EX INVEST 94L Thread

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 32
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re:

#421 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 09, 2007 3:18 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:Yep, goner.

Looks like 95 could be trying to form out in tropical Atlantic, so there's still something going on.

Until then, wake me up when we get something spinning.


Maybe 96L, b/c 95L is a long goner!!!

Image

A lot more convection and spiral bands are evident.
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3183
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#422 Postby fci » Tue Oct 09, 2007 3:31 pm

Is the podium ready for the announcement?
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3183
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: INVEST 94L Models Thread

#423 Postby fci » Tue Oct 09, 2007 3:32 pm

BigA wrote:That's what I meant when I said it was only for the record. I dont put much faith at all in it.


Which is MORE than I do.
:lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18838
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#424 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 09, 2007 3:37 pm

fci wrote:Is the podium ready for the announcement?


Bones said 94L looks better than it ever has. Moving over land may actually help the convection to get going. Weak systems like this (or Erin) are often unaffected and even enhanced by moving inland. It'll likely drift/spin around the Yucatan for days. But if it slips offshore it could become a TD rather quickly. So he's going to sit back and watch for a few days.
Last edited by wxman57 on Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

HurricaneRobert
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 812
Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm

Re: INVEST 94L : NW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#425 Postby HurricaneRobert » Tue Oct 09, 2007 3:43 pm

Where is this 95L?
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16099
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: INVEST 94L : NW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#426 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 09, 2007 3:45 pm

HurricaneRobert wrote:Where is this 95L?


It was an invest in the North Atlantic last week. Not sure why they are talking about it here.
0 likes   

User avatar
Joshs
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 18
Age: 34
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 2:49 pm

#427 Postby Joshs » Tue Oct 09, 2007 3:46 pm

hello
0 likes   

HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2398
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:

#428 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:08 pm

I think wxman57 was talking about Invest 94L (Yucatan). Any next invest will be 96L because 95L was the low pressure system north of the Azores a couple of days ago, as RL3AO already stated.
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

Re: INVEST 94L : NW Caribbean : 5:30 PM TWO Shortly

#429 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:09 pm

054
ABNT20 KNHC 092105
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
CHETUMAL MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT
EXPECTED...IT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116684
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 94L Models Thread

#430 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:20 pm

18z NAM Loop

For those who always look at the NAM model,here is the 18z run.
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5454
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: INVEST 94L : NW Caribbean : 5:30 PM TWO at page 17

#431 Postby MGC » Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:32 pm

Until the mid level circulation dissipates 94L must be closely monitored. All it has to do is move off the coast and then as Emeril might say "BAMB!" Circulations have been known to linger over land for days only to move off the coast and develope. 94L is far from dead......MGC
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116684
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 94L : NW Caribbean : 5:30 PM TWO at page 17

#432 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:44 pm

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCM.html

In Chetumal,winds are from the NNW,which means the low center is North of that area.
0 likes   

User avatar
pman
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 6
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2007 9:17 pm
Location: Eden Prairie, MN
Contact:

Re: INVEST 94L : NW Caribbean : 5:30 PM TWO at page 17

#433 Postby pman » Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:47 pm

Yea, it'll have a chance as long as it keeps that circulation as was said before.

What matters now mostly is the track and speed, as if some of the model runs verify that take it quickly northwest over the Yucatan, it'll be looking good. And it's got to make it across far enough north where it's not going to be weakened by land interactions with MX on its south side once in the Bay of Campeche.
0 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5415
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: INVEST 94L Models Thread

#434 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 09, 2007 5:12 pm

fci wrote:
BigA wrote:For the record, and really only for the record, the CMC has this move north off the Yucatan in a couple days and become a strong TS in the central GOM. The CMC also shows howling shear across the gulf at this time. These two outcomes appear incompatible.http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi ... =Animation


BigA:
I can't speak for prior history but this season the CMC has been worthless.
We have had the CMC put Hurricanes into South Florida repeatedly in 2007.
I remember reading where one of the Pro Mets said that it was not a Tropics model and not to pay any real attention to it.

wxman 57 said no cmc or nam
ortt said no euro
jlauderdal says no lbar
0 likes   

User avatar
eaglegirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 60
Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2007 10:14 am
Location: Tallahassee, FL
Contact:

#435 Postby eaglegirl » Tue Oct 09, 2007 5:33 pm

This evening, our local news weatherman just said that the coming cold front will be strong and low enough to pick up something and pull it north... if there is something in the area of the gulf (big if).
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116684
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 94L : NW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#436 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2007 5:40 pm

From the Key West AFD:

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UKMET
REVEAL A MINOR LOW LEVEL (1000-850 MB) UNDULATION WILL MIGRATE FROM
THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS OUR REGION. GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTING THIS IMPULSE IN THE BAHAMAS...WILL
BUMP UP POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A
LIGHT AND BACKING WIND PROFILE MAY ALLOW CLOUD LINE FORMATION...BUT
INSOLATION IS WEAKENING BY THE DAY. THEREAFTER...WITHIN THIS
TROUGH...BOTH GFS AND UKMET INDICATE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD PULLING SOME DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH
LYING FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LINGERS NEARBY. DUE TO
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL INCONSISTENCY...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN THE AXIS OF CONFLUENCE WILL PROMPT
ABOVE NORMAL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... discussion
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116684
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 94L : NW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#437 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2007 7:14 pm

09/2345 UTC 19.0N 88.4W OVERLAND 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116684
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: INVEST 94L : NW Caribbean : Discussions & Images

#438 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2007 7:24 pm

8:05 PM TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1004 MB NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WAS NEAR 18.5N 87.5W...IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
BANCO CHINCHORRO ABOUT 15 NM EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 09/1800 UTC. THE LOW CENTER SINCE THEN HAS MOVED
INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ABOUT
60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. THIS LOW CENTER
IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE EVEN THOUGH
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN
BELIZE...AND IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
17N TO 22N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WATERS AND INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27561
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#439 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 09, 2007 7:40 pm

If it gets back over water, it could redevelop though?
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9969
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: INVEST 94L Models Thread

#440 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 09, 2007 7:48 pm

NAM has it initialized too far east.
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests