EX INVEST 94L Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looking much better with convection
concentrated and organization.

[wxman57]

Surface obs in the area show nothing significant. Just S-SE winds 5-10 kts north and south of the thunderstorms. Nothing to investigate. Recon will not likely fly. Development chances don't look too good, but pressures are low in the region, so it's something to keep an eye on over the next week.

[canegrl04]

Forget the other invests. 94L is the one to watch.It has the greatest potential to become a threat

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not that impressed... still no low level convergence. Would not be surprised to see the convection dissipate this afternoon

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wow. An invest everyday. Dr.Lyons said 1004mb broad low down there. Pretty low pressures. That's the place to watch this week. I'm sure the CMC has a Cat 6. Definitely the only game in town. Next year they need to throw the CMC out the front window.

[Derek Ortt]

floater taken down from NHC sat page

[wxman57]

Recon canceled for today.

[cycloneye]

. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE TEAL 70
A. 08/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01LLA INVEST
C. 08/1500Z
D. 18.0N 82.5W
E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO TEAL 71
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02LLA CYCLONE
C. 09/0200Z
D. 18.0N 82.5W
E. 09/0500Z TO 09/1030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 07/1800Z AND 08/0600Z ON THIS SYSTEM
CANCELLED AT 07/1345Z.

They are still interested in the system although todays mission has been canceled.

[Derek Ortt]

if we had a tropical wave moving into this area... this would be a shoe in to develop

but since there does not appear to be any within 5 days of this feature, it is getting close to the point where I will be saying "next invest please"

[Thunder44]

floater taken down from NHC sat page

I still see it there. Although it's not labeled "Invest 94L" anymore:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[cycloneye]

But once is not active,the pics dont update.The last time of pic was 12:45 UTC.

[Thunder44]

This seems to be the only legitimate invest left. I didn't see any of the NHC models run this morning on the others that are still left on NRL.

[Thunder44]

:uarrow: But once is not active,the pics dont update. The last time of pic was 12:45 UTC.

You are correct, I just noticed that. But I don't understand why they would put the floater on there this morning, and then not update the images.

[chadtm80]

[BigA]

I dont understand why people are dismissing this. 1004 pressure, very favorable conditions, a lot of convection. It looks like a certain anti-development pessimism (or optimism, depending on point of view) has set in on the boards with all the false alarm invests.

[cycloneye]

I dont understand why people are dismissing this. 1004 pressure, very favorable conditions, a lot of convection. It looks like a certain anti-development pessimism (or optimism, depending on point of view) has set in on the boards with all the false alarm invests.

Exactly what I am pointing out in the thread I made in Talking Tropics forum about the lack of eufhoria for the invests this year compared with past seasons when if this same invest was up,the board would be hopping.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not giving this much chance because the atmosphere is simply not favorable

Upper level winds are only about 20 percent of the equation. Far more important is a well-defined surface low

[cycloneye]

11:30 AM TWO:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN
BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WHILE SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE FALLING WITHIN THIS AREA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS ELONGATED AND NOT YET WELL-DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/BERG

[RL3AO]

Seven consecutive days with recon being canceled for a system?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Right now the surface low is elongated but with
time it is becoming more and more concentrated and once
it becomes more concentrated with a better manifestation
in its circular characteristics we will likely see it declared a tropical
depression.

This system is clearly developing with the favorable conditions-
and the monsoonal trough moisture is providing convergence
and focuse of convection.