Southwest IO: Tropical Disturbance 01R (91S)

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#21 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 11, 2007 8:42 pm

PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF NEAR GALE

NEAR GALE FORCE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1004 HPA CENTERED AT 0000 UTC NEAR 9.0S 60.8E,

WINDS 15-20 KNOTS NEAR CENTRE REACHING 25-30 KT IN SOUTH THAT IS
IN AREA BOUNDED BY LATITUDES 10S TO 16S AND LONGITUDES 55E TO 70E.
ROUGH TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS EXITS WITH LOCALLY SQUALLY WEATHER.


T.O.O: 12/0040UTC.
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#22 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:26 am

WTIO21 FMEE 120619
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 12/10/2007 A 0600 UTC.
NUMERO: 001/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVERTISSEMENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 12/10/2007 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 1 1005 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.7S / 60.2E
(NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0600 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 250 MN DU CENTRE PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-OUEST.

CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/25 KT ET MER ET MER AGITEE A FORTE AUTOUR
DU CENTRE. LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SOUFFLENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 12/10/2007 A 18 UTC:
10.5S / 58.5E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE.
A 24H POUR LE 13/10/2007 A 06 UTC:
11.0S / 56.7E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
CE PREMIER SYSTEME TROPICAL DE LA SAISON 2007-2008, ENCORE MAL DEFINI, A
UN FAIBLE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION.
LE CENTRE DE LA CIRCULATION EST EXPOSE A L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE METEOSAT,
SITUE EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE L'AMAS DE CONVECTION PROFONDE (ACTIVITE
ORAGEUSE).

A CE STADE, CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS.

In English:

WTIO20 FMEE 120619
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 12/10/2007 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/01 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 12/10/2007 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 1005 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 60.2E
(NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT
0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS AROUND THE
CENTER. THE STRONGEST WINDS EXIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/10/12 AT 18 UTC:
10.5S / 58.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H, VALID 2007/10/13 AT 06 UTC:
11.0S / 56.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS FIRST TROPICAL LOW OF THE 2007-2008 SEASON, STILL POORLY ORGANIZED,
HAS A WEAK POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE CENTER OF THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED ON THE VISIBLE
METEOSAT IMAGERY, LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION
CLUSTER (THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY).

AT THIS INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.
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#23 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:39 am

WTIO30 FMEE 120626

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/1/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2007/10/12 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 60.2E
(NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/10/12 18 UTC: 10.5S/58.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/10/13 06 UTC: 11.0S/56.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CI=T=2.0-
THIS FIRST TROPICAL LOW OF THE 2007-2008 SEASON, STILL POORLY ORGANIZED,
HAS A WEAK POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.
THE CENTER OF THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED ON THE VISIBLE
METEOSAT IMAGERY, LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION
CLUSTER (THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY).

AT THIS INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.
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Re: Southwest IO: Tropical Disturbance 01R (91S)

#24 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:44 am

12/0230 UTC 10.5S 59.6E T2.0/2.0 91S -- South Indian Ocean
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#25 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 12, 2007 7:29 am

WTIO21 FMEE 121218
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 12/10/2007 A 1200 UTC.
NUMERO: 002/01 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVERTISSEMENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 12/10/2007 A 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENE: ZONE PERTURBEE 1 1005 HPA
POSITION: 10.6S / 60.2E
(DIX DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST) A 1200 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 250 MN DU CENTRE PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-OUEST.

CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/25 KT ET MER ET MER AGITEE A FORTE AUTOUR
DU CENTRE. LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SOUFFLENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 13/10/2007 A 00 UTC:
11.2S / 58.6E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE.
A 24H POUR LE 13/10/2007 A 12 UTC:
11.5S / 56.9E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
PLUSIEURS MINIMA (CENTRES) COEXISTENT. LE CENTRE SUIVI DANS CE BULLETIN
EST CELUI DE LA CIRCULATION GLOBALE (BARYCENTRE DES DIFFERENTS MINIMA),
ET NE CORRESPOND PAS A UN MINIMUN REEL, MAIS EST LE PLUS SIGNIFICATIF
POUR SUIVRE LE DEPLACEMENT DE L'ENSEMBLE DE LA CIRCULATION.


A CE STADE, CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS.

Emphasis mine, this is interesting. There are multiple low-level centres within the system.
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#26 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 12, 2007 7:44 am

Here's the full English bulletin:

WTIO30 FMEE 121242

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/1/20072008
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1

2.A POSITION 2007/10/12 AT 1200 UTC :
10.6S / 60.2E
(TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/10/13 00 UTC: 11.2S/58.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/10/13 12 UTC: 11.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CI=T=2.0-
THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND HAS A WEAK POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION.

VISIBLE IMAGERY METEOSAT BETWEEN 0700Z AND 0900Z CLEARLY SHOW TWO LOWS,
VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER, TURNING ONE AROUND THE OTHER, EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THAT CONFIRMS THE WEAK INTENSITY OF
THIS SYSTEM, DESPITE A DEEP CONVECTION WICH CAN APPEAR WELL ORGANIZED ON
SOME IMAGES.

THE CENTER INDICATED IN THIS BULLETIN IS THE GRAVITY CENTER OF THOSE TWO
LOWS, WICH IS NOT A REAL LOW, BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TO FOLLOW THE
GLOBAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ONE IS TRACKING TOWARDS SST BELOW 26.5°c
, WICH SHOULD INHIBIT ITS INTENSIFICATION. ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MODERATLY GOOD (GOOD LOWLEVEL INFLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ONLY IN
THE POLAR PART).

THE GLOBAL SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, WITHOUT DEEPENING
SIGNIFICANTLY.

AT THIS INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.
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#27 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 12, 2007 12:10 pm

What does the "R" mean?
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Re:

#28 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 12, 2007 12:16 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What does the "R" mean?


I think it is for RSMC Réunion.
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#29 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Oct 12, 2007 12:23 pm

the R is like the L for the Atlantic
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Re:

#30 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 12, 2007 1:43 pm

fact789 wrote:the R is like the L for the Atlantic


No. Because this would be 01S if the JTWC initiates advisories.
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 12, 2007 2:07 pm

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Looks pretty good.
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Re: Re:

#32 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:50 pm

RL3AO wrote:
fact789 wrote:the R is like the L for the Atlantic


No. Because this would be 01S if the JTWC initiates advisories.


That's correct, it would be 01S as S is the South Indian Ocean.

The letters are (I believe):

A - Arabian Sea
B - Bay of Bengal
C - Central Pacific
E - Eastern Pacific
L - North Atlantic
M - Mediterranean Sea (rare)
P - Southwest Pacific
Q - South Atlantic (rare)
S - Southern Indian
W - Western Pacific
? - Southeast Pacific (rare)
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#33 Postby HenkL » Fri Oct 12, 2007 5:57 pm

I don't know about the Q for the South Atlantic. Catarina/Aldonça in 2004 was named 01T by the British MetOffice (although NRL named it 01L).
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#34 Postby Coredesat » Fri Oct 12, 2007 6:48 pm

The South Atlantic doesn't "officially" have any letters. NRL assigned the disturbance in 2006 "90Q" because "90L" would have caused confusion. 90T was assigned by the UKMO.

M is also not a letter for anything, either, unless there's evidence of a XXM designation ever being used. The SE Pacific simply doesn't have a letter, and I imagine a crossover system being warned on by the JTWC would retain the P suffix.

The only official letters outside the Atlantic, EPAC, and CPAC basins are R (Reunion - SW Indian) and F (Fiji - South Pacific).
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#35 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 12, 2007 7:38 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 130013

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/1/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2007/10/13 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 58.4E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/10/13 12 UTC: 11.0S/56.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/10/14 00 UTC: 11.0S/55.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2007/10/14 12 UTC: 10.6S/53.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2007/10/15 00 UTC: 10.0S/52.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CI=T=2.0

THE MAIN CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION
WICH HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN HIGH LEVEL (GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW),
BUT NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN LOW LEVEL : GOOD LOW LEVEL
TRADEWINDS INFLOWS, BUT NO EQUATORWARDS WIND INFLOW, AND ENERGETIC
CONDITIONS LIMITATED
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER SEAS WITH SST OF 26.5°c, WICH IS JUST
THE MINIMAL THRESHOLD FOR DEVELOPMENT OR PERSISTENCE OF A TROPICAL LOW.

THE LOW HAS CURVED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS,
THEN WESTNORTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY.
IT SHOULD COME THE CLOSEST TO AGALEGA (WHERE PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH
DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LOW)DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THIS INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.
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#36 Postby Coredesat » Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:49 pm

The lack of a TCFA is baffling:

142
TPXS10 PGTW 130030

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE W OF DIEGO GARCIA

B. 12/2330Z

C. 11.7S/9

D. 59.0E/4

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (12/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVTN WRAPS .55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

SCANLIN

-----

12/2030 UTC 10.9S 59.2E T2.5/2.5 91S -- South Indian Ocean
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Re: Southwest IO: Tropical Disturbance 01R (91S)

#37 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 12, 2007 9:09 pm

I agree, 2.5 should be enough to produce at least a TCFA.
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Re: Southwest IO: Tropical Disturbance 01R (91S)

#38 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:46 pm

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#39 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 13, 2007 1:30 am

WTIO30 FMEE 130611

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/1/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2007/10/13 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9S / 57.5E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/10/13 18 UTC: 11.2S/55.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/10/14 06 UTC: 10.3S/52.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2007/10/14 18 UTC: 09.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2007/10/15 06 UTC: 08.9S/49.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2007/10/15 18 UTC: 08.3S/48.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2007/10/16 06 UTC: 07.9S/46.3E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CI=T=2.0
SYSTEM REMAINS POOR ORGANIZED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CLEARLY
WEAKENED WITHIN THE RECENT PAST HOURS.
SEVERAL CENTERS MAY POSSIBLE, THE MENTIONNED ONE IS SUPPOSED TO BE
THE
MAIN.
IT IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION WICH HAS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN HIGH LEVEL (GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW), BUT
NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN LOW LEVEL : GOOD LOW LEVEL
TRADEWINDS INFLOWS, BUT NO EQUATORWARDS WIND INFLOW, AND ENERGETIC
CONDITIONS LIMITATED BECAUSE THE S
YSTEM IS TRACKING OVER SEAS WITH SST OF 26.5°C, WICH IS JUST THE
MINIMAL
THRESHOLD FOR DEVELOPMENT OR PERSISTENCE OF A TROPICAL LOW.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE
NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
THEN
WESTNORTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY.
IT SHOULD COME THE CLOSEST TO AGALEGA (WHERE PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER
HIGH
DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LOW)DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THIS INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=

Image
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Re: Southwest IO: Tropical Disturbance 01R (91S)

#40 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 13, 2007 7:37 am

Last advisory issued unless it redevelops.

WTIO30 FMEE 131217

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/1/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2007/10/13 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2S / 56.4E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/10/14 00 UTC: 10.5S/54.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/10/14 12 UTC: 09.5S/52.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2007/10/15 00 UTC: 09.3S/50.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
48H: 2007/10/15 12 UTC: 08.3S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2007/10/16 00 UTC: 06.9S/45.8E DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 AND CI=2.0
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER FAVORABLE (GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR), BUT LINKED TO A LACK OF EQUATORWARD LOW
LEVEL INFLOW AND LIMITATED ENERGETIC CONDITIONS (SST AROUND 26.0/26.5 C,
CF BUOY 56556 / 26.3 C AT 0820UTC) , DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
CLEARLY WEAKENED
SINCE THE END OF THE NIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED.
MEASURED MSLP AT 0900UTC AT AGALEGA 1008.1HPA (WHEN THE CENTER WAS
CLOSEST TO AGALAGA AT ABOUT 65KM IN ITS SOUTH) CONFIRMS 1005 HPA NEAR THE
CENTER ESTIMATED BY OUR RSMC.
LLCC IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.


LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION BUT IT
REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED (MARINE BULLETIN FQIO25 FMEE AND BULLETIN FOR
CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AWIO20 FMEE)
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