EX INVEST 94L Thread

[JonathanBelles]

Good assessment TBH..I generally agree with your thoughts...This is forming in the climatologically favored area of the western carribean at a time of year that has produced many storms for FL..Once we get an LLC the sky's the limit as the oceanic heat content is very high and the upper air pattern according to most globals will be very favorable next week...


*Maybe youll get your TS winds before all is said and done

I live quite near TBH, and I has TS winds from Barry. Anyway, I agree that the sky is the limit. This may break the streak of duds.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION IS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA WITH BUOYS REPORTING
NEAR 1005 MB OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1005 MB
SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 17N83W. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE NW CARIBBEAN IS A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS
ACTIVITY.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[Vortex]

As most models have this crawling...Essentially a slow drift the next 3-5 days...If it stays over the water could really spin up

[Vortex]

Pressures have generally fallen 2-4mb over the western carribean the last 12 hours. This is significant. Those who remember John Hope he always stressed this point when looking for development....

[Vortex]

1005mb impressive..At any point we should begin to see deep convection fire over the area...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Crazy83- that is what I meant- they can say at least how many died, but it was so bad, and so many were killed in floods and mudslides, it is like the 1900 Galveston storm. The exact number isn't known.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL Animation

GFDL has a 68kt hurricane before it makes landfall in Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 070027
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC SUN OCT 7 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071007 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071007 0000 071007 1200 071008 0000 071008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.2N 83.0W 17.3N 83.7W 17.7N 83.9W 18.3N 84.1W
BAMD 17.2N 83.0W 17.0N 83.8W 17.2N 84.1W 17.7N 84.3W
BAMM 17.2N 83.0W 17.0N 84.0W 17.2N 84.4W 17.5N 84.7W
LBAR 17.2N 83.0W 17.1N 83.8W 17.7N 84.6W 18.7N 85.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071009 0000 071010 0000 071011 0000 071012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 84.5W 20.5N 85.7W 21.2N 87.1W 20.9N 88.0W
BAMD 18.5N 84.6W 19.7N 85.0W 20.7N 84.8W 21.7N 83.5W
BAMM 18.3N 85.1W 19.5N 85.9W 20.1N 86.9W 20.6N 87.3W
LBAR 20.1N 86.2W 23.0N 87.3W 25.0N 86.5W 26.0N 82.4W
SHIP 52KTS 71KTS 81KTS 79KTS
DSHP 52KTS 71KTS 81KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 83.0W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 83.0W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 18.4N LONM24 = 82.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


SHIP and DSHP has a 81kt hurricane.



Many will love the LBAR track.

[Vortex]

Major shift change(not unexpected)...Now pointing towards Florida which makes sense given the trough the end of the week across the east...Also, falls in perfectly with climatology...Threat increasing IMO to Western Cuba, Keys, and points south of Tampa.

[hurricanetrack]

Forget the other current areas, 92L, TD 10, '07 "trend", etc. - this is the first legitimate area (in recent weeks) that really should be monitored. It is situated in a climatologically favored region and regime. Low-level convergence is increasing per satellite imagery; we have been observing slowly falling sfc pressures; and we have a pre-existant sfc trough in the vicinity. Additionally, shear is marginal (not inhibitive), thus providing some nice UL diffluence. Check the recent GOES-E W Atlantic visible loop. There is some low-level 850 mb vorticity in the area. The biggest issue is northerly flow, but I believe the other conducive factors may override the situation. The operational GFS (~54 hours) builds a 588 dm UL ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, thus providing favorable UL easterlies. Additionally, there are light winds at 250 mb. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty with respect to the 500 mb progged pattern (future path), and 94L's close proximity to land indicates all areas should monitor the system.

Alas- a ray of hope for those who would very much like to see a hurricane form in October. Good write up. Let's see what the coming week holds.

[Derek Ortt]

not really any upper divergence or surface convergence at the moment. The atmosphere is not that favorable for development. Can have low shear, but until we start getting the upper divergence and ESPECIALLY the surface convergence, this will remain as a broad low. If a wave were to move into the broad low, it would likely lead to a TC

[cycloneye]

Derek,SHIP,DSHP,HWRF and GFDL makes this a hurricane.What are your thoughts about this becoming as strong those models have it?.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes Derek how strong do you think this will get?
Also wxman57/Air Force Met/ Any other mets???
how strong?

Cycloneye based on the favorable conditions
I posted about earlier I think a Hurricane is Likely
and it should be watched closely.

Good assessment TBH..I generally agree with your thoughts...This is forming in the climatologically favored area of the western carribean at a time of year that has produced many storms for FL..Once we get an LLC the sky's the limit as the oceanic heat content is very high and the upper air pattern according to most globals will be very favorable next week...


*Maybe youll get your TS winds before all is said and done

I live quite near TBH, and I has TS winds from Barry. Anyway, I agree that the sky is the limit. This may break the streak of duds.

Agree fact789 I also saw some TS winds from Barry. But I am greedy and always
want a second tropical storm because I want to video record it this time.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF Animation

18z HWRF joins GFDL,SHIP and DSHP making 94L a hurricane,but look at the track.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

18z HWRF Animation

18z HWRF joins GFDL,SHIP and DSHP making 94L a hurricane,but look at the track.

Moving Towards South Florida as a Hurricane
in the last 2 frames!
Makes sense based on the trough

[chadtm80]

[hurricanetrack]

Wow that HWRF certainly has my attention. I know it is just one run and other models show Yucatan, BOC, etc. Geez, I thought I could stay away from the tropics all weekend and not obsess over it. Well, I still have tomorrow...one day at a time.

I do have a question for the bona-fide meteorologists out there:

Why does the GFDL and HWRF develop this but the GFS does not nearly as much?

Of course, anyone who thinks they know, please feel free to speak up

[Cyclone1]

This storm is beginning to remind me of the precursor to a storm that shared a name with certain cartoon character. Oh... what was her name?

Too soon to make ANY assumptions on that kinda scale, though.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

HWRF Graphically: The red line that tracks thru the Yucatan Channel

[CrazyC83]

Agree fact789 I also saw some TS winds from Barry. But I am greedy and always
want a second tropical storm because I want to video record it this time.

Be careful what you wish for since wishing for a tropical storm can lead to a major hurricane...