Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

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#101 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Oct 18, 2007 9:44 pm

Nice Blog Kiko :-)

P.S. Also good to know the cable companys arent only dumb here. lol
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#102 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 9:53 pm

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 190251
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

...KIKO REFORMING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO. WARNINGS AND WATCHES COULD BE
ADJUSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST ON FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIKO IS A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KIKO IS FORECAST TO PARALLEL THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND KIKO COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE
FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.7 N...104.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


WTPZ45 KNHC 190251
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING WITH BANDS OF CURVED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. A 0100 UTC MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THAT
THE CENTER HAS REFORMED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
POSITION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35
KT. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR INTENSIFICATION OF KIKO. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS ALSO LESSENED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SEPARATE
FROM THE ITCZ. WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER IN THE PATH OF
THE STORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A MODERATE INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS. IN THE
LONGER-RANGE...THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE AND KIKO'S INTENSITY COULD
LEVEL OFF BY THEN...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT
POSSIBILITY. IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN.

THE CENTER OF KIKO HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK TODAY...EVEN
WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE RECENT CENTER REFORMATION
DOESN'T HELP MATTERS. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE STORM IS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST...315/3. THIS LEFTWARD TURN MAY BE
DUE TO A RIDGE RE-BUILDING OVER MEXICO FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WITH
RIDGING FORECAST OVER MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS
THAT KIKO WILL BE STEERED IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.
MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS NEW MOTION AND NOW
EITHER KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OR HAVE
THE CYCLONE JUST BRUSH THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
TO THE WEST BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.7N 104.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 104.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.7N 105.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.2N 105.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#103 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 19, 2007 1:26 am

WTPZ35 KNHC 190600
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

...KIKO BARELY MOVING...

AT 11 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS MODIFIED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA SAN
TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES...285 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 230
MILES...365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

KIKO HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE
CENTER OF KIKO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...104.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#104 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 19, 2007 6:10 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190900
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS BACK AT 0041Z SUGGESTED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE STILL ABOUT 35 KT. SINCE THAT TIME THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT FEW IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY HEALTHY BURST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DESPITE 06Z
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT FOR NOW BASED ON THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH
WERE ALSO USED TO CONTRACT THE 34-KT WIND RADII. CONDITIONS APPEAR
RIPE FOR STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...AS KIKO WILL SOON FIND ITSELF
RIGHT BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND STILL OVER VERY WARM
WATERS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KIKO TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOST OF THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY AT LONGER RANGES
HAS BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GUIDANCE THAT
SEEMS TO RESPOND TO A MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR AND EVENTUALLY
COOLER SSTS ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

CENTER FIXES DERIVED FROM AN ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES
AND AN SSMIS IMAGE AT 0317Z...COMBINED WITH RECENT GOES INFRARED
IMAGERY...DO NOT REVEAL MUCH MOTION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT
HINT AT A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
REMAINS AN UNCERTAIN 315/3. THE MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FOR 2-3 DAYS...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES PRIMARILY IN THE FORWARD
SPEED...AS THE CYCLONE HEADS TOWARD A PERSISTENT BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN
PACIFIC. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF KIKO AS A
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THAT TURN OCCURS VARIES WILDLY AMONG
THE MODELS...WITH THE GFDL FARTHEST NORTH NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GFS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT LONG RANGES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.7N 104.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 105.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 105.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 18.1N 106.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 18.7N 107.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 20.0N 108.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 21.0N 110.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 21.5N 113.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#105 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 19, 2007 7:37 am

TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...CORRECTED DISTANCES...

...KIKO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...550 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 245
MILES...395 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE CENTER OF KIKO IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...16.9 N...105.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#106 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 19, 2007 8:52 am

Image

15EKIKO.40kts-999mb
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#107 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:17 pm

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 191437
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT KIKO IS SLOWLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE THAT MAY BE THE
BEGINNING OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 52 AND 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...
AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW 10 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER KIKO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/3. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR SHOULD STEER KIKO SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
ITS EFFECTS ON KIKO. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ALL
FORECAST THE TROUGH TO DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW KIKO
TO TURN WESTWARD BY 72-96 HR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE TURN
EARLIER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND MOVING FAR
ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO TURN KIKO NORTHWARD. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...BUT APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST WITH THE FORWARD
MOTION. EVEN NOW...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH OF THESE
SCENARIOS WILL VERIFY. THEREFORE...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST CALLS
FOR A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN FORECAST IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OVERALL...THE TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

KIKO SHOULD REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48-72
HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL
CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 68 KT...THE GFDL 88 KT...AND THE HWRF
90 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE WITH A
FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT. AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR AS KIKO REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.1N 105.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 105.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 17.9N 106.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 107.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 20.5N 108.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 21.5N 109.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


000
WTPZ35 KNHC 191432
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...KIKO A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 510
MILES...815 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...105.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#108 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 19, 2007 2:48 pm

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 191746
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...KIKO CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...SLOWLY ORGANIZING...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 490
MILES...790 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...17.3 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#109 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:40 pm

TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...KIKO INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE....

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT
470 MILES...755 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.5 N...105.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES BACK AROUND 12Z WERE NEAR 50 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT BASED ON THIS DATA. THERE IS
GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR OUTFLOW
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/4. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR SHOULD STEER KIKO SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ITS EFFECTS ON KIKO. THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL FORECAST THE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW KIKO TO TURN WESTWARD BY
72-96 HR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE TURN EARLIER AND FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN STILL SHOW THE
TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO TURN KIKO
NORTHWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF REMAIN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.
AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR THE TROUGH AND CALL FOR KIKO TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER
72 HR...WITH A TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACKS OF THOSE MODELS.
THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR...
AND THEN IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THEREAFTER.

KIKO SHOULD REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48-72
HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL
NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT...THE GFDL 74 KT...AND THE
HWRF 108 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN COMPROMISES BETWEEN
THESE WITH A FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT. AFTER 72 HR...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR AS KIKO REACHES COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE A
WEAKENING TREND...WITH MORE WEAKENING SHOWN THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER DUE TO AN EXPECTED FASTER MOTION INTO THE COOLER WATERS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.5N 105.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.8N 106.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 18.4N 106.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 19.2N 107.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 20.0N 107.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 109.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 110.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#110 Postby HurricaneRobert » Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:46 pm

There's a little burst of red right over the center. I wonder if it's forming a small eye.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#111 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 19, 2007 5:08 pm

Image
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#112 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 19, 2007 5:14 pm

The structure of Kiko has become better defined over the past 24 hours but the convection is not impressive at all. If convection doesn't become any better organized hurricane status is pretty far off.

By the way, today I talked to Chris Landsea here in the AOML building at Virginia Key, FL.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#113 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 19, 2007 6:38 pm

WTPZ35 KNHC 192331
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...KIKO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT
THIS TIME...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT
470 MILES...755 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...17.6 N...105.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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#114 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Oct 19, 2007 9:22 pm

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#115 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 19, 2007 9:44 pm

WTPZ35 KNHC 200232
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...KIKO HAS NOT STRENGTHEN YET...ITS FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN...

AT 8 PM PDT...03000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO
NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...220 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 445 MILES
...715 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE TRACK WILL LIKELY BECOME UNCERTAIN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.7 N...105.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTPZ45 KNHC 200232
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...AND MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW
AND MID -LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED. DVORAK T-
NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 45 KNOTS...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS. THERE IS A
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. SHIPS ONLY
SHOWS A MODEST STRENGTHENING AND BARELY BRINGS KIKO TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHILE THE TWO OTHER MODELS MAKE KIKO A STRONGER HURRICANE.
THERE ARE NO APPARENT REASONS WHY KIKO SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN. THE
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE KIKO IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INSISTS ON A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND KIKO SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY OR
TWO.

KIKO HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES
AT 4 KNOTS. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL LIKELY KEEP KIKO ON
THE SAME GENERAL SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...I
EMPHASIZE...HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. RELIABLE MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF KIKO AND EVENTUALLY FORCE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
EQUALLY RELIABLE UK AND GFDL/HWRF GROUP SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN TO THE AREA OF CABO
CORRIENTES AND THE SEA OF CORTES. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...TURNING KIKO WESTWARD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND AWAY FROM MEXICO. HOWEVER...WE MUST BE READY TO
MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IF THE NORTHWARD TREND SUGGESTED
BY THE UK/GFDL/HWRF RUNS BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE. THIS OPTION COULD
RESULT IN A STRONGER CYCLONE SINCE THE OCEAN IS VERY WARM NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. SO STAY TUNED.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.7N 105.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 18.1N 106.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 19.0N 107.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.7N 107.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 109.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 21.5N 111.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 22.0N 114.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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#117 Postby RattleMan » Fri Oct 19, 2007 10:46 pm

Awesome graphics, Chad.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#118 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2007 6:17 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 200900
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

UNTIL ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO...KIKO WAS NOT PRODUCING ALL THAT MUCH
DEEP CONVECTION...BUT A HEALTHY BURST HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 45-55 KT...WITH OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FAVORING THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE. GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN CONVECTION SINCE THEN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED
SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FORECASTS KIKO TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING
FOR KIKO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS GIVEN THE WEAK
WIND SHEAR AND VERY WARM SSTS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY PEAKS AT 75
KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DECLINE THEREAFTER AS SHEAR
INCREASES AND SSTS EVENTUALLY COOL BENEATH THE CYCLONE.

KIKO CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 305/4...TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ERODE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. ALL OF THE MODELS EVENTUALLY SHOW THAT SYSTEM PROCEEDING
EASTWARD...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
AND CALIFORNIA IN A FEW DAYS. IN RESPONSE TO THAT PATTERN
CHANGE...THE MODELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DIVERGENT BEYOND ABOUT 36
HOURS. THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
BUT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT ON THE LATEST RUN...TAKING
KIKO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
48-72 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE MODEL SPREAD...SHOWING A WESTWARD TURN WELL SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT FOR ME TO
ANTICIPATE A WESTWARD TURN THAT SOON...GIVEN THAT KIKO SHOULD BE A
DEEP SYSTEM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO ITS
NORTH UNTIL ABOUT BEYOND 48 HOURS FROM NOW. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION AND IS A BIT
FASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STARTING ON DAY
2...BUT IT STILL CALLS FOR KIKO TO TURN WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS MODEL
SPREAD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 17.7N 106.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 18.3N 106.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 19.1N 107.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 19.9N 108.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 20.7N 108.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 21.7N 110.7W 65 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#119 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2007 7:39 am

201141
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

...KIKO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 415 MILES
...665 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WITH THE CENTER OF KIKO REMAINING OFFSHORE AND MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND KIKO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...106.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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#120 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 20, 2007 7:54 am

287
WHXX01 KMIA 201242
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO (EP152007) 20071020 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071020 1200 071021 0000 071021 1200 071022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 106.4W 18.6N 107.8W 18.7N 108.7W 18.5N 109.6W
BAMD 17.9N 106.4W 19.0N 107.2W 20.3N 107.9W 21.4N 108.5W
BAMM 17.9N 106.4W 18.9N 107.3W 19.8N 107.9W 20.4N 108.7W
LBAR 17.9N 106.4W 18.8N 107.0W 20.2N 107.8W 22.0N 108.6W
SHIP 55KTS 64KTS 72KTS 75KTS
DSHP 55KTS 64KTS 72KTS 75KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071022 1200 071023 1200 071024 1200 071025 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 110.8W 17.5N 114.0W 17.8N 117.5W 19.2N 119.6W
BAMD 22.1N 109.6W 22.8N 112.9W 23.8N 117.9W 25.6N 121.1W
BAMM 20.4N 110.3W 20.2N 115.5W 21.0N 122.2W 22.5N 127.6W
LBAR 23.9N 108.9W 27.3N 107.1W 29.3N 105.1W 27.9N 104.3W
SHIP 73KTS 62KTS 44KTS 29KTS
DSHP 73KTS 62KTS 44KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.9N LONCUR = 106.4W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 105.7W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 105.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$
NNNN


55 knots
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