Ed Mahmoud wrote:JB alert- may or may not become a TC, but vorticity and moisture will be drawn up ahead of next mid-lat system, and help spark a most impressive October severe weather outbreak. He implies whatever center develops will parallel the Texas coast and move in in extreme East Texas/SW Louisiana.
If GFS is even close to right on shear, this would be in ballpark 20 m/s (~40 knot) shear when North of 25º, which would seem to suggest nothing would develop.
I don't see how. Wouldn't the cold front (I use that term loosely as our 88/89 highs for the week are only expected to drop to a chilly 84 on Saturday) keep whatever it is well east of TX/SW LA? Since it's not really expected to amount to much, it doesn't really matter, but I just thought that whatever it becomes would sail off to the NE toward the eastern GOM.
I'm ready for a real cold front... my Cowboys jacket is waiting for me.