Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#121 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2007 8:14 am

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Liftoff for Kiko.
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#122 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 20, 2007 8:23 am

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#123 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:35 am

WTPZ35 KNHC 201431
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES...260 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT
395 MILES...635 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE CENTER OF KIKO REMAINING OFFSHORE AND MOVING PARALLEL TO THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KIKO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL STATES OF
JALISCO AND COLIMA. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...106.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTPZ45 KNHC 201456
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KIKO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ALMOST
SURROUNDED BY A SOMEWHAT RAGGED OUTER BAND. OVERSHOOTING
CONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE CDO ARE COLDER THAN -80C. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO
GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE WEST...WHERE IT IS POOR.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/4. KIKO IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...WITH
ALL LARGE-SCALE MODELS EXCEPT THE NOGAPS FORECASTING THE TROUGH TO
MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
NORTH OF KIKO. THIS SHOULD TURN KIKO MORE WESTWARD IN THE 48-72 HR
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES NOT TOTALLY AGREE
WITH THIS SCENARIO...AS THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW A NORTHWARD MOTION
FOR 48 HR OR SO FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE GFDL HAS A
GOOD RECENT TRACK RECORD ON STORMS IN THIS AREA...BUT IN THIS CASE
IT MAY BE DRIVING KIKO TOO MUCH INTO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 48
HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE CCON CONSENSUS MODEL. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO
WOULD BE A NORTHWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE
TRAILING RIDGE BUILDS...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO HOW CLOSE KIKO MAY COME TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.

KIKO IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THAT IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR KIKO TO PEAK AT 80 KT IN 36 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...
INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SSTS ARE BELOW 24C
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WEST OF 110W...SO THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.1N 106.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 18.7N 107.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 19.6N 107.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 20.4N 108.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 20.8N 109.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 22.0N 115.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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#124 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 20, 2007 12:28 pm

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Beginning to look like a hurricane.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#125 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2007 12:51 pm

WTPZ35 KNHC 201749
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

...KIKO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...RAINBANDS JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT
375 MILES...605 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF KIKO OFFSHORE AND MOVING PARALLEL
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KIKO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL STATES OF
JALISCO AND COLIMA. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...18.3 N...106.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac MODELS

#126 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2007 1:43 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 201840
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC SAT OCT 20 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO (EP152007) 20071020 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071020 1800 071021 0600 071021 1800 071022 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 106.8W 18.7N 108.1W 18.4N 109.1W 17.9N 110.3W
BAMD 18.3N 106.8W 19.3N 107.4W 20.3N 107.8W 21.1N 108.6W
BAMM 18.3N 106.8W 18.9N 107.7W 19.4N 108.4W 19.5N 109.6W
LBAR 18.3N 106.8W 19.5N 107.3W 20.9N 108.0W 22.5N 108.6W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 75KTS 76KTS
DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 75KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071022 1800 071023 1800 071024 1800 071025 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 111.8W 17.6N 115.5W 18.9N 120.0W 21.3N 124.1W
BAMD 21.8N 109.9W 22.9N 114.4W 25.0N 119.8W 27.2N 123.8W
BAMM 19.5N 111.7W 19.7N 117.8W 21.1N 125.0W 21.2N 131.0W
LBAR 24.5N 108.8W 28.1N 107.8W 29.8N 108.1W 29.9N 110.1W
SHIP 74KTS 59KTS 42KTS 31KTS
DSHP 74KTS 59KTS 42KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 106.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 106.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 105.3W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM

Almost a hurricane,60 kts.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac MODELS

#127 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Oct 20, 2007 1:53 pm

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#128 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:07 pm

20/1800 UTC 18.3N 106.8W T3.5/3.5 KIKO -- East Pacific Ocean

Still doesn't warrant hurricane intensity.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#129 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:34 pm

WTPZ35 KNHC 202033
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

...KIKO APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 360 MILES...580
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF KIKO OFFSHORE AND MOVING PARALLEL
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KIKO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL STATES OF
JALISCO AND COLIMA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...18.5 N...106.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTPZ45 KNHC 202033
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

KIKO IS ALMOST TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED BANDING PATTERN AROUND THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH WITH
RATHER WARM CLOUD TOPS AT THE MOMENT. WHILE THERE WAS A HINT OF AN
EYE FORMING EARLIER...THAT HAS NOW BEEN FILLED BY NEW CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB
AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.
THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...AND POOR
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/5. WHILE KIKO IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THAT SHOULD BREAK THAT RIDGE IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A TRAILING RIDGE TO
BUILD NORTH OF KIKO...CAUSING THE STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HR. DESPITE THIS IMPROVED AGREEMENT...
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A NOTABLE SPREAD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A WESTWARD MOTION NEAR OR SOUTH OF 20N...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF
FORECAST A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...AND THEN A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THEM THEREAFTER. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBLE
ALTERNATE SCENARIO OF A NORTHWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW CLOSE KIKO
MAY COME TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM.

KIKO IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THAT IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR 24-36 HR. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING
DURING THAT TIME...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KIKO TO
PEAK AT 75 KT IN 24 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING SHEAR...DRY
AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF KIKO...AND COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING. THE SSTS ARE BELOW 24C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WEST OF
110W...SO KIKO IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING BY 120 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.5N 106.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.2N 107.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 19.9N 107.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 20.4N 108.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 20.8N 109.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 113.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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#130 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Oct 20, 2007 4:33 pm

Yeah, when I first looked at Kiko this afternoon the organization is that of a CAT1 hurricane but the convection is not as deep (same thing last night). I can't believe the Epac may have a hurricane in October and the Atlantic won't (so far), just backwards!

The last 2 hours the eye was trying to appear but a new convective burst went partially over it and I have seen this with other TC's before.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#131 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2007 6:41 pm

WTPZ35 KNHC 202335
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

...KIKO STILL A TROPICAL STORM....

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 345 MILES...555
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6
MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF KIKO
OFFSHORE AND MOVING PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND KIKO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL STATES OF
JALISCO AND COLIMA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...18.7 N...107.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991
MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#132 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2007 7:32 pm

21/0000 UTC 18.6N 107.1W T3.5/3.5 KIKO -- East Pacific Ocean


Still not a hurricane.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac MODELS

#133 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2007 7:42 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 210020
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0020 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO (EP152007) 20071021 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071021 0000 071021 1200 071022 0000 071022 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 107.1W 19.2N 108.0W 19.1N 108.8W 18.9N 110.2W
BAMD 18.7N 107.1W 19.8N 107.5W 20.8N 107.9W 21.6N 108.8W
BAMM 18.7N 107.1W 19.4N 107.8W 19.7N 108.6W 19.7N 110.1W
SHIP 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS 68KTS
DSHP 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS 68KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071023 0000 071024 0000 071025 0000 071026 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 111.9W 18.9N 116.4W 20.3N 120.9W 22.2N 124.6W
BAMD 22.3N 110.0W 23.0N 114.2W 24.5N 118.4W 26.9N 120.7W
BAMM 19.7N 112.3W 19.8N 118.2W 21.6N 124.7W 22.7N 130.1W
SHIP 64KTS 49KTS 32KTS 18KTS
DSHP 64KTS 49KTS 32KTS 18KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.7N LONCUR = 107.1W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 106.4W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 105.7W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM


Still a Tropical Storm.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#134 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:39 pm

WTPZ35 KNHC 210236
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

...FUTURE OF KIKO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 325
MILES...525 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF KIKO OFFSHORE AND MOVING PARALLEL
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND KIKO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL STATES OF
JALISCO AND COLIMA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.9 N...107.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

WTPZ45 KNHC 210237
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007

LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED BANDING
PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A
RATHER SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. A 0010 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE
OVERPASS REVEALED AN EYE FEATURE OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE OUTFLOW OF KIKO REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH...BUT IT
IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO A SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING KIKO...WHILE THE HWRF SHOWS
VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BETWEEN AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS KIKO TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS KIKO PASSES WEST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. KIKO IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE VERY
SOON. THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT LESS AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE
INTERACTION OF KIKO AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES. THE GFDL AND 18Z UKMET DEEPEN THE TROUGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP KIKO ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH WILL BYPASS KIKO AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER
SCENARIO THAT THE KIKO WILL RESPOND TO THE BUILDING RIDGE AND TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

SINCE KIKO IS MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO..THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...SINCE THE WESTWARD
TURN IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN TO MATERIALIZE...INTERESTS ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE KIKO OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 18.9N 107.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 19.6N 107.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 20.2N 108.1W 70 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 110.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 21.5N 113.7W 45 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 22.0N 117.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z 22.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

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#135 Postby NetZeroZeus » Sun Oct 21, 2007 1:09 am

Well, looks like I'm in the clear. We got rain all evening though.
I hope Baja doesn't get hit, but they are used to it.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#136 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 21, 2007 4:55 am

WTPZ45 KNHC 210859
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF KIKO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
6 TO 12 HOURS. A 0253 UTC SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED AN EYE
FEATURE SIMILAR TO AN EARLIER PASS...BUT CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS YET TO REVEAL SUCH A FEATURE. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A BLEND OF THE TWO...60 KT.

FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS...KIKO HAS BEEN ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
HURRICANE. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KIKO'S
INTENSITY COULD BE REACHING ITS PEAK. ONLY THE GFDL BRINGS KIKO TO
MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WHILE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM
OCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREAFTER...KIKO IS FORECAST TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS ALONG WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AND ICON...
WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DSHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5...AND KIKO IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THE
RIDGE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 OR SO HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE...
HOWEVER...VARIES IN THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL COMMENCE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A
BLEND OF THE UKMET... NOGAPS...HWRF...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

SINCE KIKO IS CURRENTLY MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND
THE WESTWARD TURN IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN TO MATERIALIZE...INTERESTS
ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE KIKO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 19.3N 107.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.8N 107.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 20.2N 108.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 20.6N 109.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 21.1N 110.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 23.0N 117.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 23.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac MODELS

#137 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2007 8:11 am

439
WHXX01 KMIA 211241
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC SUN OCT 21 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO (EP152007) 20071021 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071021 1200 071022 0000 071022 1200 071023 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 107.4W 19.9N 108.4W 20.2N 109.9W 20.7N 111.9W
BAMD 19.4N 107.4W 20.6N 108.0W 21.6N 109.0W 22.4N 110.6W
BAMM 19.4N 107.4W 20.1N 108.1W 20.6N 109.6W 20.9N 112.0W
LBAR 19.4N 107.4W 20.7N 107.6W 22.7N 107.8W 24.9N 107.8W
SHIP 60KTS 60KTS 59KTS 57KTS
DSHP 60KTS 60KTS 59KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071023 1200 071024 1200 071025 1200 071026 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 114.6W 22.5N 120.8W 24.0N 125.9W 24.9N 128.6W
BAMD 23.0N 112.8W 25.0N 118.3W 28.0N 122.0W 32.4N 121.7W
BAMM 21.1N 115.3W 23.0N 122.8W 25.7N 129.1W 26.3N 131.2W
LBAR 27.1N 107.1W 29.9N 107.3W 31.0N 108.7W 31.3N 108.9W
SHIP 51KTS 32KTS 16KTS 0KTS
DSHP 51KTS 32KTS 16KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.4N LONCUR = 107.4W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 107.1W DIRM12 = 326DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 106.4W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 65NM RD34NW = 80NM

$$
SHIP now dont upgrade to hurricane anymore.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#138 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2007 9:46 am

WTPZ35 KNHC 211444
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...KIKO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 295
MILES...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4
KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICAN COASTAL STATES OF
JALISCO AND NAYARIT.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...19.3 N...107.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

WTPZ45 KNHC 211450
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007

EVEN THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE THAT
STRONG...AN EARLIER TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. MOREOVER...CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING...AND LIGHTENING DATA
SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF CORE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT KIKO MAY
HAVE PEAKED AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED BUT A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT AND
THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. GIVEN THE PRESENT APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...IT APPEARS THAT KIKO WILL NOT BECOME A HURRICANE AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING.

KIKO IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...330/2...WITHIN A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF KIKO AND FORCING A TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. THE GFDL IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL
MODEL WHICH DOES NOT SHOW THIS WESTWARD TURN MATERIALIZING WITHIN
THE FIRST 24 HOURS. INSTEAD...THE GFDL MAINTAINS A STRONG AND
VERTICALLY ALIGNED VORTEX THAT CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. SINCE WEAKENING HAS ALREADY
COMMENCED...THE GFDL IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN BEGINNING LATER TODAY.
NONETHELESS...INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE KIKO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 19.3N 107.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 19.7N 107.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 20.1N 108.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 20.6N 110.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 22.0N 115.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 23.5N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME
WWWW

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#139 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2007 3:38 pm

TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007

...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT
270 MILES...435 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND MONDAY AS KIKO MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...19.5 N...107.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

WTPZ45 KNHC 212036
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT KIKO HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED DURING
THE DAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED...LIMITED...AND
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON THIS TREND. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...INCREASING STABILITY....AND DRIER
AIR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT KIKO WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4
DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.

IT APPEARS THAT KIKO IS BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A RIDGE
BUILDS IN ITS WAKE...TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS WESTWARD
TURN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH WITH SOME EVEN SHOWING A MOTION TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE GFDL REMAINS THE NORTHERNMOST OUTLIER BUT EVEN THAT
MODEL NOW BYPASSES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE
SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS KIKO TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UNTIL THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS FULLY
MATERIALIZED...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 19.5N 107.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 19.7N 108.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 20.1N 109.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 20.4N 111.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 20.7N 112.9W 30 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 23.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/1800Z 25.0N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

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#140 Postby RL3AO » Sun Oct 21, 2007 3:45 pm

So a storm weakens despite little shear? Only in 2007. :lol:
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