INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#101 Postby gboudx » Tue Oct 16, 2007 12:46 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Interesting...I wasnt aware we had anymore rednecks then any other part of the southeast 8-)


I had assumed Redneck Riviera meant that it was a popular vacation destination amongst the redneck population.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#102 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 16, 2007 12:49 pm

gboudx wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Interesting...I wasnt aware we had anymore rednecks then any other part of the southeast 8-)


I had assumed Redneck Riviera meant that it was a popular vacation destination amongst the redneck population.


It could...I just never heard the phrase before and I live here...it is a funny concept though :lol:
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#103 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:00 pm

I'm sure its a term of respect. The water at Galveston frequently has silt and sea weed, sometimes tar balls (natural, btw, the cannibalistic Karankawa indigenous Americans of Texas caulked their canoes with these tar balls), whereas the sediment load from the Mississippi River tends to stay clear of your beaches.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#104 Postby BIG » Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:31 pm

Hello Ed. I followed your link from LGF and registered here. My knowledge of the weather consists of if I feel wet, it is raining. But I always value your predictions and I want to know what to look forward to as far as the weather is concerned in the Tampa region.

And as far as the Redneck Riviera is concerned, when I was last up there, they had some beautiful white sand beaches, good food, and great bars. Yes, I have been drunk in the Redneck Riviera.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#105 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:39 pm

BIG wrote:Hello Ed. I followed your link from LGF and registered here. My knowledge of the weather consists of if I feel wet, it is raining. But I always value your predictions and I want to know what to look forward to as far as the weather is concerned in the Tampa region.

And as far as the Redneck Riviera is concerned, when I was last up there, they had some beautiful white sand beaches, good food, and great bars. Yes, I have been drunk in the Redneck Riviera.



Well, IMHO and unprofessional opinion, 99L will just be a source of moisture for the severe outbreak tomorrow and especially Thursday. SWODY2 update even mentioned it.


I'm mostly visiting the severe outbreak thread in USA weather I started last Friday when I saw the European forecasted 850 mb winds and 500 mb heights.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#106 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:40 pm

Lot more informative than the blog with Dr. Master's column at Wunderground, more opinion from trained professionals, a lot less hysterics.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#107 Postby BIG » Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:46 pm

Well, I usually just get my info from you over at LGF.

BTW, Can I get my classification downgraded from a Tropical Wave to a Light Drizzle?

Also, I've recently converted my home movies from 8mm to digital and I have some stuff I shot from Francis from just before the eye passed over me to just after. It is kinda cool how the downpour changes directions. It was just a cat 1 when it passed overhead, but I can send it to you or post it here if they want to waste the bandwidth?
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#108 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:56 pm

BIG wrote:Well, I usually just get my info from you over at LGF.

BTW, Can I get my classification downgraded from a Tropical Wave to a Light Drizzle?

Also, I've recently converted my home movies from 8mm to digital and I have some stuff I shot from Francis from just before the eye passed over me to just after. It is kinda cool how the downpour changes directions. It was just a cat 1 when it passed overhead, but I can send it to you or post it here if they want to waste the bandwidth?


Maybe an admin will weigh in and advise.

Probably want you to start a new thread for that.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#109 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:10 pm

Definitely need to start a new thread for that in the Talkin' Tropics forum. The video also needs to be hosted by someone like "you tube" etc. so you can post a link to it as opposed to using up this sites band width.

Welcome to S2K!!! I hope you enjoy it here!!
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#110 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:16 pm

gboudx wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Interesting...I wasnt aware we had anymore rednecks then any other part of the southeast 8-)


I had assumed Redneck Riviera meant that it was a popular vacation destination amongst the redneck population.


That is what was meant by redneck riviera, at least when I used to hear the term when I lived there. In the earlier years of the emerald coasts development into a vacation destination many of the out of state licence plates were from Tennesse, Mississippi, and Alabama and since the perception was that "rednecks" live mostly in the SE that is where the term came from.

To say the very least that area has evolved way past being the "redneck riviera".
And now back to 99L
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#111 Postby BIG » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:18 pm

Thanks for the welcome. I'll look into chopping it down a bit to get most of the good parts like the rain going sideways and the trees shaking for their lives. I didn't venture too far out my front and back doors, so a lot of the footage is just a huge downpour. It is actually the sound that creeps me out.
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Re: INVEST 99L Models Thread

#112 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:20 pm

182
WHXX01 KWBC 161841
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1841 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20071016 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071016 1800 071017 0600 071017 1800 071018 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.2N 94.3W 25.8N 94.5W 28.0N 93.7W 30.7N 90.9W
BAMD 24.2N 94.3W 25.6N 94.1W 28.2N 92.4W 31.6N 87.5W
BAMM 24.2N 94.3W 25.8N 94.3W 28.3N 92.8W 31.5N 88.8W
LBAR 24.2N 94.3W 26.2N 93.9W 28.8N 92.6W 31.8N 89.3W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 29KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071018 1800 071019 1800 071020 1800 071021 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.8N 86.0W 41.1N 76.3W 48.9N 69.0W 51.4N 65.1W
BAMD 35.1N 80.2W 35.0N 65.0W 30.7N 61.3W 29.8N 60.4W
BAMM 34.6N 82.8W 40.8N 73.0W 49.2N 64.3W 54.8N 59.2W
LBAR 35.3N 84.3W 40.8N 70.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 30KTS 24KTS 22KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 28KTS 33KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.2N LONCUR = 94.3W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 93.8W DIRM12 = 320DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.1N LONM24 = 92.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#113 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:40 pm

Pretty sloppy looking and sheared surface circulation.

If it turned Northeast and picked up speed, the relative shear would decrease somewhat. Only chance it has to become a TD, IMHO.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#114 Postby poof121 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:44 pm

Is it my imagination or is the convection trying to wrap around a center around 25N 90W?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#115 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 3:41 pm

poof121 wrote:Is it my imagination or is the convection trying to wrap around a center around 25N 90W?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html


I believe it is your "imagination". On that loop it looks like the center spinning to the NW near 25N 95W.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#116 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:17 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 162116
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER
THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WWWW

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#117 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:18 pm

The roller coaster invest. It could develop...could be a depression soon....not expected to develop...could develop...not expected to develop.
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#118 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:48 pm

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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#119 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 16, 2007 5:14 pm

poof121 wrote:Is it my imagination or is the convection trying to wrap around a center around 25N 90W?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html


There is no LLC near 25N/90W. You should not be using infrared satellite imagery to identify a weak LLC. Use surface observations and high-resolution visible imagery for such purposes.

I was able to identify at least 3 low-level "eddies" rotating around a broad surface low this afternoon. As of about 4pm, all 3 eddies were weakening and the low was less well-defined. Development chances look remote before the system moves ashore in 24 hours or so.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#120 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:02 pm

I hope some of the Gulf moisture gets into the SE USA, but clears out of Western Virginia by Saturday afternoon. Dario Franchitti, the Scotsman, will make his NASCAR debut in a Dodge Ram pickup truck. Well, a race car that sort of resembles a Dodge Ram.


GOMEX IR loop, maybe suggesting low level feature starting to head NNE, and showing some serious storms being sheared away from the disturbance.
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