EX INVEST 94L Thread

[cycloneye]

12 CMC Animation

Peeps,dont look at the animation.

[BigA]

00Z +144 Canadian has a strong cyclone over western cuba heading NE...


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... dd_100.gif

Just in time for my fall break, when I am returning to Florida.

My gut says something will form in the area, given climatology and rather favorable conditions, but it will need time. I wouldnt expect anything classified before late Monday, but this is just my opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, there are a lot of seasons where nothing big gets into the Gulf, and somehow it still gets too cool to swim comfortably by Spring Break time the following year in Texas. Not that the inebriated college students care.

Yeah, I agree. Energy doesn't accumulate over the long run in the GOM or the Caribbean. They're both like cups of water and the open Atlantic is the bathtub. Which is easier to heat?

And the oceanic circulations also carry heat out of the tropics. If it didn't, the Carolinas would be no more prone to tropical cyclones than Spain. And there wouldn't be palm trees on the West coasts of parts of the UK.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, there are a lot of seasons where nothing big gets into the Gulf, and somehow it still gets too cool to swim comfortably by Spring Break time the following year in Texas. Not that the inebriated college students care.

Yeah, I agree. Energy doesn't accumulate over the long run in the GOM or the Caribbean. They're both like cups of water and the open Atlantic is the bathtub. Which is easier to heat?

And the oceanic circulations also carry heat out of the tropics. If it didn't, the Carolinas would be no more prone to tropical cyclones than Spain. And there wouldn't be palm trees on the West coasts of parts of the UK.

The eclipse is getting shorter. I knew it would, but an extra 30 minutes of satellite, to 0345Z before it started!

Edit and quote are too close to each other for my bad mouse-fu. I was going to add the eclipse comment to pre-existing comment.

[fci]

00Z +144 Canadian has a strong cyclone over western cuba heading NE...


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... dd_100.gif

Well aI am relieved if the CMC shows a storm headed our way because this season it is never correct on storms that it shows headed our way!

[fci]

Like I said in the other thread, when the CMC shows a storm headed to Fl I breath a sigh of relief but it has said so repeatedly this season and we have not even been in the cone!

[dwsqos2]

00Z GFDL

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Those models have done it before. I would not put to much stock in any thing more then 48 hours ahead this year.

[jlauderdal]

Like I said in the other thread, when the CMC shows a storm headed to Fl I breath a sigh of relief but it has said so repeatedly this season and we have not even been in the cone!

i have been hit by so many "model" hurricanes im punch drunk

[Thunder44]

From the 5:30am TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

FORECASTER BLAKE

[Nimbus]

The convection after the eclipse looks like it is in an area with relatively low shear. Large Flare east of Barbados and a third NNW of PR, At least one of these areas should spin up.

[cycloneye]

8:05 AM TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE BROAD LOW PRES TROUGH
OBSERVED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIB SEA. YESTERDAY AND
EARLIER THIS MORNING...INCLUDING ON THE 06Z ANALYSIS...WE HAVE
BEEN TRACKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE NW CARIB. BASED ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. AS OF 09Z...THE NRN LOW IS
ANALYZED ABOUT 75 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO NEAR 20N86W. THE SRN
LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM NE OF ERN HONDURAS NEAR
17N82W...BOTH OF THESE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. SYNOPTIC SFC
PRESSURES ARE RUNNING 2-4 MB LOWER ACROSS THIS GENERAL VICINITY
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE LOW OF INTEREST THIS
MORNING IS THE SRN ONE AS CONVECTION HAS FORMED AND EXPANDED
SINCE COMING OUT OF THE GOES-E SAT ECLIPSE A FEW HOURS AGO.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

$$
CANGIALOSI

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[jlauderdal]

8:05 AM TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE BROAD LOW PRES TROUGH
OBSERVED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIB SEA. YESTERDAY AND
EARLIER THIS MORNING...INCLUDING ON THE 06Z ANALYSIS...WE HAVE
BEEN TRACKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE NW CARIB. BASED ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. AS OF 09Z...THE NRN LOW IS
ANALYZED ABOUT 75 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO NEAR 20N86W. THE SRN
LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM NE OF ERN HONDURAS NEAR
17N82W...BOTH OF THESE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. SYNOPTIC SFC
PRESSURES ARE RUNNING 2-4 MB LOWER ACROSS THIS GENERAL VICINITY
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE LOW OF INTEREST THIS
MORNING IS THE SRN ONE AS CONVECTION HAS FORMED AND EXPANDED
SINCE COMING OUT OF THE GOES-E SAT ECLIPSE A FEW HOURS AGO.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

$$
CANGIALOSI

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=109

oh its ortts buddy cangialosi with the write up

[cycloneye]

It will be interesting to see the latest thoughts from him today.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: It will be interesting to see the latest thoughts from him today.

yes, we have to be a little more careful this time of year in sofla with systems in this location. i believefrom the no-name storm that put a whole bunch of rain ons ofla started in this are of the world. also Irene came from that direction too. all of the above subject to correction by historians with a better recollection of the facts than mine.

[CourierPR]

Yes, from the looks of things on imagery, we may finally have something coming together down there. The pressure is low and the convection seems to be organizing.

[cycloneye]

I think is time to have a Floater over 94L.

Will the mission for this afternoon go?

A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01LLA INVEST
C. 07/1430Z
D. 17.0N 85.0W
E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[cycloneye]

07/1145 UTC 17.1N 82.3W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

First T Numbers are given to 94L.

While I was typing this post,the Floater for 94L came up so here it is.

[HURAKAN]

Based on the current appearance of 94L, I would say that the RECON mission is a go.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 071244
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SUN OCT 7 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071007 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071007 1200 071008 0000 071008 1200 071009 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 82.4W 17.9N 82.8W 18.9N 83.6W 20.2N 84.7W
BAMD 17.0N 82.4W 17.4N 82.9W 18.2N 83.5W 19.3N 84.1W
BAMM 17.0N 82.4W 17.7N 83.1W 18.7N 83.9W 19.8N 85.0W
LBAR 17.0N 82.4W 17.3N 82.7W 18.3N 83.2W 19.8N 83.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 54KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071009 1200 071010 1200 071011 1200 071012 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.1N 86.1W 21.7N 89.5W 20.4N 92.9W 18.0N 95.6W
BAMD 20.1N 84.8W 21.2N 85.5W 22.0N 84.8W 23.4N 80.9W
BAMM 20.7N 86.3W 21.1N 89.1W 20.4N 92.1W 19.1N 94.6W
LBAR 21.4N 83.7W 23.6N 82.2W 25.2N 78.0W 29.1N 70.7W
SHIP 63KTS 79KTS 80KTS 77KTS
DSHP 63KTS 38KTS 37KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 82.4W DIRCUR = 120DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 82.8W DIRM12 = 136DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 83.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM