Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

[cycloneye]

For those who dont know this,the name that this system will have when it is classified as a Tropical Storm will be Kiko.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Looks more like a tropical storm now with that deep convection...

[Aslkahuna]

I don't know what the ACE numbers are, but WPAC is going to have to work really hard the next 16 days to end up October with 27 warned systems which is the climo average for the Basin at the end of October. In fact, we aren't even at the climo average for the end of September yet.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt

[Chacor]

ATCF still shows a 30 kt TD.

[HurricaneRobert]

Is this one 94L?

[CrazyC83]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt

[Cyclenall]

Someone look at the VIS loop on this thing, it's comical to watch it fight the shear . The LLC is spinning pretty fast as if it's going nuts or something. I almost laughed for real watching it.

There is a small burst of new convection trying to pop up near the LLC but annoying shear has to continue the end of 2007 TC "curse".

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 151844
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1844 UTC MON OCT 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (EP152007) 20071015 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071015 1800 071016 0600 071016 1800 071017 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 108.7W 15.5N 108.8W 15.6N 109.3W 15.7N 109.7W
BAMD 15.1N 108.7W 15.2N 109.5W 15.3N 110.8W 15.2N 112.2W
BAMM 15.1N 108.7W 15.3N 109.1W 15.5N 109.8W 15.6N 110.5W
LBAR 15.1N 108.7W 15.0N 108.9W 15.1N 109.7W 15.4N 110.8W
SHIP 30KTS 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071017 1800 071018 1800 071019 1800 071020 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 110.5W 16.1N 112.1W 15.9N 113.4W 15.8N 114.7W
BAMD 14.8N 113.9W 14.5N 117.2W 14.6N 119.9W 14.7N 122.3W
BAMM 15.5N 111.4W 15.7N 113.7W 15.9N 115.5W 16.1N 117.7W
LBAR 15.7N 112.1W 16.4N 115.3W 17.8N 119.2W 18.9N 122.9W
SHIP 37KTS 40KTS 47KTS 47KTS
DSHP 37KTS 40KTS 47KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 108.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 108.7W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 108.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Still a TD.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 152039
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2007

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...EXPOSING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY WELL-DEFINED.
A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT AROUND 1330Z PROVIDED SEEMINGLY RELIABLE
WIND RETRIEVALS OF 25-30 KT...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE THAT WERE LIKELY INFLATED BY THE CONVECTION AT THE TIME.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
DATA. THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
PERSIST AT ROUGHLY ITS CURRENT MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS...SO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. MOST OF THE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES TOO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
GIVEN HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING IN THE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY DURING
THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE OBVIOUSLY WEAK...AND
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A
WEAK AND NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO RESPOND...AND THERE
ARE NO LOW-LEVEL STEERING MECHANISMS IN PLAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS GO IN ALL KINDS OF DIRECTIONS. SOME OF THEM...INCLUDING THE
GFS...FORECAST NO SIGNIFICANT NET MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SUPPORTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.1N 108.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 15.1N 108.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 15.1N 108.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 15.1N 108.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.1N 108.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Cyclenall]

Check out the track!:

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml
(Frame 4 of the loop)

I have NEVER seen a track like this from the NHC. That must be the slowest moving TC forecast I have ever seen. This is out to 120 hours!! It's current speed is 0 mph right now .

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... d=32&size=

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 160240
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2007

CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED WITH THE DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A SINGLE RAGGED BAND ABOUT 120 NMI TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...WITH SMALL AND BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 18Z...AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER...THE
MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS IT APPEARS
THAT THE MEAN CENTER HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND ARE CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE CYCLONIC
GYRE AT LOW LEVELS AND MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER-LEVELS.
THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE NET FLOW ACROSS THE CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE EASTERLY SHEAR...THE TRACK OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION
THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN NEAR ITS CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SPREAD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...A COMMON THEME IS A
CONTINUATION OF A CYCLONIC LOOP...ENDING WITH SOME NET WESTWARD
MOTION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...ALSO SHOWS A SMALL LOOP...BUT WITH
LITTLE NET DISPLACEMENT OVER THE FIVE DAY PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION VERY
CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...AND IS NOT
FAR FROM THE STABLE STRATO-CUMULUS FIELD TO THE WEST AND NORTH.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ABOUT HOW THE
UPPER EASTERLIES ARE GOING TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
THE GFS MAINTAINING THE SHEAR...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET LESSEN IT
SOMEWHAT. BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL BRING THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 50
KT...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
FOLLOWS THE GFS/SHIPS SCENARIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 14.7N 109.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 14.7N 109.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.5N 108.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.8N 108.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 14.9N 108.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 15.2N 109.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 15.5N 110.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160834
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION OF A BROKEN BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CLUSTER REMAINS SOMEWHAT
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER HOWEVER. A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT
THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.

AN SSM/I OVERPASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO WAS HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE
CENTER POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
DRIFT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS PRACTICALLY STATIONARY. THE
DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE WITH
VERY WEAK...OR NO...MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING. THE GFS DOES BUILD
A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY NOT
BE ABLE TO ESCAPE FROM THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN WHICH
IT IS NOW EMBEDDED. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE
DIVERSIFIED. THE ECMWF AND U.K. MET. OFFICE MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST IN 5 DAYS WHILE OTHER MODELS MOVE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD...NORTHWESTWARD...OR WESTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS A
SMALL LOOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOLLOWED BY A VERY SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
THE GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS...ALBEIT NOT AS FAST.

AN EASTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS EXISTS NOT FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS...
INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
ADVISORY PACKAGES. THIS IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF PREDICTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 14.4N 108.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 14.3N 108.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 108.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 14.6N 108.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 14.7N 108.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

16/1200 UTC 14.3N 109.1W T3.0/3.0 15E -- East Pacific Ocean

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt

Hello Kiko?

[HURAKAN]

148
WHXX01 KMIA 161331
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1331 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO (EP152007) 20071016 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071016 1200 071017 0000 071017 1200 071018 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 108.9W 14.9N 109.1W 15.1N 109.3W 15.4N 109.7W
BAMD 14.7N 108.9W 15.0N 109.9W 15.1N 111.1W 15.1N 112.7W
BAMM 14.7N 108.9W 14.9N 109.2W 15.1N 109.8W 15.3N 110.6W
LBAR 14.7N 108.9W 14.8N 109.4W 15.2N 110.3W 15.8N 111.5W
SHIP 35KTS 35KTS 39KTS 39KTS
DSHP 35KTS 35KTS 39KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071018 1200 071019 1200 071020 1200 071021 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 110.3W 16.2N 111.6W 16.7N 112.8W 16.2N 113.8W
BAMD 15.4N 114.4W 15.9N 117.5W 16.1N 119.7W 15.6N 121.7W
BAMM 15.8N 111.7W 16.4N 113.7W 16.6N 115.5W 15.3N 116.6W
LBAR 16.5N 113.1W 17.7N 116.4W 19.3N 118.9W 20.3N 119.8W
SHIP 39KTS 42KTS 45KTS 48KTS
DSHP 39KTS 42KTS 45KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 108.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 108.9W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 108.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

072
WTPZ45 KNHC 161441
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND
WITH THE CENTER REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB AND AN OBSERVATION OF 35 KNOTS FROM SHIP A8GT6 SUGGEST THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. KIKO IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5 DAYS.
THEREFORE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

KIKO HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS. MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME BRINGING KIKO
EASTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO AND OTHERS BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
FORCING KIKO WESTWARD. MOST OF THE TIME...THIS MODEL SPLIT IS AN
INDICATION THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK.
THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION OR A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED DURING
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL AND SLOW TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION OF THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 14.2N 108.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.3N 108.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 108.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.3N 108.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 109.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 109.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

832
WTPZ25 KNHC 161441
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 108.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 108.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.3N 108.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.3N 108.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 108.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA