Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#141 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2007 9:47 pm

TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007

KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SLOWLY DECREASING
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF
THE DATA T-NUMBERS. QUIKSCAT WAS SCHEDULED TO PASS OVER THE CYCLONE
A SHORT TIME AGO...AND DATA FROM THIS PASS SHOULD SOON PROVIDE A
BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.

EVEN THOUGH KIKO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS...SOUTHERLY
SHEAR AND A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
WEAKENING PROCESS. DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE
GFDL MAINTAINS KIKO AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FOR A COUPLE MORE
DAYS. THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE PREDICT A FASTER RATE OF
WEAKENING AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE MODELS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT KIKO WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

A TIMELY 2356 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN
LOCATING THE CENTER OF KIKO THIS EVENING. THIS IMAGERY ALONG WITH
EARLIER CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES...SUGGEST THAT THE MUCH
ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS COMMENCED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 300/3. KIKO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
AND THEY ALL PREDICT THAT KIKO WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THE GFDL REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND
INDICATE A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT
IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 19.6N 108.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 19.7N 108.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 19.9N 110.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 20.0N 111.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 20.2N 114.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#142 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2007 6:15 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 220833
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2007

MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS PLODDING ALONG AT ABOUT
300/2 TO THE SOUTH OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ALL THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT KIKO IS ABOUT TO COME UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AS THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A TURN
TO THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. EVEN THE GFDL...
WHICH IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND HAS HAD A
NORTHWARD BIAS WITH THIS STORM...TAKES KIKO SAFELY SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT
SLOWER THAN...THE UKMET...AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. SINCE IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT ANY FURTHER WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY...PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON KIKO ARE BEING
DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.

THE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED FOR THE TIME
BEING. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0140Z SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PARTICULARLY
AT THE UPPERMOST LEVELS...BUT AS KIKO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE THE SHEAR COULD TEMPORARILY LESSEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WITH WARM WATERS UNDER THE CYCLONE...KIKO COULD MAINTAIN
STORM STATUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION
OF COOL WATER...DRY AIR...AND INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A
FAIRLY SWIFT DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE TO A REMNANT LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 19.6N 108.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 19.8N 108.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 19.9N 110.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#144 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 22, 2007 10:28 am

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2007

AFTER PRODUCING AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...
TEMPORARILY HALTING THE WEAKENING TREND...IT APPEARS THAT KIKO'S
DOWNWARD TREND HAS RESUMED. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY WARMING DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS
AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE PRIMARILY
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS DEBRIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35
KT BASED ON THE DETERIORATING SATELLITE APPEARANCE. KIKO'S
ANTICIPATED TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING. IN
FACT...IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE
SOON...KIKO COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

KIKO APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AS IT HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO
BE 280/5. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED
BY A TURN NORTHWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW
APPROACHES A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 19.7N 108.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 19.8N 110.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 19.8N 112.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 19.9N 114.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 20.2N 116.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1200Z 21.5N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME


Kiko, te queda poco.

Kiko, there's very litte time for you.
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#145 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 22, 2007 3:44 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2007

DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM THE CONVECTIVE BURST LAST NIGHT HAS
CLEARED OUT...LEAVING AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS YIELDS A MUCH MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 265/8...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE AND JUST SOUTH OF
DUE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND NEARLY
ALL MODELS SUGGEST A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS
IT APPROACHES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AND
IT NOW APPEARS THAT KIKO IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT AND SIGNIFICANT
REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A VERY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 19.5N 109.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.3N 111.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.2N 113.6W 25 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 19.1N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 24/1800Z 19.3N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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Re: Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

#146 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2007 9:36 pm

WTPZ45 KNHC 230235
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2007

IT HAD BEEN NEARLY 10 HOURS SINCE KIKO PRODUCED ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...JUST AS THE CLOCK WAS ABOUT TO HIT DOUBLE ZERO...UTC...A
NEW BURST OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED...AND KIKO'S TIME AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
KIKO APPEARS QUITE HOSTILE...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS AND A
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. THE FORECAST INDICATES NO WEAKENING
DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
BURSTS DURING THE NEXT DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO WEAKEN STEADILY AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW IN 24 HOURS. KIKO COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
SOONER...IF IT FAILS TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION EARLY
ON TUESDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/9. THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANT
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.
THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE
AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THIS RIDGE WEAKENS IN A FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 19.4N 110.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 19.2N 112.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.1N 114.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 26/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WWWW

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Re: Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

#147 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Oct 22, 2007 10:51 pm

Guess he's not quite ready to go yet. :wink:
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Re: Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

#148 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2007 6:29 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230831
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2007

KIKO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SMALL BURSTS OF CONVECTION...WITH THE
LATEST BURST DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. AN SSM/I
OVERPASS AT 0144Z SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30
KT.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING FASTER...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 260/11.
KIKO IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST 48 HR BEFORE A DEEP-LAYER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KIKO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION OR
ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD
MOTION THAN ON THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS NOTABLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.

DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD CAUSE KIKO TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HR OR
LESS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW LONG
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LAST. THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS
SHOW IT LASTING THROUGH FIVE DAYS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW IT
WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN LESS THAN 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND FORECAST THE REMNANTS TO
DISSIPATE BY 96 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.1N 112.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.9N 114.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 24/0600Z 18.9N 116.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 24/1800Z 19.0N 118.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/0600Z 19.4N 120.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 26/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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#149 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 23, 2007 9:37 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2007

THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE A COOLER OCEAN
AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR. SO KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

KIKO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL
LIKELY MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE PREVAILING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.6N 113.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 114.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 24/1200Z 18.5N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 25/0000Z 19.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 26/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#150 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 23, 2007 11:19 am

Hanging in there!
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Re: Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

#151 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2007 3:49 pm

WTPZ45 KNHC 232036
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 23 2007

SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND
KIKO IS NOW IS A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. ANALYSIS FROM A 1326
UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A FEW CREDIBLE 30 KT WIND VECTORS...
HOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT KIKO HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE THAT
TIME.

DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS SPORADICALLY
DEVELOPED AND QUICKLY WEAKENED. GIVEN THE LACK OF PERSISTENCE AND
ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE ADDITIONAL TEMPORARY BURSTS OF
CONVECTION MIGHT RECUR...A CONTINUED SPIN-DOWN OF THE REMNANT
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THIS IS THE
LAST ADVISORY ON KIKO UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.3N 114.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 18.1N 116.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 24/1800Z 18.2N 118.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 25/0600Z 18.3N 120.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/1800Z 19.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

WWWW

The last advisory for Kiko.The thread will remain here for 48 hours before it moves to the archieves of 2007 for those who want to recap about it.
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#152 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 23, 2007 3:53 pm

Adios Kiko, hasta el 2013.

Bye Kiko, until 2013.
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#153 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Oct 23, 2007 3:59 pm

Thereof, most likely ending the awful 2007 eastern Pacific hurricane season with that last advisory for Kiko (quite a lot were issued, 36). This could even be the last TC for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins (and the central Pacific).

On a side note, I don't remember any homegrown central Pacific tropical cyclones this year. The most action came from Flossie from the Epac.
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