Tropical Depression 15 : Atlantic : Discussions & Images

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#21 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:53 pm

SHIP 26KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS

Someone needs to go see if SHIPS is okay. I've never seen it this depressed before.
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Re: INVEST 96L : NorthCentral Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#22 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:53 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
cycloneye wrote:11/1145 UTC 29.8N 52.6W T1.5/1.5 96L


Upgrade at 4:45 AST?


It's definitely weaker/less organized than it was 6 hours ago before the shear knocked all the convection away from the center. No reason to upgrade now. Shear is increasing, it's merging with a front. Why bother?
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Re: INVEST 96L : NorthCentral Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#23 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:
cycloneye wrote:11/1145 UTC 29.8N 52.6W T1.5/1.5 96L


Upgrade at 4:45 AST?


It's definitely weaker/less organized than it was 6 hours ago before the shear knocked all the convection away from the center. No reason to upgrade now. Shear is increasing, it's merging with a front. Why bother?


I seem to remember another 96L this year that had the same problem. Two actually.

All of the 96L's this year have been extremely borderline.
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:27 pm

Image

Looks pretty good. Good enough to get upgraded in my opinion.
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#25 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:30 pm

Looks like a depression to me. Pretty solid convection that covers most if not all of the LLC.
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:32 pm

96L:
Image

Zeta:
Image

Hmm, something is wrong here!
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Re: INVEST 96L : NorthCentral Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:43 pm

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#28 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:44 pm

Welcome (S)TD 15.
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#29 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:52 pm

Not bad! Didn't think they'd call it
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Re: INVEST 96L : NorthCentral Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#30 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL has it as NONAME.



Recent new burst of convection near the center, probably was the pushing point. Also the system looks like it made more of a turn to E or ENE in the past few hours.
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#31 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:59 pm

Wow! I didnt think they would do anything with this either, (I should start using reverse psychology :) )
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#32 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:04 pm

could become a TS later tonight or tomorrow morning

I still feel confident that we will finish with 15-20 storms... now, this may mean 2-7 of this type of storm though
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Re: INVEST 96L : NorthCentral Atlantic : (Noname at NRL)

#33 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:10 pm

Wow, this is a depression and 95L was not? And yesterday there was a closed circulation with convection around a center near the canaries...
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Re: INVEST 96L : NorthCentral Atlantic : (Noname at NRL)

#34 Postby HurricaneRobert » Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:10 pm

Noel always seems like a good name for a North Atlantic storm.
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Re: INVEST 96L : NorthCentral Atlantic : (Noname at NRL)

#35 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:17 pm

Heaviest convection is now about 90 miles ENE of the exposed LLC now as shear increases. It was a TD this morning (or STD). Should have been named then. Now that it's less organized, why bother with it?
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Tropical Depression 15 : Atlantic : Advisories=Last Advisory

#36 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:32 pm

112030
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152007
2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 50.5W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 50.5W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 51.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.1N 49.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.0N 48.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 47.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 50.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WWWW

WTNT35 KNHC 112034
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152007
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST OR ABOUT
860 MILES...1380 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...25
KM/HR. AN EASTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...30.1 N...50.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

112034
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152007
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EAST OF BERMUDA HAS
BEEN MAINTAINING STEADY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT
12 HOURS OR SO...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT
18Z HAVE RISEN TO T1.5. ON THIS BASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN. AN ASCAT PASS NEAR 14Z SUGGESTS THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/14. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
AN UPPER LOW THAT IS PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
REPLACED BY EVEN STRONGER NORTHERLIES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
IN THIS STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONNECTION THE CENTER MAINTAINS WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY
SEPARATED THE CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH OF COURSE
HASN'T HAPPENED YET. AS A RESULT...MY FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. BEFORE
TOO LONG...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD PREVAIL...LEAVING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND TO MEANDER UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE AREA IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.

WITH STRONG SHEAR FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE CYCLONE...LITTLE OR
NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICICAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE. THE GFDL DOES BRING
THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH...BUT THERE IS ONLY A VERY SHORT
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO OCCUR.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S
REMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO
THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 30.1N 50.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 30.1N 49.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 30.0N 48.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 30.0N 48.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 47.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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Re:

#37 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:32 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:could become a TS later tonight or tomorrow morning

I still feel confident that we will finish with 15-20 storms... now, this may mean 2-7 of this type of storm though


Wow 20? First pro met I've heard go over 17. It's kinda nice. But yeah I agree... 17-21 seems about right for me. (At that point, NO ONE is allowed to use the words 2007 and dud in the same sentence.)
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Re: Tropical Depression 15 : Atlantic : Discussions & Images

#38 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:41 pm

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S
REMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO
THIS SYSTEM.


Interesting paragraph about what NHC thinks about the dead Karen playing a roll with this.
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#39 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:44 pm

WOW! So this COULD be Karen reborn? Very interesting...

Oh well, onward to Noel! Time to move on.
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Re:

#40 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:45 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:WOW! So this COULD be Karen reborn? Very interesting...

Oh well, onward to Noel! Time to move on.


That is if this does become Noel - not a sure thing at this point.
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