EX INVEST 94L Thread

[lrak]

I go away for a day and 92L becomes 94L? It was moving across the Bahamas into Cuba when I left yesterday, and I pointed out the lowering pressure in the NW Caribbean. Why the need to call it a different invest? It's the same system, pushed into the Caribbean by NE winds around the high to the northwest of 92L.

Well, at least this one isn't fighting icebergs like 95L.

so this isn't the thing people were tracking last night with the long range loop out of Key West last night?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop

The summary of this 18z GFS run is simple=Many lows,many lows,many lows.

[wxman57]

actually wxman, i think 92L dissipated and reformed into 93L, and this came out of nowhere.

I don't know, our forecast had it crossing Cuba Friday night and in the NW Caribbean today. In any case, I don't see any focus for development. Looks like scattered storms.

[hial2]

Well the X-man 57 did it again!! He called it,almost to the hour...How does he do it? Could it be that he studied for many years,and probably still owes lots of money??

Kudos to you,sir

I'm not sure what you're talking about.

I recall that you mentioned on a post 2 days ago that the western carib on Saturday was the place to look for action,remember?..I know that my "hard drive storage" is not what it used to be, but I give a 95% chance that you wrote that..

[wxman57]

Well the X-man 57 did it again!! He called it,almost to the hour...How does he do it? Could it be that he studied for many years,and probably still owes lots of money??

Kudos to you,sir

I'm not sure what you're talking about.

I recall that you mentioned on a post 2 days ago that the western carib on Saturday was the place to look for action,remember?..I know that my "hard drive storage" is not what it used to be, but I give a 95% chance that you wrote that..

Yeah, that's correct. I had 92L crossing Cuba Friday night and into the NW Caribbean today, just as the GFS was predicting.

[Vortex]

FSU MM5 12 Z

Really intensifies it...Most guidance keeps this storm in the NW Carribean/near Yucatan for the next 3-5 days then may turn NNE/NE and head towards the Eastern GOM/Florida in about 5 days in advance of a front...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

[Ptarmigan]

After Humberto,every invest has been a TS that fizzled,or system that never got off the ground.I can't remember I time when this happened.If this one becomes a named storm,I will finally wake up from the 2007 tropical duldrums

I think 2002 was like that, many weak storms formed that year.

[Ptarmigan]

I go away for a day and 92L becomes 94L? It was moving across the Bahamas into Cuba when I left yesterday, and I pointed out the lowering pressure in the NW Caribbean. Why the need to call it a different invest? It's the same system, pushed into the Caribbean by NE winds around the high to the northwest of 92L.

Well, at least this one isn't fighting icebergs like 95L.

Iceberg, right ahead!

[CrazyC83]

I have a bad feeling about this system...

[Ed Mahmoud]

After Humberto,every invest has been a TS that fizzled,or system that never got off the ground.I can't remember I time when this happened.If this one becomes a named storm,I will finally wake up from the 2007 tropical duldrums

You forgot Lorenzo did a fair amount of damage near Poza Rica. But other than that, well, yeah.

[Evil Jeremy]

I also have a bad feeling with this one.

I actually have 2 gut feelings right now. One is for a hamburger, but the other is that this could end up with a Wilma type situation. Then again, this can also dissipate and bring nothing but waves for the Islands.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Thanks to NASA's interactive satellite page,

A pseudo IR floater loop of 94L


I don't see anything that blows my socks off, yet.

[Cyclone1]

I also have a bad feeling with this one.

I actually have 2 gut feelings right now. One is for a hamburger, but the other is that this could end up with a Wilma type situation. Then again, this can also dissipate and bring nothing but waves for the Islands.

That's a new one! Never seen someone talk about hamburgers and hurricanes at once like that!

XD

[Ed Mahmoud]

I also have a bad feeling with this one.

I actually have 2 gut feelings right now. One is for a hamburger, but the other is that this could end up with a Wilma type situation. Then again, this can also dissipate and bring nothing but waves for the Islands.

Not a big deal, but the ultimate October in the Caribbean w/o overwhelmingly strong steering nightmare scenario is Mitch. I don't think they know exactly how many died, the mudslides completely covered some towns.

[Dean4Storms]

Until we see some persistant concentrated convection I'm not falling for this one. Hardly any of the models do anything with it and we've seen this play too many times of late. If it does as I stated above and is here come Monday I'll take another look.

[CrazyC83]

I also have a bad feeling with this one.

I actually have 2 gut feelings right now. One is for a hamburger, but the other is that this could end up with a Wilma type situation. Then again, this can also dissipate and bring nothing but waves for the Islands.

Not a big deal, but the ultimate October in the Caribbean w/o overwhelmingly strong steering nightmare scenario is Mitch. I don't think they know exactly how many died, the mudslides completely covered some towns.

Over 11,000 people died in Mitch.

[lrak]

gut feelings sometimes give me the chills.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L



INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 6



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 17.5 83.4 220./ 4.1

6 17.1 83.9 241./ 6.4

12 17.1 84.2 264./ 2.8

18 17.1 85.0 269./ 7.3

24 17.1 85.2 281./ 2.4

30 17.5 84.9 45./ 4.3

36 17.9 84.8 14./ 4.6

42 18.5 84.9 352./ 5.8

48 19.3 85.2 339./ 8.3

54 19.6 85.8 297./ 6.7

60 19.7 86.2 284./ 3.8

66 20.2 86.6 325./ 6.1

72 20.5 87.4 289./ 8.0

78 20.2 87.9 246./ 5.3

84 20.2 88.1 261./ 1.7

90 20.4 88.4 296./ 3.9

96 20.4 88.7 275./ 2.2

102 20.3 89.0 254./ 2.7

108 20.5 89.3 292./ 3.1

114 20.4 89.8 267./ 4.9

120 20.0 90.0 214./ 4.4

126 19.8 90.0 182./ 2.9


It has 94L crawling towards Yucatan Peninsula.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Conditions look favorable for development with a high
to the north and steering currents are very weak. I expect
this area with a ton of moisture and ocean heat content
similar to that of 2005 to undergo rapid intensification once
it becomes more concentrated.

I expect it to meander in the weak steering currents until
a strong trough next week accelerates whatever becomes
of it Northeast towards Florida.

This situation is very similar to the one that produced Wilma.
Location and possible path are very similar, heat content is
very similar, and the monsoon trough origin of moisture
and convection is very similar.

This needs to be watched very closely by central america
and the SE US, especially florida, where climatology and this
monster trough on its way for next week give the highest
threat to Florida.
Central America is also at a highest threat.

Oh sorry about how I forgot the disclaimer

[Vortex]

Good assessment TBH..I generally agree with your thoughts...This is forming in the climatologically favored area of the western carribean at a time of year that has produced many storms for FL..Once we get an LLC the sky's the limit as the oceanic heat content is very high and the upper air pattern according to most globals will be very favorable next week...


*Maybe youll get your TS winds before all is said and done