Tropical Depression Kiko in EPac

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#81 Postby Kiko » Wed Oct 17, 2007 8:33 pm

Had to stop in to say hello. Wow, a storm named after me! I'm deeply honored.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#82 Postby AZRainman » Wed Oct 17, 2007 8:50 pm

Kiko needs to visit the desert southwest US, cause we forgot what the rain looks like out here.

Anyone thinking it will reach cat 1? Nice map Chad, looking more pro all the time.
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#83 Postby chadtm80 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:01 pm

Kiko!! Long time no see!! Been thinking about you all week with this thin churning out there..

Thanks azrainman :-)
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#84 Postby Kiko » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:03 pm

Still kicking... if I dare to state the obvious. :D

Nice to see you too, Chad ...and Cy.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#85 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:35 pm

:uarrow: Hi Kiko,long time without seeing you around here.

WTPZ45 KNHC 180233
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2007

NEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE FIRED NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKO AFTER
IT WAS EXPOSED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS A RATHER ELONGATED SHAPE AND IT IS UNKNOWN HOW
SEPARATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FROM THE ITCZ. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CHANGES TO THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THIS
SYSTEM WILL ABATE IN A DAY OR TWO WHICH...ASSUMING THE SYSTEM
SURVIVES...WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. IN FACT THE
SHIPS/HWRF/GFDL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE DISHEVELED PATTERN ON
SATELLITE...I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE STORM SHOWS MORE SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION BEFORE JUMPING ON THE HURRICANE KIKO BANDWAGON.
HOWEVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARDS AT DAYS 3-5 IN
DEFERENCE TO OUR BEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/7...WHICH INDICATES A SMALL TURN
TOWARD THE LEFT IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. KIKO APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT
UP IN LOW-LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR
SO DUE TO A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THIS RIDGE
SHOULD FORCE THE STORM TO TURN LEFTWARD WITH TIME AND CAUSE A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN A COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE BIG QUESTION
IS WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE TOO CLOSE BY THEN TO MISS MEXICO.
MOST MODELS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO...
ESPECIALLY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN. THE ECMWF/GFDN/NOGAPS/UKMET
MODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER OR CLOSE TO MEXICO DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THOSE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHOWING SOME THREAT TO
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WATCHES MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY IF THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.8N 104.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.2N 104.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 103.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 16.8N 103.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 17.4N 104.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 105.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 19.0N 106.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 20.0N 107.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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#86 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:03 pm

Sorry if this has been posted, but have ya seen the 18Z GFDL for Kiko? Look at what it spins up in the BOC!!!!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Wow...looks like a twin to the CMC model with here-a-cane, there-a-cane...

Might be something to watch since the CMC in fact does show something in that neck of the woods...
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#87 Postby Kiko » Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:22 pm

That's no twin, that's a little brother...

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#88 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:15 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180846
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 AM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE INITIAL MOTION RELIES HEAVILY ON EXTRAPOLATION. WHILE
CONVECTION APPEARS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
KIKO CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS THUS
FAR LIMITED STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSUMING THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING. IN FACT THE SHIPS/HWRF/GFDL MODELS ALL SHOW
KIKO BECOMING A HURRICANE. GIVEN THE RATHER BROAD CIRCULATION AND
THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BELOW THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS KIKO AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/6. THE TRACK FORECAST HINGES ON
WHETHER OR NOT KIKO CAN BREAK FREE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK AND
POORLY DEFINED...IT COULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST
OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CONVERSELY...IF THE CYCLONE
WERE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME DEEPER...IT WOULD TEND TO BE STEERED
NORTHWESTWARD BY A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
INTERACTION AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO HAVE A WEST BIAS IN CASES
WHERE CYCLONES MOVE CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND IS RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.4N 104.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.9N 103.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 103.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 103.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 18.2N 104.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 108.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME


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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac MODELS

#89 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:10 am

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 181259
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1259 UTC THU OCT 18 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO (EP152007) 20071018 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        071018  1200   071019  0000   071019  1200   071020  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.2N 103.5W   16.9N 103.5W   17.4N 103.9W   17.7N 105.1W
BAMD    16.2N 103.5W   16.8N 103.9W   17.4N 104.2W   18.1N 104.8W
BAMM    16.2N 103.5W   16.9N 103.3W   17.4N 103.4W   17.9N 104.2W
LBAR    16.2N 103.5W   17.2N 102.8W   18.4N 102.2W   19.4N 101.9W
SHIP        35KTS          37KTS          43KTS          48KTS
DSHP        35KTS          37KTS          43KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        071020  1200   071021  1200   071022  1200   071023  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.1N 106.6W   18.7N 108.9W   18.8N 111.1W   19.3N 115.1W
BAMD    19.1N 105.9W   21.8N 107.5W   23.8N 109.4W   25.6N 114.2W
BAMM    18.7N 105.6W   20.6N 107.8W   21.3N 111.4W   21.9N 117.8W
LBAR    20.5N 102.0W   23.8N 102.1W   28.7N  99.0W   34.3N  92.0W
SHIP        52KTS          60KTS          61KTS          61KTS
DSHP        52KTS          33KTS          34KTS          34KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.2N LONCUR = 103.5W DIRCUR =  40DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  14.7N LONM12 = 104.9W DIRM12 =  62DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  14.4N LONM24 = 106.4W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =   75NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#90 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 9:39 am

Watches and warnings for Mexican coast.

WTPZ35 KNHC 181431
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

...TROPICAL STORM KIKO MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF
MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF KIKO NEAR THE
COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE
FLOW.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.4 N...103.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WWWW

WTPZ25 KNHC 181431
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
1500 UTC THU OCT 18 2007

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF
MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 75SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 103.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 90SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 103.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 103.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 104.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.5N 106.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 103.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WWWW

WTPZ45 KNHC 181457
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
800 AM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT KIKO IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN 24 HR AGO...WITH A LESS ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE
PAST 24 HR...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE CENTER TO BECOME MORE INVOLVED
WITH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT
RAGGED...AND BASED ON THIS AND UNCHANGED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.

THE CENTER OF KIKO MOVED FASTER DURING THE NIGHT...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/8. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED SHOULD SLOW DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR AS PRESSURES RISE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE UNITED STATES...ACCOMPANIED BY THE CENTER TURNING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.
AFTER 48 HR...A SECOND DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN U.S. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AND ITS EFFECTS ON KIKO. THE ECMWF
AND NOGAPS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY FARTHER TO THE WEST...
WITH KIKO TURNING NORTHWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE UKMET AND
GFS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH
RIDGING BUILDING NORTH OF KIKO CAUSING A WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE
OPEN PACIFIC. RIGHT NOW...IT CANNOT BE DETERMINED WHICH OF THESE
EXTREMES WILL BE RIGHT...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THEM WITH A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THEM TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING...WITH
THE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FASTER INTENSIFICATION THEN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH KIKO REACHING A 55 KT INTENSITY BEFORE THE
CENTER BRUSHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HR. KIKO COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE IF THE CENTER STAYS FARTHER OFFSHORE...AS
INDICATED BY THE GFDL MODEL.

THE CURRENT POSITION AND NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRE WARNINGS AND
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 16.4N 103.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 103.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 103.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 103.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 104.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 19.5N 105.0W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/1200Z 20.5N 106.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 23/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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#91 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Oct 18, 2007 9:52 am

I was thinking about recon and this confirms they could do just that:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 18 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-146

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL MISSION TO FIX TS KIKO
IF IT THREATENS MEXICO NEAR 18.7N AND 104.3W AT
20/2000Z.

WVW
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#92 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:38 pm

WTPZ45 KNHC 182032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
200 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR
THE CENTER AND IMPROVING CIRRUS OUTFLOW. THE BANDING HAS NOT YET
INCREASED ENOUGH TO RAISE THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM
CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM.

THE CENTER IS STILL BROAD AND HARD TO PIN DOWN EVEN WITH MICROWAVE
IMAGERY...BUT IT MAY BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE POSITION IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/3.
IN THE FIRST 48 HR OR SO...KIKO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AS PRESSURES RISE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. AFTER 48 HR...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE HANDLING OF
A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BUILD ENOUGH RIDGE BETWEEN KIKO AND THE TROUGH TO TURN
THE STORM WESTWARD. IN A NOTABLE CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...
THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS MORE RIDGING NORTH OF KIKO AND A NORTHWESTWARD
TO WESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO
BUILD THE RIDGE AFTER 48 HR...BUT IN A TWIST MOVES THE STORM
NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE NOGAPS
AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN A PATTERN THAT
WOULD CAUSE A NORTHWARD MOTION INTO MEXICO. THE GFDL AND HWRF CALL
FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A MUCH FASTER SPEED THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE SIMILAR TO BUT
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR. AFTER THAT...IT
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
THE BUILDING RIDGE. THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS LEFT OF AND SOMEWHAT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AT ABOUT THE SPEED OF THE ECMWF
AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THEM TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HR. SINCE KIKO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FARTHER
FROM LAND...THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR KIKO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR...AND THEN PEAK AT
ABOUT 96 HR AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR. THE NEW INTENSITIES
ARE HIGHER THAN THOSE OF THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT BELOW THOSE OF THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.8N 103.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.2N 103.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 103.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.3N 104.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 18.9N 105.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 19.5N 106.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 107.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Now forecast to become a hurricane.

Image
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#93 Postby RL3AO » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:38 pm

WOW! NHC forecasting 85kt

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Code: Select all

INITIAL      18/2100Z 16.8N 103.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.2N 103.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.7N 103.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.3N 104.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 18.9N 105.1W    70 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N 106.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 107.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W    85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#94 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:40 pm

Those who live in Cabo San Lucas will have to prepare for a possible strike or a brush by Kiko.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#95 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:43 pm

AZRainman wrote:Kiko needs to visit the desert southwest US, cause we forgot what the rain looks like out here.

Anyone thinking it will reach cat 1? Nice map Chad, looking more pro all the time.


Looks Like It

Image

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... page&size=
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#96 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:05 pm

Closeup view of Kiko.Looking better.

Image
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#97 Postby HurricaneRobert » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:15 pm

Wow, and this looked like it was finished earlier.
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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac

#98 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:39 pm

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 182332
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007
500 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007

...KIKO NEARLY STATIONARY...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO NORTH OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

KIKO HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF
KIKO NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN REGIONS OF ONSHORE
FLOW.

KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...104.0 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

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Re: Tropical Storm Kiko in EPac MODELS

#99 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:55 pm

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 190031
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0031 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO (EP152007) 20071019 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        071019  0000   071019  1200   071020  0000   071020  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.7N 104.1W   17.2N 104.5W   17.5N 105.6W   17.8N 107.1W
BAMD    16.7N 104.1W   17.2N 104.8W   17.8N 105.8W   18.6N 107.1W
BAMM    16.7N 104.1W   17.3N 104.5W   17.8N 105.4W   18.4N 106.9W
LBAR    16.7N 104.1W   17.2N 104.1W   18.0N 104.3W   18.6N 104.9W
SHIP        35KTS          40KTS          47KTS          53KTS
DSHP        35KTS          40KTS          47KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        071021  0000   071022  0000   071023  0000   071024  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.3N 108.6W   18.3N 110.9W   17.6N 113.3W   17.4N 115.7W
BAMD    19.5N 108.4W   21.0N 110.8W   22.2N 114.4W   24.0N 119.6W
BAMM    19.2N 108.4W   20.1N 111.0W   20.2N 114.9W   21.0N 120.2W
LBAR    19.8N 105.4W   22.9N 106.6W   26.2N 104.8W   28.0N 100.4W
SHIP        59KTS          68KTS          62KTS          56KTS
DSHP        59KTS          68KTS          62KTS          56KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.7N LONCUR = 104.1W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  16.1N LONM12 = 103.6W DIRM12 =  20DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  14.7N LONM24 = 104.9W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   30NM RD34SE =   75NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW =  30NM
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#100 Postby Kiko » Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:32 pm

I'm blogging Kiko at Kiko's Place, if anyone is interested. (link in my profile too)
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