INVEST 95L : North of the Azores - Gone from NRL

[RL3AO]

So they will update at 5 PM?

Not sure.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... pinvestmap

[Cyclone1]

Soo... ya know... in case ya missed it.

DUDE! THIS IS FREAKISHLY FAR NORTH!!!

Way further north than Vince ever was.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It looks like a subtropical storm and is intense as
one too.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WOW, this would be the farthest northeast system in history to be upgraded if it is.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now thats something you don't see every day.

[Tstormwatcher]

Wow, that would be one heck of a loop if it happened.

[KWT]

Wow this is interesting though it should be noted the UKMO fax charts suggests this is has Baroclinic system:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif

It may not matter much as a huge low is going to absorb in the next 24-36hrs anyway...however if it does get upgraded this makes things very interesting for Europe, it may possible for a subtropical cyclone to hit places even further north then Vince did.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 506/8.html

It is tropical.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this is interesting though it should be noted the UKMO fax charts suggests this is has Baroclinic system:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif

It may not matter much as a huge low is going to absorb in the next 24-36hrs anyway...however if it does get upgraded this makes things very interesting for Europe, it may possible for a subtropical cyclone to hit places even further north then Vince did.

South America's MET center thought the south Atlantic hurricane of 2004 was to.

[Brent]

I like the NOGAPS...



and ummmm... WHOA. This is very far to the NE.

[KWT]

It does look subtropical...I wonder how many other such systems have been missed in the past, quite a few NE Atlantic systems have formed in the Autumn over the past 4 years when you think back...
No offense Matt but I think the UK met office are better then Brazil's!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It does look subtropical...I wonder how many other such systems have been missed in the past, quite a few NE Atlantic systems have formed in the Autumn over the past 4 years when you think back...
No offense Matt but I think the UK met office are better then Brazil's!

This is clearly warm core. Even so the sst's would say other wise. I think it has to do with temperature from lower leves to higher levels of the Atmosphere like derek was talking about.

[chadtm80]

I like the NOGAPS...



and ummmm... WHOA. This is very far to the NE.

Actually that is the LBAR.. The dark orange is always the LBAR.. Its just not on the key.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like a subtropical system. It is listed has having 50 mph winds. If so, it would be like Vince, but even more north. It would be Noel.

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

That is a model analysis.

Suggesting that a TC is tropical because a model says so without any observations is extremely foolish an is plain bad science! It carries as much weight as a feather regarding whether this is really tropical. We either need some obs or an AMSU pass to determine if it really is tropical or subtropical

[KWT]

Yeah the same thing helped to support Vince in 05 I believe Matt, I believe such a process explains why a fair few systems have been able to form so far NE of the basin in autumn.
I'm still not sure its as tropical as you make out though...

[HURAKAN]

Maybe a post-season upgrade because 5 PM was probably the only train. Lets see how it looks at 11 PM.



Side note: The system affecting central Italy continues to catch my attention!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok derek, is there is real data to support this as tropical?

Here is a quickscat.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas30.png

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I can't believe this isn't STS Noel
Hopefully they upgrade by 11.