EX INVEST 94L Thread

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: EX INVEST 94L Thread

#461 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:47 am

Frank2 wrote:That sounds like more "JB fiction" to me - hopefully, the season has ended...

I'll never understand that man - it makes me wonder how he's received at professional conferences...


The GFS keeps sort of low pressure down there through the next week, and toward the end of the period, an area of weather, not really reflected at the surface, but seen in 850 mb fields, and as an area of heavy rain, comes out of the BoC and heads for the Florida Panhandle.
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Re: EX INVEST 94L Thread

#462 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:25 pm

Image

Still a good circulation inside Yucatan.
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Re: INVEST 94L : Yucatan Peninsula : Discussions & Images

#463 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:31 pm

BigA wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Yes, it doesn't look like 94L will survive being over land for a few days. But I think there's a good chance a TC will form in the western Caribbean over the next 10 days. Florida is definitely not out of the woods yet for a possible landfall


I know this is sort of speculation, but what energy could this TC come from? The covection west of Jamaica? The wave east of the Lesser Antilles?

Much thanks.


Yes, and yes. The trof axis over the western and central Caribbean combined with favorable winds aloft is a perfect setup for late-season development in the western Caribbean. Any tropical wave (like the one in the eastern Caribbean) could be the trigger for development. I think it's likely that something will spin up there over the next week.
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Re: EX INVEST 94L Thread

#464 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 10, 2007 1:21 pm

Wxman I agree. Florida is not out of the woods.

Also look at 94L....it is starting to regenerate more over water now...

something to keep an eye on for sure:
Image
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#465 Postby fci » Wed Oct 10, 2007 1:44 pm

Jeff Masters was still not burying 94L this morning under the headline:
A sleeping giant: 94L
"A large low pressure system (94L) has moved inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and is bringing heavy rain to Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. These heavy rains can be viewed on Cancun radar. Satellite loops and the steering flow product from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group (Figure 1) show the large size of this circulation nicely. This is an unusually large and deep low pressure system, and it will take several days for it to spin down. Most of the computer models are indicating that the center will remain over land and 94L will eventually die. However, the GFDL model continues to show the possibility that the center of 94L will drift back into the Western Caribbean, or into the Southern Gulf of Mexico, allowing 94L to intensify into a tropical storm. Considering the huge amount of atmosphere 94L has put into motion, it would not be a surprise to see some of that spin still remaining 3-4 days from now, and we will have to watch this system until that spin is gone. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below for the next 2-3 days over the Yucatan."

This is from his Weather Underground blog:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200710
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#466 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:49 pm

I still think this could be a medium-term threat, since it could very well push back or reform over the Caribbean.
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