INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

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southerngale
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Re: INVEST 99L : Yucatan Peninsula : Discussions & Images

#61 Postby southerngale » Mon Oct 15, 2007 1:07 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:JB alert- may or may not become a TC, but vorticity and moisture will be drawn up ahead of next mid-lat system, and help spark a most impressive October severe weather outbreak. He implies whatever center develops will parallel the Texas coast and move in in extreme East Texas/SW Louisiana.

If GFS is even close to right on shear, this would be in ballpark 20 m/s (~40 knot) shear when North of 25º, which would seem to suggest nothing would develop.


I don't see how. Wouldn't the cold front (I use that term loosely as our 88/89 highs for the week are only expected to drop to a chilly 84 on Saturday) keep whatever it is well east of TX/SW LA? Since it's not really expected to amount to much, it doesn't really matter, but I just thought that whatever it becomes would sail off to the NE toward the eastern GOM.

I'm ready for a real cold front... my Cowboys jacket is waiting for me.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#62 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Oct 15, 2007 1:54 pm

Looks like just a wave with a bit of sheared turning on the end. But the wave is sort of moving towards Texas.

Pretty good cu field here already w/o any tropical influences.


I'm more interested if the Pacific system eventually tries to come over the Sierra Madre with a middle level center once the cold front gets here, ala Hurricane Rosa, when the San Jacinto river scoured out gas pipelines and caught fire.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#63 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Oct 15, 2007 2:09 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Looks like just a wave with a bit of sheared turning on the end. But the wave is sort of moving towards Texas.

Pretty good cu field here already w/o any tropical influences.


I'm more interested if the Pacific system eventually tries to come over the Sierra Madre with a middle level center once the cold front gets here, ala Hurricane Rosa, when the San Jacinto river scoured out gas pipelines and caught fire.



I can still see the cu field and the blue skies between to the East out the window, although the heavy rain shower is reducing the view somewhat.


NOAA Nesdis has a 99L floater that seems very dark at the moment.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#64 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 15, 2007 2:39 pm

This doesn't even appear to qualify as an invest now. Just a weak wave axis with scattered thunderstorms. Development chances about zero. Northern part of wave is only 175 miles off the Louisiana coast. The thunderstorms should be steered northward and move inland between LA and the FL Panhandle on Tue/Wed.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#65 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 15, 2007 3:38 pm

Naked spiral in BOC. If that front over Texas catches it and turns it into the deeper convection associated with the front we could see a change in depth to this. Watch for N then NE turn.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#66 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2007 4:18 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 152113
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME
WWWW

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#67 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Oct 15, 2007 4:20 pm

Well the NHC gives 99L hope. I'm the kind of person that never
writes anything completely off in the tropics until it's very obvious.
I don't think that is case right now but you would not be looking at anything
more then a rain maker and some stiff winds at worst right now if something
were to develop (TD or TS) beyond what it is now. The chances are low
for that right now. IMO
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#68 Postby lrak » Mon Oct 15, 2007 4:55 pm

My "surfing gut" says it will develope :cheesy: SCA already here, but to darn choppy, need some offshore winds.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#69 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 15, 2007 6:47 pm

lrak wrote:My "surfing gut" says it will develop :cheesy: SCA already here, but to darn choppy, need some offshore winds.


My "meteorological gut" says you won't even know this weak disturbance passes 300-400 miles to the east. There's just nothing to it but a couple of thunderstorms, and they're already moving NNE toward Louisiana. The SCA are for thunderstorms ahead of a weak cold front, not this weak wave.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#70 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 15, 2007 7:05 pm

Wxman57 do you think we will see another hurricane anywhere this year?
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#71 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2007 7:14 pm

8:05 PM TWD:

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO PRODUCING ELY SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. A 1006
MB LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 25N92W
27N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 90W-92W...AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
87W-91W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER SE TEXAS MOVING E
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 94W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W PRODUCING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE
SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.


http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

In other words no Tropical Cyclone from this.However,the good news is that beneficial rains will fall in areas that need it badly because of the deficits of precipitation.
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#72 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2007 9:26 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 160225
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#73 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 15, 2007 9:43 pm

Blown_away wrote:Wxman57 do you think we will see another hurricane anywhere this year?


It's interesting that Phil Klotzbach & Dr. Gray predict 10 more hurricane days in Oct/Nov. So far this year, we've had only 10 hurricane days. Seems unlikely we'll see so much activity given the pattern out there now. But I wouldn't rule out another few named storms, maybe even a hurricane.

Oh, and Bones says "stick a fork in it"...

Image
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#74 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 15, 2007 10:28 pm

Too Weak.
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INVEST 99L Models Thread

#75 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2007 10:39 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 160213
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0213 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20071016 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071016 0000 071016 1200 071017 0000 071017 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.5N 93.0W 22.5N 94.8W 23.4N 96.2W 24.4N 97.2W
BAMD 21.5N 93.0W 22.2N 94.1W 22.7N 95.1W 24.0N 95.9W
BAMM 21.5N 93.0W 22.3N 94.5W 23.2N 96.0W 24.5N 96.9W
LBAR 21.5N 93.0W 22.8N 94.2W 24.5N 94.8W 26.7N 94.7W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 28KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071018 0000 071019 0000 071020 0000 071021 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.6N 97.4W 28.0N 94.3W 28.5N 86.3W 28.3N 78.1W
BAMD 26.4N 94.3W 32.2N 81.6W 38.3N 65.9W 41.1N 55.2W
BAMM 26.6N 95.7W 31.8N 85.0W 39.6N 74.2W 47.9N 65.2W
LBAR 29.8N 92.8W 37.2N 81.7W 40.3N 65.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 32KTS 24KTS
DSHP 30KTS 29KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.5N LONCUR = 93.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 20.6N LONM12 = 90.5W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 19.0N LONM24 = 88.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... mid=&size=
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#76 Postby lrak » Mon Oct 15, 2007 10:51 pm

Sanibel wrote:Too Weak.


Image


Did Spock check this thing out, you know he ran the show didn't you?

Bones...Pffft.


He da man...

Image
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#77 Postby tailgater » Tue Oct 16, 2007 12:19 am

It probably wont develop, but it doesn't know it's dead yet!
Looks like the best low level structure to date and some t-storms firing right over the center, I think it could gain a shear TD status. The fat lady may be warming up though, let's wait until the morning to see what it looks like this could be last chance of anything tropical coming ashore this season.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
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Re: INVEST 99L Models Thread

#78 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2007 5:22 am

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0720 UTC TUE OCT 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20071016 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071016 0600 071016 1800 071017 0600 071017 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 93.8W 22.9N 95.5W 23.7N 96.7W 24.6N 97.5W
BAMD 22.0N 93.8W 22.6N 94.5W 23.6N 95.1W 25.6N 94.2W
BAMM 22.0N 93.8W 22.8N 95.2W 23.9N 96.3W 25.7N 96.1W
LBAR 22.0N 93.8W 23.2N 94.6W 25.1N 95.3W 27.8N 94.6W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 29KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071018 0600 071019 0600 071020 0600 071021 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.5N 97.6W 27.2N 94.0W 26.8N 91.7W 28.3N 95.2W
BAMD 28.2N 90.8W 34.8N 78.3W 42.5N 65.5W 50.5N 50.3W
BAMM 28.0N 92.9W 34.4N 80.8W 43.1N 73.6W 50.1N 66.0W
LBAR 31.0N 91.6W 39.4N 78.4W 38.9N 64.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 32KTS 36KTS 34KTS 27KTS
DSHP 32KTS 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 93.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 92.2W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 19.9N LONM24 = 89.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#79 Postby vegastar » Tue Oct 16, 2007 5:23 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: INVEST 99L : Gulf of Mexico : Discussions & Images

#80 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2007 6:52 am

Image

Very good news for those areas that are in deficit of rainfall this year.
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