00z GFS at 54 Hours Well,a bunch of lows from North of Hispañola to hundreds of miles to the east.

00z GFS at 72 Hours Low NE of Puerto Rico

00z GFS at 84 Hours Not moving much

00z GFS at 96 Hours Moves more NE

00z GFS at 102 Hours Low moves slowly NE

00z GFS at 108 Hours Low dissapears

00z GFS at 120 Hours Low continues absent. I will stop here.
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#31 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:49 pm

wow -- interesting Luis.

Is it me or is this setup more like early September in the tropics? Is it really October?
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#32 Postby fci » Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:57 pm

The 54 hour looks like 93L belched (or perhaps barfed) and a bunch of little lows came spewing out.

Sorry, it sounds gross but not sure how to describe it. :hehe:
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#33 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:06 pm

Looks like the ole GFS wants to crank it up and yank it out of there. But again, look at all of the low pressure areas out there- of course, this is not the models thread, but still...what's up with all the low pressure centers on the GFS?
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Re: INVEST 93L : NNW of Puerto Rico : Discussions & Images

#34 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:08 pm

:uarrow: Something eventually has to give and form from the monsoon trough.
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#35 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:08 pm

Yep. Perhaps that is screwing up the model and its ability to determine a realistic track. We'll just have to wait and see....again.
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#36 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:09 pm

Looking at the surface animation, it appears that the GFS has two low pressure areas and splits them- sending one west and weakening while the other heads east and gets stronger. Can't be right...
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Derek Ortt

#37 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:11 pm

looks like a broad, linear area of low-pressure

The NE track seems reasonable with the approaching trough in 3-5 days
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#38 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:16 pm

And what's with the rapidly deepening cyclone that starts off of New England, heads southeast and then really cranks up over the north-central Atlantic. Looks like another named sub-tropical storm?
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Re: INVEST 93L Models Thread

#39 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:42 pm

This is not early september pattern I can promise you that. Or if you consider september of 97 with screaming westly over the tropical Atlantic normal sure. Yes its october and there is a few favorable area's. So I won't declare the season over, I don't have the nerve to do so.
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Derek Ortt

#40 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:47 pm

we are not in early September
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